With expectations running high, the Mets are going to need everyone in the lineup to be efficient. This means that the offense needs to produce runs, get on base and hit for power. Many Mets fans are counting on David Wright to rebound, Michael Cuddyer to provide more protection for Lucas Duda, and the reuniting of Curtis Granderson and Kevin Long to work wonders. Last season, Granderson seemed to struggle at times, but managed to hit 20 homers and drive in 66 runs. Going into the season, the Mets will be figuring out who should bat leadoff, and the two main candidates seem to be Juan Lagares and Granderson, but would this enable Granderson to be the most productive he could be?
Over his career, Granderson has the most experience batting in the leadoff spot, hitting .265 and having a .339 OBP in 2,856 plate appearances. It is an intriguing option to have a powerful hitter leading off, since he can start the game off with a homerun and set the tone early. However, it may make more sense to hit Granderson towards the back end of the lineup.
The leadoff position usually has someone who gets on base, and can steal bases. Jose Reyes was the last great leadoff hitter for the Mets, as Reyes would be able to manufacture runs. Although Lagares does not walk much, he seems able to steal bases when he gets on base. So far he has been able to hit for average, which is very beneficial for a leadoff hitter. If he can continue to hit about .280 and improve on walking, it seems that there would be an increase in stolen bases, making Lagares the frontrunner for the leadoff position.
Most of the spots in the lineup seem set, as the second spot belongs to Daniel Murphy. He has succeeded in the position, and seems comfortable in the spot. Wright will most likely hold down the third spot, and Duda will provide the power in the cleanup spot. This leaves the last couple of spots in the lineup. Travis d’Arnaud and Wilmer Flores seem to hold down the last two spots in the lineup, which leaves Granderson and Cuddyer with the fifth and sixth spots in the order.
While in Colorado, Cuddyer had plenty of experience batting fourth. He had respectable numbers in this position, but it makes more sense for him to bat fifth, as it would provide the Mets with a nice balance of left-handed and right-handed hitters. Also, Cuddyer produced in the fifth spot over the past three years. He hit .290 with a .352 OBP, eight homeruns and 37 RBIs in 248 at-bats. Although it was a small sample size, it seems reasonable for Cuddyer to bat fifth in order to provide protection for Wright and Duda. Even if Cuddyer does not hit for power, his average and ability to get on base should help Granderson drive in more runs if he bats in the sixth spot.
Last season, Granderson performed fairly well in the sixth position in the lineup. Hitting .328 with an OBP of .403 through 67 at-bats was a promising start, and we may see more of this throughout the season. The leadoff spot will not provide Granderson with a chance of driving in runs, but the sixth spot provides spots to drive in runs. With the addition of Cuddyer, there should be plenty of runners on base when Granderson steps to the plate, enabling him to pass his 66 RBI total from last season.
It does not make much sense to bat Granderson in the leadoff spot. With most teams struggling to produce offense, sluggers are hard to find. The sixth spot in the lineup is a place where power hitters go. Also, it is nice to have a player who could steal some bases towards the second half of the lineup, as it is another opportunity to manufacture runs. Terry Collins and Kevin Long will have to figure out how to get Granderson going throughout the season, and put him in a position to succeed.
I personally advocate the thoughts in the following link which one of the authors on this site brought to our attention previously.
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by
Based on this your home run hitter should not lead off. OBP is king in the lead off spot that is why I advocate Murphy vs RHP and Lagares vs LHP leading off.
Based on the link, Wright should bat second, Granderson 3rd, and Duda 4th. Not going to happen in the real world. I would bat Granderson 2nd because of more opportunities for the team to score runs with his twenty home run power. Then there is the unsabermetric reason that Granderson pulls more allowing the leadoff base runner to advance from first to third. I see Murphy as more of a left field slap hitter. That is not a criticism of Murphy it is just the way he hits and I think he is a good hitter.
James I don’t necessarily agree with Granderson 6th because he will have fewer at bats from that spot and therefore less opportunities to hit home runs and drive in runs.
This may sound odd, but I think it might extend the lineup little bit:
1- Lagares
2- Granderson
3- Murphy
4- Cuddyer
5- Wright
6- Duda
7- d’Around/Flores
8- Flores/d’Arnoud
I do like your thought of splitting Murph/Lagares for based on the RHP/LHP. Might be something to play with as the season goes on.
Yet, I see that my lineup produces a LH logjam at 2 and 3. I just see the 3rd spot in the lineup being the table-setter for the power hitters in the lineup, and Murphy hits for a higher average than the others on the team, and 4-5-6 all have 25-30 HR power, and 7-8 could have 15-20 HR power. (Wright was always most productive batting 5th in his heyday of 2005-2008).
Not a bad lineup to throw out there each day. Can’t wait for the season to start.
Great point Metsense, and that’s an interesting article you have presented. I never considered Granderson to be in the second spot, simply because he seems to swing and miss a lot. If the Mets wanted to utilize a hit and run with the leadoff hitter on base, it seems this is where Murphy’s swing would come into play, however that is a great point about being able to pull the ball in the hole with the first basemen covering.
Granderson shouldn’t even be in the starting lineup. Nieuwenhuis.finally came around last year and hit much closer to what his minor league numbers projected he would. ‘Huis’ finally put all of the facets of his minor league superlatives together, albeit in a very limited role (115 PA), with an .828 OPS. If he could deliver that on a regular basis, it would certainly warrant playing him in a corner OF position. Granderson hasn’t had an OBP over .326 in the last 3 years, and only exceeded a .327 OBP 1 time in the last 6 seasons. What’s worse, his power has disappeared His SLG has gone down precipitously over the last 4 years, and his OPS has declined similarly, dropping each of the last 4 years to a truly horrid .714 last year, a career worst, at least in seasons where he appeared in >9 games. His defense is suspect, unlike ‘Huis. Granderson has gone “full Baerga” on us. His contract will likely go down as one of the worst ever inked by a Met GM.
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Granderson should bat 6th against RHP and 7th against LHP, swapping spots with dArnaud based on the opposing P. He batted .210 as a lead-off hitter last year, so enough said about that.
I hope I am wrong but by June I would not be surprised to see Granderson batting 7th full time, surpassed by dArnaud and with the value of his contract the only thing keeping him in the line-up.
I would bat Granderson 8th vs RHP; Tejada can bat 8th vs LHP. There is no reason to put Flores at 8th with no protection. If you take the bat out of his hand, then you may as well play Tejada as the better fielder. Let Flores bat 7th, protected by Granderson. Maybe Grandy can trade a few of those Ks for IBBs. That’s about all I hope for from him.
Look what I found:
http://www.fangraphs.com/community/the-grandyman-still-can/
Besides this one:
http://metsmerizedonline.com/2015/02/granderson-is-getting-a-raw-deal.html/
I think we may be premature in assuming he’s washed up.
The summary that I get from those articles is that Granderson’s bat speed is the same as it has been over the last three years, in which his production declined from each of the previous year’s production. Also that he got some walks.
He is a dreadful hitter with two strikes, but continues to “work the count”. Unless that approach changes, I don’t expect much from him.
throughout his career Granderson has consistently been one of the league leaders in Pitches Per Plate Appearance. This, coupled with a decent OBP makes him an ideal candidate for leading off. He still did well (although not as well as in the past) in this stat in 2014, finishing 19th in all of MLB). Unfortunately in 2014 his OBP was only .283 when leading off (not ideal) still it was a smaller sample size (64 games).
Not to pick on you, Tom, but this is a mangled reading of statistics.
He sees a lot of pitches because he strikes out so much — he doesn’t make contact.
Is that the quality you are seeking in a #2?
James, you hit the nail on the head. Granderson is a terrible two strike hitter, yet he listens to the moneyball mantra of “working the count,” and getting high P/AB. I fear that Long will preach the same nonsense to Granderson, when exactly the opposite is needed. Granderson should be aggressive early in the count to avoid two strikes.
As a comparison, Juan Lagares is a 25-year old with 800 AB’s in the ML, and he hit 100 points higher than Granderson last year in all counts with 2 strikes (.241 vs. .141).
don’t want to see Flores wasted in the 8 hole, but not sure how to prevent it. Maybe by putting him in the 2 hole.
perhaps:
vs LH
Lagares
Flores
Wright
Duda
Cuddy
Murphy
Darnaud
Grandy
Pitcher
vs RH
Murphy
Flores
Wright
Duda
Cuddy
d’arnaud
Grandy
Lagares
Pitcher
Murph is a career .290 hitter primarily in the 2nd spot in the line-up. He is a good hit and run guy, and is an under-rated base stealer, swiping 23 bases in 26 attempts in 2013. He is the closest thing the Mets have to a perfect 2-hitter.
Leave Flores at 7th or 8th until he hits his way up in the order.
+1
I like Grandy 2nd and Murphy 6th. All other spots as majority predicted.
Lagares
Granderson
Wright
Duda
Cuddyer
Murphy
Td’A
Flores