The New York Mets have a major weakness. It’s not much of a secret. Their defense up the middle leaves something to be desired. Despite the mediocre defense, particularly at shortstop, the team has continued to win on the strength of timely hitting that supports strong pitching.
While this is a formula that has shown success, it is a formula that will need to be reassessed as the team goes further into the season. Mets management seems to have begun that reassessment early.
According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, the Mets, earlier in the week, reached out to the agent of the recently disgruntled Colorado Rockies shortstop, Troy Tulowitzki (.298 AVG/2 HR/11 RBI).
They are one of several teams to do so after the Rockies have reached a lengthy losing streak. The other teams are the Pirates, Padres, Mariners and possibly the Yankees. While it may seem like a wise decision on the part of the Mets to trade for Tulowitzki, it’s not.
There is certainly a need to upgrade from Wilmer Flores. Just last week, this Mets360 writer made the argument as to why Flores should at the very least be benched in favor of a Matt Reynolds call up.
With that said, Flores is potentially a better option than Tulowitzki for three main reasons: the Coors Field effect, his age and injury history and trade value.
First, it has to be said that Tulowitzki is an outstanding shortstop in many regards. He is perhaps one of the top players at his position in the league. The problem is that he plays in the altitude of Denver’s Coors Field. The air up there has an impact on padding stats and has done so since the Rockies inception into the league.
In Tulowitzki’s career, he’s been far more successful at home than he has been on the road. Whether it’s the unfriendly confines of the opposition or the atmospheric change, he has mild to significant drops in several key categories when on the road during his career.
For example, a 22% drop in home runs (100 at home/78 on the road), 90 fewer hits (595 at home/504 on the road), 91 less RBI (353 at home/262 on the road), a 47 point drop in AVG (.322 at home/.275 on the road), a 94 point drop in SLG % (.563 at home/.469 on the road) and a 142 point drop in OPS (.959 at home/ .817 on the road).
These stats don’t translate well from a wide open, thin aired Coors Field to a compact Citi Field, despite the fences being moved in.
Next is his age. His age comes into question for two important reasons. It is an issue of how injury prone he is and how much longer he can perform at the high level we are all used to before his game begins to diminish.
Injuries are a major factor because he has already missed multiple games in the past few seasons for various injuries, including a major surgery that shut him down last season.
As important as the potential of injury with him is, the potential for a diminishing in his game is even more plausible. He has possibly even begun to show this already as his usually stacked numbers are surprisingly down. He has just two home runs and only 11 RBI so far.
He is either beginning his decline, having a rare off year or he is playing through an injury. In any event, it certainly doesn’t make an attractive case for trading the farm to acquire him.
That brings us to the final point. The cost will be far too high to be worth the trade. The Rockies will want MLB ready talent. That would mean minors players such as Steve Matz, Rafael Montero or Noah Syndegaard. If they do make the offer to include one of these, it will leave the farm system a bit thinner.
If the plague of injuries to the roster has proven anything so far this season, it’s that the farm system needs to be packed with talent that’s ready to go. They can’t afford to give up their premiere talent.
In addition, if they pull the trigger on a deal and he gets injured again, the Mets are worse off then they were because they would have to go with Flores again and have given up major talent for that second starting nod.
Besides the cost of talent, it will cost the team money. The Mets would own a contract that would pay out roughly $110 M throughout 2021. For a team that likes to stay under the $100 M mark in team salary, that would push them over considerably.
In closing, Troy Tulowitzki is a great player when he’s on, but which Tulowitzki would the Mets acquire and would it be worth it? Because of his age, price tag and other key reasons, the answer is almost certainly a definitive no.
The team has a young player that is less than serviceable in the field in Flores, a young player that is less than serviceable at the plate in Ruben Tejada and a potentially budding starter in AAA in Matt Reynolds. If Tulowitzki is the only option at this stage and at that cost, the Mets are better off with what they already have.
I think the Mets would take a .469 slugging right now at SS. It would of been nice if you could of provided Tulo’s stats for Citifield. Even though as you say the fences have been brought in. I am curious as to how you decided “that these stats don’t translate well in Citifield”? Put Tulo in the 3 hole. Have Wright bat second. That way pitchers cannot pitch around Wright. In some form of a package deal you need to put Murphy in there and have Herrera play second base. Now your up the middle defense isn’t a liability any more.
Frank, thank you. I felt like I was nuts always saying “no” to Tulowitzski, as I never heard anyone agreeing with me. Last December, I noted Tulo’s away stats and Josh Donaldson’s away stats for the passed two years. They were extremely similar, but their home numbers were a huge difference. And based on cost of talent to acquire and injury factor, I would rather take Donaldson.
Well, having Wright makes it moot but it shows that Tulo is good but the chance taken would be too risky.
Once again, thank you Frank and I agreed with every word.
I dont think Tulo is the answer either, but only for the reason that the cost would be too burdensome in both blood and treasure. On the other hand, this is no excuse to call Flores a better option. Entirely from a baseball perspective, 90 games of Tulo is better than 150 games of Flores at short.
The length of the season is exposing the bare underbelly of what could be seen some time back, even though the feel-good start was beginning to change minds. The pitching has been great. The relief pitching has been as well, although the lack of depth is now clear.
(1) The pen is on life support, and waiting for Black and/or Parnell is a fantasy. Blacks injury is not going to be easily fixed and will almost certainly be chronic as many people with disc injuries can attest to. Parnell was a closer of modest quality for a short time. We have seen little evidence that the post-TJ world of his will look anything like the dream many seem to believe in.
(2) The middle infield cannot pick up or throw a baseball at a continuously high level, which is a cause for major concern with a team centered on pitching. The mental errors, the glove errors, the footwork errors, and the throwing errors are taking a toll and losing us games. For a team that has offensive “limitations” shall we say, being flawless in the field is essential. Sadly, any combination that has Flores and/or Murphy involved is headed for doom.
(3) For the n-th year in a row, this team apparently has no capacity to hit a baseball. The offense is pathetic. Listening to MLB radio this morning, Todd Hollandsworth called it “momentary offense”…a situation where in one inning the stars align for the Mets for a moment, and the team must capitalize on it because otherwise nothing else will materialize in the game. No opposing teams fear sustained offensive pressure inning after inning.
(4) Fundamental baseball play has been average at best. Mental and physical errors are mounting at an alarming rate. Base running has been bad. The team cannot bunt a baseball. Execution is not inspiring.
(5) Alderson made few changes on the belief that the team personnel were big league ready. It clearly is not. We played bad teams well, which is a must, but we play good teams poorly. That is not a recipe for a record much over .500, if that.
The “lack of depth is now clear” for the relief pitchers? There are 6 relievers out for whatever reason. The depth is already in the majors!!!!! How many teams would be able to handle 6 relievers on the DL at the same time?
To be sure. But those that could come in are really not an answer. The depth is up, but its not good enough. The pen issues will get more and more magnified. Wait out Harvey, deGrom, Colon etc…and we will feed on the pen. Just like last night.
Camp Tulo here.
But it’s not Tulo or nothing. Castro/Russell from the Cubs or Owings from the D’Backs or Miller from the Mariners would be acceptable, too.
I didn’t want Didi and I don’t want Desmond and I don’t want Baez, either.
As much as there is to love about Tulo, I just dont know how you make that deal and feel good giving up Matz/Syndergaard/Wheeler and Montero, and maybe more, as well as bearing 70-80M$ of his contract.
Well, it’s not going to take all four of those guys.
The bottom line is they can’t fit Harvey, JDG, Niese, Gee, Wheeler, Matz, Syndergaard and Montero all in the rotation. And I believe in the arms coming up behind them, too. There may not be another Harvey but I like the odds of someone from the group of Gsellman, Meisner, Molina, Whalen, Ynoa, etc. becoming a solid MLB starter.
It may be that a good deal isn’t to be had for Tulo. But among all the guys I mentioned earlier – there’s a good deal to be had somewhere.
Hi Brian, I meant one of the first 3 and Montero. I also suspect they will want one of the younger folks too. So I would envision that Bridich would go for 3 pitchers and offer to cover 20-30M$. If the deal started to carry someone else with Tulo, like Blackmon or LeMahieu then I would go with adding Murphy, who might produce well in Denver. Id rather think big, and move a number of folks.
I agree with everything Frank points out, but I have this nagging feeling – could Tulo be this team’s Gary Carter? Nobody would care if we’re paying a broken down player 20 million in a few years if said player helped put us over the top. Maybe the solution is to not focus on the holes, but rather focus on transformative bats that you can build a lineup around. There are probably only a handful these days (Cabrera, Trout, Stanton at the top and then Cano, Bautista, Tulo, Prince, A-Gon, Posey, Goldy, Votto, McCutchen, maybe a few others). Those guys all have massive salaries and most are not available. If not Tulo, Bautista or is he too old?
While it would be nice to get a Carter, I can’t shake the feeling that this team would be better served by getting a Hernandez first…
As of today, I would trade Noah in a deal for Tulo. As long as our core 3 (Harvey, Wheeler and DeGrom) remains and are healthy for the future it would still be a great rotation with the supplementation of veterans like Niese and Colon, or etc. Tulo’s contract is huge but for value they get at SS its essentially a bargain. I don’t care if he doesn’t put up the numbers like he did at Coors. His fielding and bat are day and night better than any SS we ever had. Yes, Flores is hitting a bit with 5 Hrs, but he can’t play SS its obvious. I don’t see Noah, Flores and Plawecki for Tulo as a rip off. The Rockies would probably want more and if i was Alderson I would throw in Gee or Montero. We’ve been talking about our farm system’s talent and potential but theres a point where you need actual proven talent now. We have proven we can somewhat compete with a young talented and experienced mixed staff. The bottom line is you can’t have 8 starting pitchers and I know injuries happen. They didn’t try hard enough to trade Gee in the offseason and now he’s hurt so we lost the value of possibly getting a bat.
At this point as mets fan, I would make it blockbuster and go for Tulo and Cargo for Noah, Montero, Flores, Plawecki, Murphy. We’d still have Herrerera at 2nd and Matz in the system.
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Make it DJ LeMahieu instead of Cargo and replace Wheeler for Syndergaard, and Im on board. I agree, its blockbuster time.
+1 Chris! Before the Met’s wake up and find themselves in third place!
I never heard the term “transformative bat” before but I love it already. You’d have to say that he could/would be a “transformative glove” too.
Tulo is the player that is a difference maker even with an .817 OPS. He solves the defensive problem at SS and he is an impact middle of the order batter. It is going to cost plenty but the pieces are available. I am also in favor of turning the trade into a much larger package.
The Cubs could provide a SS but no matter how you look at it, Syndergaard, Matz or deGrom are going so if that kind of pitcher is traded then I want the greatest impact bat. Tulo provides that.
Bautista is not too old Matt. He’s a consummate professional hitter that makes everyone around him better. When Encarnacion was out last year he carried the team and adjusted his at-bats to be a run producer. He’s a 30/90 consistently and gets on base consistently, I’m sorry but Toronto is not going to move Bautista