It has been talked to death about how Lucas Duda struggled heavily against left handed pitchers. His lefty struggles were part of the reason that both Michael Cuddyer and John Mayberry Jr. were brought in this past offseason. Both are good right hand hitting outfielders who also play first base. Mayberry mashes against lefties with an OPS of .913 against them last season. Cuddyer was brought in to provide offense in left field after last year’s dismal numbers and give Duda a day off against a tough lefty. He knew this going into this season and worked on improving against lefties. Near the end of spring training Duda was not scheduled to take the trip to face the Tigers, but asked Terry Collins to let him in the lineup because former Cy Young lefty, David Price, was going to be on the mound that day.
It is a small sample size so far, but Duda has hit well off of lefties so far this season. In seven at-bats against lefties so far this season he has three hits. He sat against Eric Stults on Friday in Atlanta, but started against Alex Wood on Sunday. Alex Wood has been a pretty good pitcher averaging about a strikeout per inning over the last two seasons and sports a career 2.89 ERA as well. He is not a dominating lefty pitcher like Price or Clayton Kershaw, but he is still a solid pitcher. Andrew McKirahan, the Braves lefty who Duda got a hit off of, has not been particularly tough against lefties in the minors.
It is still way too early to tell if Duda should be the starting first basemen every day aside from the occasional off day. Many wanted Collins to platoon him with Cuddyer and Mayberry to avoid him against lefties completely, but that does not help Duda as a player. Prior to Opening Day, the Mets were in contract discussions with Duda and his agent through 2019. If he is going to be an integral part of this team for the next four seasons, he cannot be a platoon player. He needs to learn how to hit lefties at an acceptable rate. He does not need to be Miguel Cabrera against lefties, but he needs to be able to at least work the counts and fight off tough pitches.
Over the next few weeks the Mets will not be facing a lot of left handed starting pitchers. The Mets will miss Cole Hamels in this series with the Phillies. They then move onto the Marlins who do not have a lefty in their rotation. Then the Braves make their way to Citi Field and it looks as if the Mets will face Stults again, who Duda sat against in Atlanta. Next up is the Yankees in the Bronx where they may face CC Sabathia and then to Miami where they do not have a lefty in their rotation. Mayberry will probably get a start or two against a righty pitcher in place of Cuddyer or Granderson during that stretch, but will also probably face Stults again with Duda sitting.
To get Duda reps over the next few weeks there is Jake Diekman for Philadelphia and Brand Hand and Mike Dunn for Miami. The Braves have Luis Avilan and McKirahan out of the bullpen for them. If Duda bats in the late in the game, there is a good chance that he will see them as he is one of the best hitters right now for the Mets and the most threatening lefty bat in the lineup. Until Duda faces some lefties consistently, there is no telling how well Kevin Long’s teachings have helped Duda against the southpaws.
There are two kinds of lefty problems. What Lucas had last year was an inability to do anything with lefties so he ended up with a miniscule batting average against them.
This year with more of an opposite field approach it looks like he’ll be bringing that BA up. But so far at least he is showing no power against them. If he hits .270 versus lefties but without the doubles and HRs has he really solved the problem?
Last year with no real alternatives we would have been happy with a soft .270 but we know that Mayberry can hit lefties and do so with power. When Big John plays LF he slightly upgrades the position over Cuddyer.
So it’s good to see Lucas getting his hits but I hope this wouldn’t scuttle the plan to have Mayberry in LF vs lefties with Cuddyer getting most of the starts vs lefties at 1B.
“If he hits .270 versus lefties but without the doubles and HRs has he really solved the problem?”
The answer is yes because he is no longer what seems an automatic out vs lefties!
Completely agree with your points Tyler. If Duda is going to be a contributor going forward, it is crucial for him to gain experience against left-handed pitchers. However, if the team is competing and Duda is struggling to hit lefties, I think it makes sense for the team to start Mayberry Jr., as it would provide the team with the best chance to win.
I hope his problems are over but. I would still sit him against Kershaw, Hammels, and other first line lefties, until he proves he can hit the lesser lefties. So far Mayberry has been a pleasant surprise, I wouldn’t mind him playing against the tough lefties.
Mayberry has been pretty good so far, but at this point if Hamels or Kershaw is on the mound, I would rather Granderson be the one sitting instead of Duda. Granderson may be able to get on base, but against lefties he is still struggling. Duda more likely a longer term piece than Granderson and if one of them is going to get reps against lefties, I prefer it be Duda.
Granderson is an average hitter vs LHP with a career avg .707 OPS with distinct splits. In 2014 Granderson had a very decent split vs LHP with a .742 OPS. That would indicate to me that Granderson is more deserving to play and not sit.
At the end of the day, considering the reinforcements brought in, all he has to do is get on base in the late-innings when a right-handed starter is brought out and a LOOGY is brought in.
If he can do that, he has fixed the problem in my eyes.
I agree Julian. That is right at the core of the issue.
I noticed that both Duda and Granderson seem to be going the opposite way more. I credit Long for that. Now if Long gets three people to do it they might think it’s an organization. But if he gets fifty people, imagine fifty people hitting to the opposite field, people would think it was a movement.
That was horrible
Let him build some confidence against the Diekmans before he faces the Kershaws.
He better. Thirteen pitchers doesn’t leave much room for situational substitution on the offensive side.
As you’ve pointed out before, Mike, it is strange that the equation is so off-balance. Every team seems to want to utilize match-up advantages on the defensive side, yet are perfectly willing to forfeit that advantage offensively. It’s bizarre. On the one hand, they recognize the value of a positive matchup. But on the other, they forfeit it completely.
It’s already hurt the Mets in several games. Burning Mayberry early & unnecessarily in one game, putting up Kirkkk only to have him face a LHP; having absolutely no chance of a defensive replacement, etc.
But on the plus side, we’ve gotten 1.1 IP out of Goeddel!
I think the real competitive edge will come to the team that goes with a 6-man pen and adds weapons to the bench.
I agree completely with your last line.
And I’ll take it even one step further. While it’s not the right solution for our team with the way our prospects line up — sometime in my lifetime I expect at least some teams to go back to a four-man rotation for the majority of a season. My belief is the danger is not pitching every fourth day, it’s throwing 125+ pitches every fourth day.
I agree on the 4-man staff, but it would require such a massive rethink that I don’t know when we’ll see it. I think Nolan Ryan dreamed about it a while back with the Rangers.
That’s when you’d need to bring back the old “spot starter.”
Somewhere Earl Weaver smiles, dreaming of a full bench. Also, that would eliminate the need for the shitty-but-versatile Joe McEwing type.
I don’t think we will ever see the MLB go back to four man rotations for a long period of time. Especially with everyone concerned about pitcher’s throwing too much and not getting as much rest. There was the brief experiment with the Rockies going four man rotation with the three man sub rotation. That blew up, but there pitchers were not star caliber pitchers either.
The National League is probably more likely to get the DH, then to see teams go for a four man rotation for a long term.
The thing is – the Colorado experiment worked. Their SP, even undergoing this mid-season, were no worse than they were previously, and they didn’t get hurt. Imagine if it was a team that didn’t play a mile in the air and had a full offseason to prepare for it.
Let’s say the Phillies decide to go ahead with this. I haven’t looked to see who they have prospect-wise ready to contribute as a starter in 2016. But their team wouldn’t be better skipping starts by David Buchanan and giving more to Cole Hamels?
I know full well that it’s easy to speculate about a massive change like this and another thing entirely to put it in motion. Colorado was able to do it because their pitching staffs have mostly stunk for 20+ years. It will take a team that’s at the bottom of the success cycle to try it, which is why Philly makes sense.
The Mets had 8 starters so starting 4 every four days with a pitch limit of 90 and the other 4 on the same rotation finishing up each start would work. That would leave 2 or 3 very good short relievers and 14 or 15 position players. It never will happen but the Met system is built for it.
So you’re talking four starters, eight position starters, six man bench, and a 7 man bullpen? I think to make that feasible you would have to have one lousy fifth starter, and probably a finely-tuned off-season workout regiment for the four starters. I’d rather go with a four-man bench and keep them all swinging on a regular basis.