Citi Field is currently buried in snow, as is the rest of the northeast, with many Mets fans only wanting to focus on warmer climates and when the team will head south. However, in these next three or so weeks is a chance for a GM to squeeze in a last-minute trade before his team reports for camp. In the case of Sandy Alderson, the general manager has infrequently made trades since the fall of 2010. Even with a grand total of zero trades during the offseason, Alderson has still made some deals. Of those deals, some have changed the franchise while others have caused a face-palm. So which one was the best and which was the worst? Let’s take a trip down memory lane and see.
3rd Worst: June 18, 2013: Mets send Collin McHugh to the Colorado Rockies for Eric Young Jr.
This trade is an interesting one especially considering the circumstances of the exact time it happened. It comes as no coincidence that the Mets traded a struggling, once promising right-hander as future ace Zack Wheeler took the hill that same night. This move was made to improve a station-to-station team and pave the road for the complement to Matt Harvey.
Positives:
It remains easy to dislike Young Jr. considering his bat, but without him the Mets probably would have lost 100 games in 2013. Young Jr. provided a boost to a struggling offense by adding an important speed component. From April 1, 2013 until June 17, 2013, the Mets were 25-40, but from his debut until the end of the season the team was 47-48. One game under .500 is not particularly impressive yet it is better than 15 under with far more games. Young Jr. earned a stolen base title, mixed well in the clubhouse, and grew up wanting to play for the Mets. Not the best player to participate for this team, but certainly not the worst.
Negatives:
Considering the positives just listed how could this trade be considered negative? Well, the Mets gave up a pitcher that had a better ERA+ than Jacob deGrom in 2014. McHugh completely flopped in Colorado, as most pitchers do, and was transferred to the Houston Astros. McHugh had started his career in Houston just as he had done in Queens – a brilliant start. He would go on to get stronger as the season progressed and finish with respectable numbers. The Mets gave up a hidden talent that ultimately shined with another struggling organization.
It’s hard to call this trade the worst because McHugh still remains far from proven and the Rockies did not exactly make out like bandits from the deal. Nevertheless, the Mets gave up a potential arm for the future rotation.
2nd Worst Trade:
July 12, 2011: Mets trade Francisco Rodriguez to the Milwaukee Brewers for Danny Herrera and Adrian Rosario
This trade was very strange considering it occurred a full two weeks before the trade deadline when teams tend to become more desperate. Alderson probably pulled the trigger because Rodriguez was performing quite well and Alderson was afraid he would regress too quickly. So in the end, Alderson got two players that did not amount to much.
Positives:
Not much to say here, other than that it was great to see the departure of a hot-head and underperformer. In addition, it was actually pretty cool to see a screwball from Herrera during his brief stint in Queens.
Negatives:
Where to begin? At the time, there were a couple of teams looking to upgrade in the bullpen and the Mets just settled for the first offer they got. This was an awful deal considering how well Rodriguez pitched in 2011 and this past season. Additionally, the two players that the Mets got in the deal were completely forgotten. Herrera pitched well in his 16 appearances, but never pitched in the majors again. Rosario never even sniffed the majors before departing the organization in 2013. This deal only served as payroll relief and was a waste of a salary dump.
Worst trade:
December 7, 2011: Mets send Angel Pagan to the San Francisco Giants for Ramon Ramirez and Andres Torres
Alderson, in 2011, was on a mission to completely eliminate players that would cost more than five million dollars and arguably still is on that path. In an attempt to strengthen the bullpen and go cheaper in the outfield, he pulled the trigger on a deal that seemed almost reasonable at the time. Two fan-favorite centerfielders coming off down seasons… why not?
Positives: There are very few positives to this trade. Ramirez worked in and out of a jam on opening day, which was fairly exciting. Torres was actually pretty solid in the clutch, but did not do much else. Besides the return, watching Pagan win the World Series was bitter-sweet.
Negatives: This one speaks for itself. The return that the Mets actiually got for a fan-favorite was a complete bust. Torres was coming off a down year and managed to get even worse. Ramirez never amounted to much while he pitched in Queens and consistently gave up runs. Pagan developed into an all-star candidate and turned in extremely solid numbers. The worst part about the trade is that both Torres and Ramirez ended up signing with the Giants after 2012. Even though both of them were busts for the Giants in 2013, it was rough watching all of the players involved going back to the World Champions.
3rd Best Trade: August 27, 2013:
Mets trade Marlon Byrd and John Buck to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Dilson Herrera and a player to be named later (Vic Black)
This trade was very smart considering where the Mets were going in 2013: nowhere. While it was hard to see Harvey go down with injury only days before, the deal had to be done. Both Byrd and Buck were on the final year of their contract and they were not going to be re-signed, so the Mets had to get something out of these players. What did they get? A future all-star and a lock-down set-up man.
Positives:
When Byrd and Buck were shipped over to Pittsburgh, it flew under the radar due to Harvey’s injury. However, the players that the Mets got in return are complete steals. Every Mets fan has heard of both these players by now: Vic Black and Dilson Herrera. Black was supposed to make the team out of spring training, but his control issues kept him from traveling north. After a brief stint with Las Vegas, he came over to Queens and has been unbelievable. His opponents have a .458 OPS against him with RISP and is equally effective against both right-handers and left-handers. Look for him to have a bright future here. Herrera, on the other hand, had a brief stint at the end of 2014- and he did not disappoint. His OPS+ was actually 103 and was very solid in the field. He showed flashes of having an all-star career and could be apart of a championship team.
Negatives:
Harvey was already heartbroken because of his injury and removing his battery mate and trusted friend from the locker room did not help. In addition, watching Byrd play in Philadelphia for one season was not the easiest task even if he struck out 185 times.
2nd Best Trade:
July 28, 2011: Mets send Carlos Beltran to the San Francisco Giants for Zack Wheeler
The Giants were in the midst of another playoff berth and possibly another championship. The Mets had bluffed 55-51 record with Beltran, but knew that there was a long road ahead of them. Alderson took the smart route and traded their all-star outfielder in exchange for a top-100 pitching prospect. This signaled, if not already known, a long and treacherous rebuild. But the Mets got Wheeler!
Positives:
Beltran never led the Mets to a pennant, evidently, but the guy is commonly considered one of the best post-season hitters of all time backed up by his 1.128 career playoff OPS. The guy deserves a chance to win it all. On the other hand, Wheeler has been up and down throughout his brief career while demonstrating overpowering dominance at times. His shutout against the Marlins in 2014 and 12-strikeout performance against the Padres in 2013 show his true talent. Within 1-2 years Wheeler should be the 1B that we all expect behind Harvey.
Negatives:
What if? That is the question behind 2011. What if Alderson had acquired a starting pitcher at the trade deadline instead of selling off Beltran? Would that have been the smartest idea? Probably not, but think about the offense that the 2011 Mets had. They scored 718 runs and showed no signs of slowing down until Beltran left. Ruben Tejada, Lucas Duda, Daniel Murphy, and Justin Turner were all surging right after Beltran was traded and they could have made the playoffs with a little luck. Then again, Wheeler might be better than having that question.
Best Trade:
December 17, 2012 Mets trade R.A. Dickey, Josh Thole, and Mike Nickeas to the Toronto Blue Jays for Wuilmer Becerra, Noah Syndergaard, John Buck, and Travis d’Arnaud
This might be one of the best trades in franchise history when it’s all said and done. The Mets traded their Cy Young Award winner and two underperforming catchers for a future ace pitcher and all-star catcher. Toronto was looking to complete their re-tool after a blockbuster deal with Miami and other signings, so they got a Cy Young winner.
Positives: While it hurt to see one of the greatest baseball stories leave Flushing, it brought in two future all-stars. d’Arnaud had just started to figure himself out during the second half of 2014 after slashing .272/.319/.486 following his call-up in mid-June. He has all the potential to actually be an all-star during 2015. In regard to Syndergaard, he struggled in the biggest hitter’s park in AAA. While his 4.60 ERA might drive some people away, his strikeout and walk rates were quite solid and ensure that he will make an impact during 2015. Letting go of the duo of Josh Thole and Mike Nickeas was a bonus in and of itself. Dickey has not been the same since heading above the border which proves the trade to have been a great move.
Negatives:
None if you discount watching one of the greatest guys in baseball move from Flushing. It was certainly tough on the average Mets fan. Other than that, this trade thus far has been a complete success.
Love the Byrd trade a potential home run as it stands right now. If they had resigned Byrd (cheaper and less years) instead of Granderson it would be sitting squarely as a potential grand slam.
I actually sort of like the Granderson signing, mostly because of Kevin Long’s arrival- but you’re right. Retaining Byrd would have been similar to the trade with the Giants: keeping the majority of the players in a deal.
Another way to break this down is trading ML players for minor league talent and trading players for major league talent.
Trading future HOF outfielders, sitting Cy Young winners and proven veteran talent for minor leaguers Alderson does well.
Trying to add major league talent in trades, we are better off keeping what we have, his record here and in Oakland aren’t to good.
The K-Rod deal was actually o the good trade list in my opinion. K-Rod had a no trade clause that included Milwakee. That no-trade clause would have seriously hampered Alderson’s ability to trade the hot-headed closer. As part of his contract K-Rod’s agent was required to file the no trade clause by a certain date. He missed the filing date so Alderson moved fast to trade K-Rod before his agents caught onto the mistake.
I didn’t remember there being a problem with filings, 2011 was a funky year to be a Mets fan. While it was impressive to actually move K-rod, I still think that they could have gotten a better return for a guy who was having a solid season.
I agree a thousand percent with Rob. Sandy knows how to get prospects for veterans but now that it’s time to do the reverse he’s gun shy.
I agree as well. At this point it remains a little ridiculous that Alderson has not made any trades to upgrade this team during this offseason or the past few offseasons. The term “gun shy” is absolutely correct, and it’s frustrating to endure.
Wait, was Angel Pagan really a “fan favorite”? In a relative sense, that worst trade doesn’t look too bad…
Doug,
Pagan was the starting CFer on a WS winning team. We got squat from the two players we received. I’d expect a little more than that in return. Don’t forget he wasn’t a token player on that WS winner his play earned him a nice long term contract in return somebody liked what they got in that trade and it wasn’t us.
Pagan was solid for the Mets, until he crashed into that cement wall with no padding.
In regards to Pagan after he was traded that he was not good for the clubhouse chemistry of the Mets. I don’t remember exact details if he did not get along with someone or if he was not happy with the direction the Mets were going, but he needed to go for that rather than playing ability and prior to 2011, Torres had some nice seasons posting an OPS over .800 in 2010 and 2011. If it was not for his clubhouse presence than it was a gamble on him returning to that and it did not work out.
It seems to be a recurring theme with the Mets when a player gets too expensive for them and they don’t want to resign him because of that they trade him then bad mouth him in the press behind the anonymous sources facade. It must be a real selling point when you go talk to potential free agent signees.
“Hello there Mr Free Agent we need to stay within our limited budget and need you to accept a below market value contract to afford you but rest assured after we are done with you we’ll bad mouth you your way out of town, if your curious about that just ask Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, Jose Pagan or RA Dickey they’ll give you the list of baseless lies and accusations we like to use to slander your name publicly, just part of the fun you know.”
Rob,
I don’t think your point should be passed over. It speaks to the fact that some agents and players may look less kindly about coming to the Mets.
Many have blamed li’l jeffy for this. If that is the case, then Sandy should have spoken out or resigned. By doing neither he has compromised his integrity.
Adding up the Madoff affair, the Castergine charges, the dubious claims of increased ticket sales, the forked-tongue budget promises and the behind-the-back insinuations about players leads to the conclusion that this organization is not worthy of its fan support or the support of the new MLB
Commissioner.
Can we include missed opportunities?
Sandy and co keeps everything so tight-lipped that we Met fans barely hear any rumors, but from what we do know…
Mistakes:
Trading Ike for for Blake Taylor instead of Matt Joyce was a mistake.
Not getting in on the bidding for Doug Fister (and instead signing Colon)
Not trading Colon for whatever we could get.
Cowgill for Johnson
Positives:
Not trading Duda
Marte for Cowgill
TBD:
Niese for Miller
Niese for Miller?
http://metsblog.com/metsblog/mets-offered-niese-to-ms-for-brad-miller/
Great article Julian! It’s an interesting read. The only disagreement I had was the Colin McHugh deal. I’m a fan of McHugh, and love reading his blog. Although he has potential to become a solid pitcher, the Mets have a surplus of pitching, and acquired a good defensive left fielder who could provide a spark atop the lineup. I liked the deal, and although EYJr. is gone, it was fun watching him play for the Mets, and Alderson took a chance to help out the offense. After all, we have eight guys who can be starters as we speak.
Agreed. At the time, we were projecting McHugh to be a AAAA type guy, and EY Jr. filled a need at the time of the trade, a decent LF bat with speed. No one could have predicted what McHugh would turn into.
Which, ultimately, should provide another lesson: patience when it comes to these young arms we are starting to see. I think Mets fans have been spoiled with the likes of Doc Gooden mowing down the best hitters in the world at 19 and 20 years old. As we begin to see these young guns develop, we should probably cut them some slack as we see the growing pains that accompany their progression.
It’s an indication how few trades that Alderson has made that two of the three that ended up on the bad list weren’t bad at all.
To the specific case of the EY-McHugh deal, no one shed a tear for him when he was dealt and the Rockies didn’t get anything from him, either. It took a third organization to unlock McHugh and only a radical transformation made it happen.
With the Mets, McHugh threw a good amount of breaking pitches — 38.6%. But the Astros had him throw even more sliders and curves — 55%.
I don’t think any starting pitcher can survive for long throwing that many breaking balls. It’s too bad we don’t have pitch breakdowns 30+ years ago. If memory serves, Steve Stone sold out on breaking balls and ended up winning the Cy Young Award in 1980. He only pitched one more year in the majors and was done at age 33.
I agree on the McHugh trade, I saw it as a positive attempt to help the real-time NY Mets on the field for a guy they had no use for.
My takeaway is that I always cringe when I read that Sandy is “good” at trading proven MLers for prospects. It’s the easiest trade in baseball to make. Granted, Sandy has done well with his prospects — a little luck, and some good scouting — but overall it’s not a difficult type of trade to make; the deck is stacked in his favor.
Most teams, other than the Alderson-Wilpon Mets, place a higher premium on the “present” over the “future,” realizing that games are played in the here & now. Any GM willing to sacrifice the present has a huge advantage over another GM who is trying to actually win games right now.
Worst deal: Jose Reyes.
According to this study 70% of BA Top 100 prospects bust.
http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992424/success-and-failure-rates-of-top-mlb-prospects
Knowing that’s the case, why is it that trading vets for prospects is the “easiest” to make? Why are there so many counter-examples to this? Sure, Alderson got Zack Wheeler for Beltran — why didn’t the Expos get more for Pedro Martinez? Why didn’t the Marlins get more for Miguel Cabrera? Why didn’t the Mets get more for Bobby Bonilla? Why didn’t the Padres get more for Fred McGriff?
Alderson should get raked over the coals for not doing more to help the current team, whether that year was 2015 or 2012. I just don’t think it’s a fair criticism to rate his trade for prospects as ones that anyone could have done.
I said he did a good job with those trades. But I still maintain that it’s relatively easy to trade an established, quality veteran in return for prospects.
I dont know Brian. He needed to find a desperate GM that wanted a power bat…so boom…off to SF. He wants a #1 pitcher and gets it. Anthopoulos was desperate for pitching and so out goes the Cy Young winner and in comes the #1 catcher and (I think) #1 pitching prospect.
You want my stuff? then be prepared to hand over a #1. Thats not a hard strategy to follow. However, the difference in the exchange is so profound (all star v prospect) that its nearly impossible to make a real meaning other than it shed dollars and brought back infinite hope, which sounds like a big fat win.
I actually have some doubt about the universal high praise for these trades. All things considered, I would way rather have had Beltran’s production over Wheeler. Say anything you will, but I dont think that “win” for Sandy is as clear as everyone paints it. Anyway, it seems he certainly trades down much better than making a lateral trade, and we have no clue about his capacity to give up youth for proven talent. Overall, I rank his trade performance as below average.
As much as I liked to pretend otherwise – since Beltran was one of my favorite Mets ever – there was no way he was re-signing with the Mets. Beltran’s career in Queens had two more months to go and a clause in his contract kept them from offering arbitration, so no draft pick. The fact that Alderson was able to get a guy who so far has returned 2.4 fWAR was a coup. That’s already twice as much as the Giants got from Beltran.
My opinion is that you’re letting your disappointment in Wheeler’s output to date cloud your objectivity in accurately rating this deal
Like a said, the rental market can do strange things to GMs who have playoff contenders. Id mention Billy Beane, but hes just flat out strange!
On the flip side, the Giants have done well without Wheeler, so while Beltran was not the answer for the Giants, its not like they havent won 2 more World Series’ since then without Wheeler. By contrast, we still cant break .500!
“My opinion is that you’re letting your disappointment in Wheeler’s output to date cloud your objectivity in accurately rating this deal”
So objectivity…. how do we even do that?
Is simply getting any major league returns from a trade enough to call it a “win”?
Is it getting “more” production than the guy we traded away a “win”? Do we have to get double? triple?
Is it getting the player who turned out having the “best” career from all the trade possibilities? Or is it getting the best consensus prospect at the time of the trade? Quantity or quality?
Does a playoff appearance change any of this?
Is it a “loss” if the player bombs for your team but you trade away that guy to another team and he clicks there?
Just something to think about.
“On July 28, 2011, the Mets traded Beltran to the San Francisco Giants in exchange for pitching prospect Zack Wheeler. The Mets also sent $4 million cash to the Giants to cover Beltran’s remaining $6.5 million contract, which expired at the end of the 2011 season.”
So, the Giants paid $2.5 million for 1.2 fWAR of production from Beltran and did not make the post season.
FanGraphs rates Beltran producing $5.3 million so they received $2.8 million of surplus value.
Meanwhile, the Mets have paid Wheeler less than $1 million for 2.4 fWAR. FG assigns Wheeler’s MLB production so far as worth $12.7 million. Let’s round up and say they’ve paid Wheeler $1 million and then add in the $4 million they sent to the Giants. So far, Wheeler has produced $7.7 million of surplus value.
The Mets maintain their asset while the Giants have nothing to show for Beltran. They paid less and received double the production and to date are nearly $5 million ahead on the transaction, despite the money they sent to the Giants. I don’t see any other way to look at this except as a huge win for the Mets.
As for your list:
1. No
2. That’s certainly one way. I have no idea why it would have to be double or triple.
3. Again another way. No. Could be either
4. Certainly has to be accounted for.
5. Depends on what you get from the third team.
I mean, it’s not a win for the Rockies that Collin McHugh turned in a strong season for the Astros. I know that wasn’t a trade but the principle holds.
Let’s continue with this exercise.
1. Suppose the Giants did make the playoffs. And let’s say they won the divisional round but lost the league championship. How would your analysis change?
2. Using the excess method you described… it’s almost impossible for the team who trades for the prospect to “lose”…It would have to be a pretty big bust for the prospect to not accrue more excess value in the 6-7 team control years than the MLB player in .5-1 season. Are you willing to accept a method that says a trade is “good” after year 2 but “bad” after year 6?
3. Extended from #1/2 and the reasoning for double/triple. Dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. Is a WAR this season worth the same as a WAR next season? Is a WAR in a playoff season worth more than a WAR in a non-playoff season?
1. I don’t believe you would be able to accurately assign a dollar value. Obviously it would be worth something. My personal belief is that barring a World Series appearance, it would still be a win for the Mets at this point. I think this is something where rational people can disagree. Let’s say Beltran led them to the WS and then hit a game-winning homer. In the minds of Giants fan, that would make the trade justified regardless of how Wheeler’s career turned out.
2. Did you see the link I posted earlier today which said that 70% of all players in BA’s Top 100 Prospect List bust? It would be very easy for the team getting the prospect to lose. Also, there’s nothing keeping the team getting the vet from re-signing him. Beltran’s added 4.6 fWAR since the deal, even including last year’s negative number WAR. And certainly a trade can look one way after year two and the exact opposite way after year six.
3. I think you could argue this either way.
One thing you’ve said in the past is that you have to look at the consensus at the time the deal was made. I believe this is true but I disagree with how much weight you put on that. I’m not sure of my own personal weight but you have to look at how it was viewed at the time along with how it actually turned out. I mean, the Mets were excited when they got Alex Ochoa in the Bobby Bonilla deal but the fact that Ochoa only produced 1.2 fWAR in three seasons with the Mets has to play in the overall evaluation of the deal.
As for Wheeler-Beltran specifically, I was excited at the time because I didn’t think a rental with no chance of FA compensation was going to bring much back in return. In my mind, it was a win at the time it was done and it’s been a win in actual production. And I’m bullish on Wheeler adding more value to the Mets’ side in the coming years.
“One thing you’ve said in the past is that you have to look at the consensus at the time the deal was made. I believe this is true but I disagree with how much weight you put on that.”
Ah. you know me too well. I was trying to get to this point but you’ve already figured it out.
“I think this is something where rational people can disagree. Let’s say Beltran led them to the WS and then hit a game-winning homer. In the minds of Giants fan, that would make the trade justified regardless of how Wheeler’s career turned out.”
I distinctly separate the judgement from the outcome. You can have bad decisions leading to good outcomes and vice versa.
In real life, people totally follow this logic. If i bet 1 million on the Mets winning the WS people would call me stupid. If the Mets happened to win, people would still likely call my decision stupid, and then say that i got lucky.
But for some reason, when it comes to sports trades, people seem to want to mesh the outcome with the judgement and i don’t quite understand why.
“Did you see the link I posted earlier today which said that 70% of all players in BA’s Top 100 Prospect List bust?”
I just read it.. and Wheeler would be labeled a “bust” as of right now in that study. Wheeler’s averaged 1.15 fWAR in his first 2 seasons, and bust is <1.5 fWAR.
who traded billy wagner again was that omar or was that sandy ? cause i thought that trade was horrible we should have kept him and just got the 1st round draft pick i think the braves ended up getting that one
He was traded by Omar Minaya- back in 2009.
You missed the key reason Rodriguez was moved and why it can’t be considered one of the worst trades since they needed to makeit. Here is what Fangraphs said at the time:
“Rodriguez has a $17.5 million vesting option for 2012, and it becomes guaranteed if he finishes 55 games this season. Considering Rodriguez has already appeared in 42 games this season, with the vast majority of his appearances coming at the end of the game, his option would have surely vested if he remained with the Mets. The Mets simply wanted to get out from under that onerous option; from the looks of it, they were willing to trade him to any team willing to take him. And I certainly can’t blame them for that”
I also can’t see how you can consider the Colin McHugh trade bad when he stunk up the joint on the team he was traded to. They could have always gotten him back if they wanted to. My definition of a terrible trade is when the player, such as Angel Pagan, plays great on the team he was traded to and not for another team.
I take Lagares over Pagan all day every day. Pagan was not a good fit, and had wildly different seasons. He has a terrible arm. And now? He’s spent huge stretches of time on DL. Has he been better in SF? I suppose, but I’m happy he’s not a Met.
Well.. Pagan would have been a FA (if we let him walk) before Lagares was called up so it’s not like you had to choose between the two. And Lagares is just as injury prone as Pagan, the only exception that Lagares and his 20s body is bouncing back quicker than Pagan’s 30s body.
The Pagan trade was a good one that just didn’t work out for the Mets. Actually, the only 2 times Sandy traded for a MLB player i thought were great trades (the other being Cowgill), but they both didn’t work out.