It’s been a rocky 48 hours. As most Mets fans discovered over the past few days, two sure-fire opening day pitchers will be having Tommy John surgery, ending their seasons’ before they began. The loss of lefty reliever Josh Edgin was a palpable hit, but not a devastating blow. The Mets were looking to have just one lefty in the pen when they traveled north. They still have Sean Gilmartin, who was a possibility for the pen anyway. He displayed strong K/BB numbers through Double-A, but struggled in Triple-A to contain his walks. It seems as though most Mets fan would be content to give him a try before returning to the Scott Rice experiment. A rotating drumbeat of lefties going up and down between the minors and the big leagues might commence for the first few weeks or months of the season. If none of them can provide value, then the Mets can realistically maintain an all right-handed bullpen.
Zack Wheeler is the hit to the gut. It knocks the wind out of you. It can not be considered unexpected, though. Nearly every young flame-throwing young pitcher undergoes the procedure these days, with extremely positive results. Some even say they feel stronger than they did before the surgery, and that may well be the case. If a ligament has been stretched over time, it becomes less and less useful. Your ability to control your arm weakens, and control issues can appear. Wheeler had the fifth-highest velocity fastball in the majors last year, and he was also fifth-worst in BB/9 among qualifying pitchers in Fangraphs.com 2014 Leaderboard. We can now attribute at least some small part of those results to the lingering elbow injury Wheeler had been dealing with for the later part of last season. And we can realistically expect him to return to form early to middle of next season. So it’s understandable that the surgery is necessary for these two men to be whole again, but it doesn’t make it any easier to take.
The reason to be optimistic is that the Mets, possibly more than any other team in Major League Baseball, are prepared to deal with it. The Mets have lost two impact pitchers in the past three days, and yet the Mets most recent Tommy John recovery was on the mound Monday, and pitched absolutely beautifully. The once dreaded surgery is now more of a formality. Wheeler is already the third young pitcher to need the procedure this Spring Training alone, and there’s three weeks to play still! While the Rangers are in panic mode about whether they can compete this year without Yu Darvish, the Mets have not one, but four arms they can rely on throughout the season to replicate Wheeler’s productivity; Dillon Gee, Rafael Montero, Noah Syndergaard, and Steven Matz.
Gee has already been announced by Terry Collins as the fifth starter, a natural solution to the problem. Fans and analysts alike who spout Alderson’s wisdom for not having traded Gee over the winter, will have to scream mighty loud to hear over the Flushing Faithful still ridiculing the non-move. But Gee is a terrific answer to the immediate concern. Should Montero, Syndergaard or Matz take a leap forward, they could inherit the rotation spot, and Gee or Bartolo Colon could still be traded away without losing a step. It wasn’t exactly genius, it was playing it safe. And it paid off very nicely.
That being said, no one is happy about Wheeler or Edgin’s loss, especially them. It is actually a breath of fresh air though, that the Mets can have such a terrible week, and yet Harvey Day was still Harvey Day, and the Mets’ odds of making the playoffs did not take such a significant drop. For a team to handle both losses without panic or having to question the future of the season, is actually, kind of, encouraging. Now it does weaken the team, and should another injury pop up somewhere, then those odds would be in serious jeopardy. Hopefully, the team has gotten all of the injuries out of their system, and they can move forward as more or less one cohesive piece.
They now have their backs against the wall earlier in the season. Sometimes that’s when people react best.
Patrick the fact that the team said Wheeler was able to make 32 starts with pain (not soreness) in his elbow for much of the season makes one wonder. Didn’t the scouts say Wheeler ‘s delivery was more susceptible to injury than Harvey’s? Why did it take 3 MRI’S in the span of over a year (2 negative? last season) to finally find what was ailing ZW? When a pitcher says his elbow hurts there’s probably a damn good reason why. Makes Colon look like a medical marvel. Unbelievable!
Inverted W is what people were weary about with Wheeler.
Colon had a medical procedure performed outside of the United States that is not approved for domestic use that is part of his revival. If I remember correctly it had to do with stem cells in his elbow, but I could be mistaken.
Losing your fourth starter is not good and having Gee still around is a nice luxury to have but Sandy’s inactivity should not be commended. Prior to the injury, Colon, because of salary and experience was going to pitch in the rotation over Gee. At this stage of their careers Gee is the better pitcher but was scheduled to be cast aside in the bullpen. Montero ended 2014 strongly and from a development and long term stand point should have been the fifth starter over both Colon and Gee. In my eyes there is approximately $16M in funds allocated to the back end of the rotation when there are better and cheaper alternatives. Wheeler being hurt only lowered that amount to $11M or $5M but in either case it is poor allocation of funds. There is still Syndergaard and Matz at AAA and either could move into the fifth rotation spot if need be. If the Mets traded Gee (or Colon) last winter to improve the position players then the Wheeler injury still would not be termed devastating.
Joe Beimel should have also been signed (non guaranteed contract) and brought in and Edgin would not be such an issue either. No I can’t commend Sandy on his off season of inactivity.
Patrick, Happy St. Patrick’s Day!
Alderson still has Montero and two prospects, unless he’s waiting for the third domino to fall: Niese.
Great article!! My sentiments exactly!
Yes, the Mets are best equipped to handle this situation.
Unfortunately, this situation sucks.
Pretty much hit the nail on the head. Having this pitching depth is benefitting the Mets big time in this circumstance, however I don’t think Wheeler’s production will be replicated by either of these four pitchers. They are quality arms, no doubt about it, but I felt Wheeler was going to have a huge year this season.
Amazingly, this is the first piece I’ve read on the topic that even mentions Montero. I for one think he’s going to be a solid major league starter as good or better than Gee.
How do we feel about the little tidbits concerning Wheeler last season (pitching through pain, almost missed a start, skipping BP sessions, etc.).
Seems as though he was maybe pushed more than needed in a lost season, honestly. I’m not sure shutting him down would have prevented this, but it sure doesn’t seem like they took the best approach with him last season.
And look where that got them!