The New York Mets have typically based their winning teams off of the sole component of starting pitching. From the glory days of 1969 and 1973, to the dominant years of the mid 1980’s, heck, even the 1999-2000 and 2006 Mets had top-five team ERA’s. This tradition has carried over into 2015 with a 16-10 record through 26 games resulting in a 3.5 game lead on the Nationals- even with the recent skid. They haven’t been scoring runs, they haven’t been playing great defense, and they have suffered countless injuries/suspensions. However, one thing that this organization always seems to get right is the pitching- specifically the starters. All five starters have pushed through five starts and none of them have an ERA over 3.86. They walked a total of 30 batters yet somehow Jon Niese has a lower ERA than Matt Harvey. But with this comes a couple of big questions, albeit mostly good ones.
The foremost question, and by far hardest to think about, is how long will this last and who will be the first to regress. Well, to answer the former, it seems that this type of starting pitching is not completely unsustainable. There might be a few starts by each pitcher that will inflate the numbers, but it seems that this type of excellent production could actually last the entire season. Anything could happen, and there is absolutely no guarantee that any of the pitchers will keep up their dominance, but considering their history, how well they are attacking hitters, and the way that the team has come together as a team, they show few signs of slowing down.
When it comes to which pitcher has the highest possibility of regressing, each holds their candidacy. Bartolo Colon has weaseled his way out of trouble while allowing only a walk; eventually that number will go up and his ERA will probably follow (he is also on the wrong side of 40). Jacob deGrom and Niese both have FIP stats that heavily exceed their respectable ERA’s, so there is a strong possibility either of the two could get worse. Dillon Gee is a walking, talking model of consistency, but he occasionally lets the score get away from him. Which leads us to the Dark Night of Gotham – Harvey. He has been an absolute horse thus far; with 34 strikeouts compared to four walks he has dominated the opposition. That being said, Harvey is coming off the dreaded Tommy John Surgery making him the most likely to see some troubles down the road. Not that he will turn into an AAAA pitcher, but we might see his numbers dip a bit.
The most intriguing question that this performance brings is, “Can this rotation lead a sub-par offense to the playoffs?” – a question clearly being asked way too early but it should be one to float around. This team has lost two consecutive games 1-0; if that doesn’t make a person wonder, nothing will. Many teams dream of delivering back-to-back one-run games, but only the Mets would find a way to blow both of them. The Mets rotation should be able to handle any opposing high-powered offense, considering their talent, but can it carry the team? The years 2012-2014 could answer that question alone. Asking a pitching staff to simply carry an inadequate offense is always a recipe for disaster- especially considering the defense the Mets own. This team has a dominant rotation – possibly the only one that can rival the Nationals – and the team shouldn’t waste it by applying too much pressure them. It just goes to show that with all the talent on the roster a rotation of this caliber can actually cause questions about the team as a whole.
Now, by far, the most important question that arises from the production is who will be replaced by top prospects Steven Matz and Noah Syndergaard. It would be a waste of time to fill anyone in on the production of the two hard-throwing minor leaguers, but get this: both have an ERA that is currently hovering under 2.00. Let’s just take out deGrom and Harvey because they will never be replaced (unless for a spot start). It has become a well-known fact that Matz will likely replace Niese when he is called up, but why would the Mets want to replace the guy who currently has the lowest ERA on the staff? The question of who to ship out will be an easy one to answer at the conclusion of the season due to the inevitable departure of Colon and possibly Gee. For now, however, it appears that both pitchers are cementing their spot in the rotation for the short term. Gee seems especially likely considering the trade rumors swirling around the guy for months.
In the end, it seems most likely that Gee will be moved in order for either Matz or Syndergaard to become a staple here in New York. The Mets starting rotation was consistently ranked in the top-five in baseball by almost every major sports news outlet and they are living up to that billing, yet Mets fans always fear the worst and we question what this means in the long term. This rotation will regress eventually, but hopefully the offense can pick up their slack like they did on the 11-game winning streak. But the bottom line still remains: Matz and Syndergaard aren’t getting any younger and leaving them to rot in AAA would be wasting the development of what could be future Cy Young candidates.
I’ve spent a lot of idle time pondering this. Rather than deciding who to trade, Sandy needs to decide who is off the table and then open discussions with other GMs. We also need to see what our needs are, who’s available and who’s healthy at the AS break. Someone else is bound to get injured.
There is no doubt in my mind that both will get full shots in Spring Training next year.
Ideally, you don’t begin a season with two rookies in the rotation. So you’d like to see one of these guys work his way into the rotation this season. Given injuries, it’s pretty likely that it will happen naturally. Or if one of the current starters regresses, that would present a different opportunity. If all 5 continue to pitch well, hey, that’s good news; I refuse to consider it a problem.
It’s early May. I don’t see this as a big concern. I think the solution will present itself rather than be forced.
We will see Matz and Syndergaard in next year’s rotation. As of now, we are seeing all the starters pitch pretty well throughout the past couple of weeks. Harvey had that one start against Miami where he allowed 4 runs as he wasn’t feeling too good.
I think this rotation is going to keep the team competitive throughout the season, and let’s hope that the staff keeps up the production!