David Wright’s career has one of the most fascinating arcs in recent baseball history. From 2004-2008, he produced at budding superstar levels; in 2009 and 2010, he was good but not great; 2011 was a lost season owing to a back injury. It appeared that after a few promising years, Wright could no longer be counted on as the cornerstone player for the Mets.
Then came 2012 and 2013, where Wright had two of the best years of his career, only to regress in 2014 with the worst year of his career. Wright battled a shoulder injury which he denies effected him at the plate, but it was plain to see that he wasn’t at full health.
He remains a big question mark heading into the 2015 season – just what can the Mets expect to get from Wright this year? Now 32 years old, his best years are probably behind him, so it’s hard to see him putting up another MVP season, but it’s not yet time to stick a fork in Wright’s career yet.
The major projection systems all see Wright’s 2015 season about the same: a .275/.345/.425 line with about 3.5 fWAR. In our projection piece from February, we were far more optimistic: a .287/.380/.490 line, which would likely come in somewhere around 5+ fWAR, depending on games played and defense.
Personally, I was even more optimistic, seeing Wright slug .308/.384/.520 with 23 home runs, despite missing some time on the disabled list. Those numbers are in line with his 2012 and 2013 production.
Working with new hitting coach Kevin Long this spring, Wright’s power stroke has experienced a resurgence, clubbing four home runs and sporting a gaudy .615 slugging percentage. Even more notably, Wright has been driving the ball with authority to the opposite field and up the middle. That has always been an indication that his swing is right.
Whether this is the indication of being fully healthy, changes that Long has implemented, something else or a combination of everything, this is a good sign of things to come for the regular season.
Having Wright producing at his all-star levels would fundamentally change the playoff outlook for the Mets, taking them from right on the cusp of contention to firmly in the driver’s seat.
Problem Joe is Wright could have an MVP season and if all the other question marks like Cuddyer and Granderson don’t fall into place then we’ll have to wait one more year for our breakout season. Wright would be the Andre Beltre of the NL.
Joe, I beg to differ with your assessment. Wright is not a question mark. One bad season shouldn’t be cause for concern. The concern lies with the perception that “Wright is unreliable” is caused by his lack of health that got masked by one terrible year, by his standards.
Wright has played 150 games one time in the last four years and two times in the last six. Allowing for the 144 games in 2013 to be suffice that’s still three out of six. The Mets need a healthy David Wright and expectantly, with his good health there is no doubt will be good production. After all, your article even points out that the two previous years his production was in line with his standard. Hence, the guy was hurt and tried to fight through it unsuccessfully.
Wright is definitely a key, but I think it’s entirely reliant upon his health, which we can’t predict. If healthy, he will produce. We are talking about a very, very good player.
Another key to this season: Wilmer Flores. If that guy can somehow stick at SS, be okay defensively, and hit in the .270 range with pop, wow, that gives the Mets a solid lineup, 1-8, the likes of which we haven’t seen. We replace a black hole with a bat. That’s huge, and a difference that should be felt up and down the lineup. This is why I supported the experiment from the beginning, though I had serious doubts regarding its success. If Flores sticks, that’s a huge difference maker, IMO.
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Wright is looking pretty good this season, saw he made a nice diving play in foul territory against the Cardinals, and he’s been driving the ball to the opposite field nicely. When Wright came up, all the announcers talked about was his two strike approach and how he used the whole field, hopefully he continues to go opposite field in order to regain his old stroke.
If Wright puts up the numbers you suggest, Joe, the Mets are making the playoffs.
No they’re not Patrick. Can’t wait to see Collins blow up the pen and blame Sandy for not providing him with the players he needs to turn this team around.