Young pitching, developing offense, and a mediocre defense…these are three adjectives to describe what the Mets will look like when entering 2015. This offseason, the Mets picked up Michael Cuddyer, lost Gonzalez Germen & Eric Young Jr., and are getting ready to clear Matt Harvey and Bobby Parnell from Tommy John’s Surgery. Of course, there are still some questions looming over the Mets such as their shortstop situation, and what will happen to their current seven or eight man starting rotation. Names such as Dillon Gee, Bartolo Colon, and Jon Niese. have all been thrown into trade rumors, but the likelihood of all of them being dealt is rather thin. However, there are other players who may end up wearing new uniforms by the end of 2015.
Jennry Mejia: Mejia was the Mets’ “official” closer in 2014, and did an amazing job in the role. That being said, with Parnell coming back from Tommy John’s Surgery, Mejia is out of a job for the time being. But there is still hope for the young 25-year-old pitcher from the Dominican Republic. Last week, Mejia signed a one year, $2.595 million deal with the Mets, so they clearly would like to keep him more than they do Gee. In a developing bullpen, Mejia could bring life with both his enthusiasm, and ability to pitch multiple innings.
Verdict: Mejia will be the Mets’ Long Relief Pitcher
Bartolo Colon: When it comes to Colon, Mets fans either love him or cannot stand the sight of him (both literally and metaphorically). However, he is not as terrible as people are set to believe. Colon does bring experience to the Mets, which is vital with such a young starting rotation and team in general. Also, Colon will pitch his 190-200 innings a year, which will help the Mets when they need to shut down Harvey for a couple of starts toward the end of the season. Also, Colon is in the last year of his contract, so there is no harm in keeping the soon to retire pitcher as insurance in case another starter goes down.
Verdict: Colon will be the Mets’ fifth starter in 2015
Daniel Murphy: A fan favorite to the ball club, Murphy is one of the best players on the Mets’ roster. Murphy is a consistent upper .200’s-.300 hitter, and will swipe about 10-20 bases a year. Murphy is only 29 years old, and may end up testing free agency this coming offseason, which is good for the Mets. If Alderson decides not to trade Murphy to another team, then the Mets could give him a qualifying offer at the end of the season, which would mean he either stays with the ball club, or the Mets get a compensation pick in the 2016 First-Year Player Draft.
Verdict: Murphy remains the Mets’ starting second baseman
Dillon Gee: Although the rumors have cooled down lately, Gee has been one of the hottest pieces for the Mets in terms of trade rumors this offseason. According to multiple sources, the Colorado Rockies are interested in Gee, but the Mets cannot get a deal done in order to send him to the other side of the country. However, by season’s end…the two teams will come to terms on a trade, and Gee will be shipped out west.
Verdict: Gee will be traded to the Rockies by the All Star Break
Jon Niese: Left handed pitchers seem to be a necessity in today’s game…which is exactly why Niese will not be with the Mets too much longer. If Alderson is good at one thing, it is taking mediocre players (i.e. Carlos Beltran, Marlon Byrd, and John Buck), and getting prospects in return…which is definitely something he could do with Niese.
Verdict: Niese will be traded to a contender on the trade deadline
The Mets have made few in-season trades since Alderson took over as General Manager, but 2015 may just be a turning point. With an overloaded rotation, the Mets will have to make a move both before, and during the season in order to get everything to work out. These moves may not ensure the Mets as a true contender in 2015, but they will get them close.
A couple of quibbles:
— Jenrry Mejia’s contact was signed to avoid arbitration. I don’t think the $2.595 million deal is any indication that they want to keep him long -term or if they do, how much they do. If he continues to be close to lights-out — and the pre-season consensus is that Parnell will begin 2015 on the DL, anyway — he’s a prime candidate to be dealt when Parnell does return.
— Carlos Beltran a “mediocre player?????”
Where do I begin? You are pretty much wrong about everything you said.
First of all, Parnell is a free agent at the end of this season and the Mets are not going to extend him. So, why make HIM the closer and mess with Mejia (who the Mets own the rights to for years to come). Regardless of what Terry said, Parnell will not even start the season with the team, and when he returns will not be the closer. Also, Mejia will not be the long man either.
Secondly, the Mets will not offer Murphy a qualifying offer at 16 mill. If they were going to do that, why not just extend him to a 4 yr deal at 10 mill per. They won’t do that either. Murphy is gone after the season or before, but the Mets will not get compensation for him by issuing him a QO.
Since when are Carlos Beltran and Marlon Byrd mediocre players? The reason why Sandy got value for them is because they were both valuable players (as evidenced by what they are both still doing).
Finally, Niese. Yes, he might be traded, but I think it is more likely that Gee and Colon don’t finish the season with the Mets, not Niese.
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Respectfully, more quibbles:
I don’t think there’s any way in the world that Mejia becomes a long man. While he was nowhere near “amazing” in the role, he did demonstrate the temperament for the late innings. Also, Parnell won’t be ready.
There’s almost no way the Mets offer Murphy a $15.3 million qualifying offer at the end of the season. They either trade him, or he walks with no return.
I don’t think Colon pitching “his 190-200 innings” is a sure thing by any stretch. He did, however, exceed all expectations last season; at $11 million, he projects to be the worst starter in the rotation.
With injuries and surprises, I just don’t think we can make meaningful predictions about trading pitchers — Niese, for example — because so much depends on the team record, health of the club, etc. If the Mets are playing well and on course for a strong playoff run, I’d hope they’d look to put the best team on the field. This applies to Murphy too.
and another +1
Daniel Murphy has never hit .300 during a full season. Somehow there is this myth that he’s a perrennial .300 hitter; he isn’t. He’s a .280-ish hitter, with little power who doesn’t play any position in the field overly well – his mandatory 2014 AS appearance notwithstanding. My prediction, He’s the Mets 2b all year, after which they decline a qualifying offer. He simply isn’t worth it. If the Mets do offer a QO, no team will touch him with a 50 foot pole.
and yet another +1
I believe they trade Murphy at the All Star break. Sandy is not just letting him walk and getting nothing for him. That is not happening. Maybe Herrera’s is ready, maybe Reynolds for the short term. No way Sandy gets nothing Murphy.
If I recall this correctly, Sandy allowed a number of free agents to walk during the Oakland years. And there’s the obvious case of Jose Reyes, which was a travesty on multiple levels. No way he let’s Murphy walk? I don’t know about that.
And also: There’s a real scenario where it makes the most sense to keep Murphy through the end of the season. The team can’t always put its eggs in “tomorrow.” If the season is going well, and Murphy is contributing to that success, then you ride that out till the end. If you truly hate that possibility, then the only conclusion is that Murphy should have been traded last year in order to install Flores at 2B while the team picks up a true SS. Since that didn’t happen, I think the likeliest scenario is Murphy throughout the full season.
I agree, he is a total walk candidate. I see no chance he is extended a 16M$ QO. The Reyes episode is all we needed.
He still will have the possibility to be traded though, because while all the talk is about the playoffs, not a pitch has been thrown yet, and until I see 10 over .500, a thing this team has not been in so long memory fails, the chance this team will not be in contention is quite real. What if the Mets are in the 5th slot and 6 games back for WC2 at the deadline, and someone needs a second baseman? I trade him for whomever we can get.
A few factors to consider with Murphy.
1) No way he gets a qualifying offer at the end of the season. He’d probably accept it and that would keep Herrera back another year. So he either gets traded at the deadline or he walks.
2) If we are in contention at the deadline – the only way they can trade him and not appear to be throwing in the towel is if Flores is proving to be capable defensively and contributing as much on offense as Murphy does. Then they can call up Herrera or Reynolds to take over 2B, move Flores up in the order, and try to maximize their return (especially if either Dilson or Matt are raking in Vegas).
3) If we aren’t in contention – all bets are off. Not only can I see Murph being traded, but Collins released as well
Dan if the Mets have a 5 man rotation the average amount of starts for each starter is 32. The Mets only need to skip 1 start for every 8 outings for Harvey. They can shut Harvey down for 7 to 10 days during the All-Star break. With an abundance of starters in Las Vegas who could spot start for Harvey. Even if he averages 6+ innings he would be available for the playoffs (if the Mets get in). They will have a fresh Harvey who will probably be at around 165 innings or so.I don’t see the desperate for Colon to be here. If the Mets cannot move Gee and Harvey shows during spring training his shoulder is healthy again I can see Colon in a packaged deal for an upgrade at SS. Brings the payroll down below 90 million to an acceptable level for the Wilpons. So much depends on the Mets being in contention for a wild card spot. If the season spirals into a free fall Colon, Murphy and Parnell will be traded before or after the trading deadline
Regarding contention, the trade deadline comes too early to fit the modern playoff format. Almost every team can imagine themselves “in it” at the end of July. Even a team that’s under .500. It’s the collective fantasy that the owner want — by design. Very hard for a medium-type team to surrender the season at the deadline nowadays; not as many “sellers” as in years past.
I’m with you, Eric. Murph plays-through if they’re in contention- especially if Flores isn’t tearing it up. As for ending the season with him on the roster- The Mets won’t give him a QO, but they don’t exactly get “nothing” for him. They get to roll his salary into another player. I’m OK with watching it play out.