Baseball is a game of adjustments. Players adjust to the league. The league adjusts in response to a player
s success. The constant strategy is endless. No where is this statement any truer than in the batter’s box. Expert analysts break down every pitch as if it had championship aspirations riding on them. Often, they do.
For the 2015 New York Mets, adjustments will be a major question that needs answering. Will Michael Cuddyer adjust well to the division? Will Matt Harvey adjust well after his surgery? Will David Wright adjust well to rehab stint?
All these questions loom extremely large for a semi-young team with eyes on contention. One player whose adjustment is vital to the team’s success this season, however, is Lucas Duda. Last season, Duda arrived and showed the league what he was capable of by belting 30 home runs and driving in 92 RBI to the tune of a .830 OPS.
These are all great, but they are also mainly against right-handed pitchers. Duda’s struggles versus lefties are well documented. He is batting .186 in his career against them and an even lower .180 last season. With the addition of hitting coach Kevin Long, the Mets manager, Terry Collins, is hoping to change that trend.
According to Metsblog, he is putting it to the test by proclaiming that Duda will start more consistently against lefties early in the season. Thus far, that vote of confidence has had little impact as Duda has just a .148 AVG in 27 overall at bats this spring.
The hope is that as the season progresses, he will find his stroke and duplicate his 2014 offense but with a better performance against lefties. His success in this is pivotal. His presence in the lineup is one to be feared.
Without it his presence, the manager strategy becomes simple. Opposing pitchers can pitch around hitters like David Wright or Curtis Granderson to get to the Wimer Flores’ of the lineup. It makes the offense that much more vulnerable. As the offense goes this season, so the team will go.
The rotation and the bullpen will most likely do their thing and rely on the offense to support it with plenty of runs. There is one problem, though. What good will a Matt Harvey or Jacob deGrom one-run gem be if the offense posts a goose egg?
Therefore, the offense must have their major power source running on all cylinders. That power source is Lucas Duda. Of all the batters in their lineup, he is the one most feared to embarrass an opposing pitcher on a mistake pitch.
At this time, however, lefties aren’t fearing him and when a lefty starts, opposing managers aren’t thinking about him either. True contenders have balanced hitters in the middle of their orders. This Mets team can’t be an exception to that if they want to revel in October glory.
And Lucas Duda will have to adjust his game further for them to have a legitimate chance at that.
I think the way the team is constructed — with Wilmer as SS — they don’t necessarily need brilliant offenses performances from any one player. It’s more a matter of avoiding disastrous seasons (Curtis, that means you).
Duda has been a consistent hitter throughout his career. I’m pretty confident he will be solid, though he may not make the cut against LHP. I am glad that they are willing to give him the opportunity, since I think that’s the ideal scenario: a full-time 1B.
Off-topic: Ruben reports that Mike Dunn of the Marlins is available. I didn’t research why, or how. But as LH relievers go, I’ve always really liked him and preferred him over Edgin.
Dude – why do you think Wilmer Flores is here? Its not for his glove. This guy is one of the best hitting prospects the Mets have ever produced. He hits for average and he’s growing into his power. He’s 23 after all. Flores may only have hit .251 last year but Darryl Strawberry only hit .257 as a rookie. Flores is now and will be one of the best hitters on the Mets this year. Duda is important to the Mets lineup but I disagree that he is a linchpin. If hitting lefthanders doesn’t work out, put Cuddyer at first and Mayberry in the OF. Nimmo and Conforto are working their way up.
I see many reasons to consider many players as “important” and arguments can be made for Wright as well. However, the most important aspect of this team won’t be a single hitter, because any one of those guys could be off but if the other guys are doing well, no one will complain too loudly. The Mets seem to have a nice balanced lineup to that respect.
The biggest factor will be the defense. And after seeing Campbell at first, Flores, Wright and Murphy absolutely need Duda at first to pick the throws out of the dirt. This team doesn’t need bats now. Now, they need gloves.
Bingo
I repeat my comment from another thread: haven’t advanced statistics shown that defense is overrated?
Off-topic, part 2: What annoys me about this Mets organization — I team I really like, btw, in terms of rooting for the actual players — is this idea that they can outthink everybody else in baseball.
In the past 24 hours, I’ve read: 1) they are considering batting the pitcher 8th, to give Wright more RBI opportunities; 2) they are considering batting Wright 2nd, because some studies show that’s where you should bat your team’s most productive hitter; 3) that they are at the “forefront” of defensive positioning, as if they’ve invented the concept; 4) they are going to “see what it looks like” to have Juan Lagares bat 9th; and 5) just generally that their hitting coach is going to fix everything that’s broken.
And so it goes.
Here’s an idea: Get the best players and get out of the way. The Lagares thing is particularly galling, because supposedly they “challenged” Lagares to show that he can bat leadoff, and he’s put together some of the best numbers in Spring Training of anyone on the planet. So now, after he’s done all that, the response is, “Maybe he should bat 9th?”
Conclusion: Spring Training is too darn long. And: I think this team has a shot.
Jim I get frustrated at the lacked of innovation from the manager’s office these past four years and actually like the first three innovations and #4 is feasible vs RHP except that Lagares looks like he may have earned the lead off spot full time based on the spring he is having. Wright batting second is the perfect spot for him but the team would need to get better hitters for the three and five spot. I believe that these innovations are originating from the front office and not the manager’s office.
I am a big Lucas Duda backer but even with rose colored glasses I don’t consider him “the key to success in 2015”. In fact I think it is a poor idea to start him against LHP. Duda vs LHP in his career has 470 PA,212/292/317/610 with 9 HR and 1 HR every 52.2 PA. Maberry vs LHP has a career line of 534 PA , 269/324/533/857 30 HR and 1 HR per 17.8 PA. There are enough PA’s to conclude that Mayberry is the more feared hitter vs LHP and his ST has not diminished his reputation. Platooning Mayberry improves the defense as it gets Cuddyer out of leftfield. Finally having Duda on the bench late in a game allows a keen manager to pick the spot to use him as a pinch hitter. Then again it is the manager that wants to play him everyday so I have little faith that the right pinch hitting spot will be keenly picked.
Even with platoon splits against tough lefties it would be nice to see Duda figure it out this season. He has to if he wants to be our long term first baseman.
I’m glad they’re letting Duda hit lefties in spring. I think if they want to give him an off-day, it’d be nice to do it against a lefty, and put Cuddyer there and Mayberry in the outfield, but until Duda really struggles, I would give him a chance against lefties.