Next up in our projection series is Zack Wheeler.
Wheeler’s first full season in the major leagues was promising as it was frustrating – with him realizing improvements in most of his underlying peripheral stats including strikeout rate, walk rate, GB%, FIP and xFIP. More importantly, Wheeler was able to toss 185.1 innings last year over 32 starts, staying healthy the entire year and finishing with an 11-11 record.
Despite the improvements, Wheeler wasn’t fully able to make the leap to becoming the ace he is expected to be, partially because of his difficulties pitching late into ballgames. He was only able to complete seven innings in a game twice and only pitched beyond the seventh once, a complete game shutout on June 19th against Miami.
The season got off to a rough start for Wheeler, he posted a 3.99 ERA in April, then a 4.59 mark in May. He showed signs of turning the corner in June, pitching 6.2 scoreless against the Cubs on the third of the month, and the aforementioned shutout against the Marlins, but also had two of his worst outings of the year: allowing four runs in 3.2 innings to the San Francisco Giants on June 8th; and the low point of his season, surrendering six runs in 2.0 innings to the Oakland Athletics on the 25th.
After that outing against the A’s the soon-to-be-25-year-old Wheeler went on a tear, notching nine quality starts in a row with a 5-0 record, striking out 54 and walking just 25 in 58 innings. Other than a late-season hiccup to the Washington Nationals on September 17th, where he was touched up for six runs in 4.0 innings, there was no real tail off at the end of the year.
With all signs pointing upward for Wheeler in 2015, here’s what the Mets360 writers project from the hard-throwing righty:
| Wheeler | IP | ERA | K | BB | HR | FIP | 6IP+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albanesius | 190 | 3.20 | 195 | 59 | 12 | 2.90 | 73% |
| Ferguson | 190 | 3.35 | 200 | 70 | 12 | 3.02 | 75% |
| Hangley | 185 | 3.31 | 210 | 65 | 12 | 2.83 | 72% |
| Joura | 191 | 3.33 | 193 | 74 | 14 | 3.29 | 84% |
| Koehler | 190 | 3.39 | 182 | 70 | 13 | 3.28 | 75% |
| Netter | 210 | 3.12 | 191 | 68 | 14 | 3.22 | 75% |
| Newman | 180 | 3.55 | 170 | 70 | 12 | 3.34 | 80% |
| Parker | 165 | 3.75 | 160 | 75 | 15 | 3.81 | 65% |
| Rogan | 207 | 3.20 | 210 | 84 | 16 | 3.39 | 72% |
| Singer | 203.1 | 3.31 | 214 | 68 | 13 | 2.93 | 75% |
| Slape | 190 | 3.39 | 200 | 71 | 12 | 3.04 | 80% |
| Vasile | 185 | 3.12 | 210 | 55 | 12 | 2.66 | 40% |
| Walendin | 185 | 3.71 | 175 | 83 | 13 | 3.57 | 81% |
For the most part, we see more incremental improvements for Wheeler in 2015, but nothing that could be categorized as a breakout season. As a group we have his innings increasing slightly, his strikeout rate basically holding steady at just over a batter per inning, and his walk rate declining by about half a batter per nine innings.
Patrick Albaneisus, Charlie Hangley, and Joe Vasile are the most bullish on Wheeler for this season, both of whom see his control problems being solved with FIPs of under 3.00 being posted. On the other hand, Doug Parker sees Wheeler taking a step backward.
Here’s how the Mets360 Projection stacks up to the Steamer and ZiPS projection systems:
| IP | ERA | K | BB | HR | FIP | 6IP+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets360 | 190 | 3.33 | 193 | 70 | 13 | 3.16 | 75% |
| Steamer | 153 | 3.88 | 149 | 63 | 13 | 3.68 | |
| ZiPS | 175.2 | 3.48 | 172 | 67 | 15 | 3.59 |
Our projection is a bit more optimistic than the Steamer and ZiPS projections, but a good deal of that has to do with the innings numbers and the way that Steamer and ZiPS weights that past performance. If Wheeler can stay healthy, he should be able to outperform those projections in the absence of a massive regression. What do you think the Mets can expect out of Zack Wheeler in 2015?
15 game winner.
What he needs to do most is be at his best against our toughest competition. That 1-4 record and almost 6 era against the Nationals was one of the reasons we struggled so much against them. When your big guns misfire against your main competitors you can’t expect to win a division.
6 and 7 inning pitchers are the norms nowadays. Let’s hope that defense up the middle doesn’t lead to more hits, higher pitch counts and 5 inning games.
How can it not?
He goes 16-7. 2.98 ERA by closing out the season with back to back shutouts, going just below the 3.00 ERA level.
He strikes out 214 batters.
His walks are reigned in, a bit, but the defensive prowess of Murph saves him. (I had to throw this in).
he learns to pitch smarter, earlier in games, and takes the expected step that most of us knew he would.
Further prediction: he and Noah Syndegaard become good friends, through friendly competition. He, Noah, Matt Harvey and our floppy haired Rookie of the Year all buckle down to be the most serious minded and successful pitching rotation in major league baseball. They take notes for each other, push each other, an become known for getting to bed early, living, eating and sleeping baseball.
They all vow to get World Series rings.
How can you read these projections and not comment on Dave Singer’s 203.1? I love his boldness and precision.
Does that mean that should Wheeler throw 203.2 innings the incredible Singer blew it?
Wheeler’s control is inhibiting him from becoming a very good pitcher. The more experience he attains the better he should get at controlling his pitch counts and extending his innings. An improvement to a 3.5 BB/9 (75 BB) and an increase to 194 IP is not an unreasonable expectation. Not being able to pitch six full innings is detrimental for a pitching staff but Wheelers string of nine quality starts is a very positive sign going forward. Modest improvement over his 2014 numbers should be expected from this highly touted player.
Why any one would expect Wheeler to be an ace at age 25 is beyond my comprehension. An interesting stat would be to see if the Mets had scored 3 more runs in each of his starts how his record would have evolved and how we would not be so obsessed with him essentially only throwing 6 strong innings. The key to the Mets season is to score runs. If everyone just has an average season at the plate, not a breakout one, then we should see big things from the 2015 team.
If the first two batters get on base a lot more then 3-4-5-6 will drive them in. That was the formula in 1969 and certainly in 1986 with Mookie/Lenny and then Wally Backman who hit .320 and got on base in front of Keith, Kid and Darryl.
Baseball fans have lost their patience over the years. Did anyone agonize whether Tom Seaver would fail as a pitcher in the year after he went 25-7 in 1969 or did we assume we had found our ace? Did anyone really project the performance of the 1986 pitching staff with Ojeda (not Doc Gooden) essentially being the ace of the staff with 18 wins.
So back to Wheeler – if he turns out to be our third best starter behind Harvey and deGrom then we will have a great staff. When teams realize that there is not much of a break anywhere in the rotation that will give us an advantage. And much like our last two championship years, we will pull the trigger at some point in the season to pick up a verteran bat to fill a void and bring us closer to a parade down Broadway.
Keep the faith. I have since 1962 – and believe me it has not been easy. Let’s go Mets!!!
Just so i have something on record,
179 IP, 3.85 ERA, 175 K, 76 walks, 19 HRs, 3.85 FIP.
4 starts of 7+ IP