Through the first quarter of the season, there have been surprises and disappointments across the league. From the .406 hitter in Gordon and the one walk from Colon to the .143 batting average from Chase Utley and 5.76 ERA from R.A. Dickey, this season has proved to be interesting thus far. However the biggest surprise of the season, much to the delight of Mets fans, has been the team at the head of the NL East. With the 23-16 record, there have been numerous ups and downs that have propelled them to both an eleven game winning streak and a five game losing streak. So let’s give a grade to everyone on the team. (Kirk Nieuwenhuis has been excluded due to his demotion)
Lucas Duda: .293/.383/.457
So far, Duda has proved all the doubters wrong in every aspect of his game over the last year. His defense has greatly improved this season, with the ability to dive to the left and right in order to start double plays. His hitting has improved against lefties; after hitting .180 last year he is hitting .390 this season. Overall, he has proved to be the best player on the team and clearly the best hitter. The only problem has been his lack of power which will eventually come around.
Grade: A-
Curtis Granderson: .252/.358/.415
After starting out the season with one hit through 18 at-bats, he has produced a .282/.356/.470 slash line and has been one of the more consistent hitters on the team. His actual fielding is never really an issue, but his arm has caused a bit of a problem including Monday night when any other outfielder would have gotten the out at home. Overall, he has been a consistent hitter and is living up to his contract this season.
Grade: B
Daniel Murphy: .245/.303/.360
He is yet another hitter who started out this season with a poor performance, but has turned it around with a red-hot last 20 games. Since the rubber game of the Yankees, Murphy has posted a .325 average to go along with seven doubles and an even amount of strikeouts and walks at five. In fact, he has posted a very low amount of both strikeouts and walks with eleven and ten respectively. Overall, he looks to be a great trade-chip when mid-season rolls around.
Grade: C+
Juan Lagares: .269/.295/.355
There is not much to mention when it comes to defense as his sparkling plays have lit up New York once again. However, his offense has been a bit shaky over the past few weeks. As recently as May 5th, Lagares was performing at an excellent rate with a .324 average and racking up a ton of timely hits. Since then he has posted an ugly .140 average and a .368 OPS. He has been streaky hitter thus far, but we should not give up him just yet.
Grade: B-
Michael Cuddyer: .239/.295/.355
Cuddyer has easily been the most disappointing player on the roster, his offense, defense, and salary have all made Mets fans sick. He has not lived up to expectations as a run-producer since the eleven game winning streak and is not showing any signs of breaking out. Hopefully, for the Mets sake, he can start to deliver soon.
Grade: D-
Wilmer Flores: .248/.290/.436
This man is easily the most scrutinized player on the Mets since Jason Bay, but has actually been pretty solid. It is very clear that he has a problem committing errors with nine, but Baseball-Reference.com actually rates him above average defensively. After an extremely slow start to the season, he has actually produced very well since his big three-run homer versus the Marlins to the tune of a .272/.302/.500 slash line. Overall, Flores would not receive as much criticism if he simply played at second base where he is average defensively.
Grade: B-
Eric Campbell: .238/.351/.365
Easily the biggest snub of the 25-man roster, Campbell has produced fairly well so far this season. The only problem has been the lack of hitting after his immediate call-up production. He hit .286 in his first 21 at-bats in his first call-up, but only .138 thereafter. In addition, he has five hits in 13 at-bats in his second call-up, but the question is how long it will last.
Grade: C+
Kevin Plawecki: .224/.264/.358
Since Travis d’Arnaud went down the Mets have relied on the duties of Plawecki behind the dish. The results have been subpar. Obviously it is ridiculous to completely tear him into shreds especially taking into account how long it took for d’Arnaud to figure the major leagues out. That being said, the production that d’Arnaud put up compared to Plawecki has been a bit of a disappointment offensively. Hopefully they can get some kind of production out of him before d’Arnaud comes back.
Grade: D
Ruben Tejada: .195/.298/.268
Considering his new role, it really remains hard to complain about his offensive production. Nevertheless, he has really failed to rack up any kind of hits that could make a difference. This leaves many fans wondering why Wilfredo Tovar isn’t given a shot. All the doubts about him end when his superb defense makes up for the lack of production.
Grade: C-
John Mayberry: .139/.205/.278
Mayberry is only on the team for one reason – to hit lefties – and he hasn’t done that yet. He has played defense to the best of his ability which is limited to begin with, so there’s nothing to legitimately complain about. He had a walk-off hit on Monday night which, for the time being, limits the criticism. Hopefully he can turn his season around with that hit and propel this team to some clutch hitting.
Grade: D-
Anthony Recker: .238/.407/.524
At this point, every Mets fan knows who this 31-year old is. He has a knack for clutch homeruns and throwing out base runners. He won’t continue to have an on-base percentage above .400 or a slugging percentage above .500, but can certainly be a part of the team as a quality backup catcher.
Grade: B
If Mayberry cannot get an “F” for that stat line when most of his at bats are against lefties and that was to be his specialty, who can get it? Also, Lagares has to start recognizing the slider and laying off it, plus don’t yank on the ball just hit it hard whether it be right field or left field.
Remember when all those people (cough Mike Francesca) were going nuts thinking about how we would handle Plawecki once TDA came back and thinking of crazy scenarios like sticking TDA in the OF or doing some crazy rotations with 1b, OF, and C?
I like the kid, but he’s clearly not ready to be starting. But you could have easily known that just by looking at his numbers in Vegas, as his 727 OPS (and just 561 this year) is really really bad. He needs to go back and master AAA first.
Nevertheless, i grade on expectations and not pure results, and i give him an B for filling in when he’s clearly not ready yet.
I agree. Though Plawecki hasn’t done great, I wasn’t expecting him to since he was being thrown in the fire before really being ready. So I think he’s done fine. Good for a B- for me.
It’s tough to do grades and I can’t really determine what you’re using for your basis. It seems heavily weighted towards actual production and assuming that’s the style you’re using — Lagares and Campbell seem to be the beneficiary of grade inflation and Recker should get a higher grade.
The Lagares grade of b- is a very, very soft Curve!
1000 ab’s in to his career, and the last hundred ab’s look way, way too much like the first 100, 200,,,,, 900.
He needs to advance his skill set…recognition…selection…. situation…
If I were a hitting coach, I’d be trying to figure out how to get some “loft” into Lucas Duda’s swing.
Everytime he’s crushed a ball this season — and he’s crushed a lot — it’s a line shot. Often a double.
I’d like to see the big man get more of those pull shots up, up, up into the air. Not at all sure how you teach that.
The question with Lagares, for me, has always been: How low is too low?
The defense is such a plus, I’ve always felt we could easily live with him at 700. Even at 650, maybe. But where’s the line? At 600 OPS, do you decide to sacrifice some of the great defense for more offense? Find a more balanced player?
I’ve always felt that he was a guy that could be traded. That is, he has value. I bet Sandy gets asked about him sometimes.
I’m not advocating that at all. Just saying that there’s a line, somewhere, that he has to meet offensively. In him, I see the potential to be a 750 OPS type hitter, should he ever figure out how to lay off those ridiculous two-strike sliders, and learn how to pull the ball with authority. I would not give up on him for a long, long while.
But!
I always hated Rey Ordonez.
The thing is that Lagares has had extended stretches of poor play before, so I’m not as quick to say what he’s going through now must be injury related — although it certainly could be.
2013 – .576 OPS, .277 BABIP, 247 PA
2014 – .593 OPS, .315 BABIP, 230 PA
2015 – .535 OPS, .279 BABIP, 59 PA (Since 5/1)
He doesn’t walk, he doesn’t hit for power so he needs an ultra-high BABIP to succeed.
As for where to draw the line on offensive production, this comes from a piece right after the 2013 season but it’s still relevant.
“only two center fielders – Taveras and Lewis – since 1990 had amassed at least 2,000 PA with an OPS beneath .650 and those two checked in at .647 and .645, respectively. It’s safe to say that this is the floor that managers will tolerate offensively and it’s likely they only did with these two because they were 30+ SB guys.”
To clarify: Lagares hasn’t really hit yet in his career, and the injury only popped up to effect his last few games. I don’t think it’s had an impact on his stats yet.
I just think that particular side injury is a nagging one and that the team needs him to gut it out, which he’s doing. No need to quote BABIP from 2013. But we’re different that way; no disrespect.
More and more, I’m finding 90% of the stats I encounter to be useless to me. Parsing the past like so many dead frogs. It’s like the Niese stuff, all written after the fact, based on too-small sample sizes and uncontrolled variables. He’s Terrible! He’s Great! He’s Terrible Again! Mostly I see is a guy whose “stuff” is no longer tight, with arm angle issues signaling (to me) that he’s managing an injury, and that he very well might be untradeable. Now he’s a competitor getting by on ordinary stuff, wiles, determination, and left-handedness. He’s going to have good games, average games, and rough ones. But what are the Mets going to do? Weak shoulders generally don’t get better.
There are many ways to enjoy the game and whichever way works for any individual is fine with me. But, if you’re looking to understand the game, stats have to be a large part of that. It’s not the only part, and smart people can honestly debate how great the percentage actually is.
But if you want to understand Juan Lagares on offense, you need to look into the stats. What he did in 2013 is still absolutely part of understanding what he’s doing today. Since coming to the majors, he’s always been a guy who lived and died with his BABIP. There’s really not any honest debate on that subject.
As for Niese, I understand the frustration that comes with his wild fluctuations so far this year. You can throw your hands up in the air and claim that it’s impossible to figure anything out with the small sample size. Or you can use stats to pinpoint where it went wrong. In his first 40 IP, he allowed 8 ER and then in his last 8.1 IP, he’s allowed 12 ER. There’s something different and it’s very possible that injury is the reason. The doctors should look at him. But we should also examine his pitching between innings 38-42 and see if there’s been a mechanical change that’s causing him to be so off with his location and getting hit so hard.
In general, I agree with you James. I also agree with Brian that there are many ways to enjoy the National Pastime. Some days Im compelled to keep score, other days not at all. As a scientist myself, I advocate for data as a way to understand phenomena, and so baseball’s modern metric world is one where I should naturally fit. I also spend a lot of time considering cause-and-effect relationships. And this is where the new pile of information runs off the rails with me. I think most of the describes what occurred, but it provides little clue about why something occurred. I also believe there is very little about what will occur in the next instant. As a whole, the reduction of every player’s action to a number, a quantity, provides what I think is a misleading sense of accuracy about a situation, enough so that cause-and-effect is over interpreted. Over at MMO today, Matt Balasis has an interesting article on this topic. One of the major issues that plague baseball metrics is the fact that all are based on substantial unaccounted for, and unknowable, variables that may strongly effect the outcome (what is the situation, is someone not feeling well, is the wind in a good/bad position, is the defensive set or pitcher delivery distracting…the possibilities are endless). The sweep these variables under the rug, which is really the only thing that can be done as far as I can tell. Numbers are not bad, they just need to be used only to the limits of the quality of data permits. I also think that the data is often used at face value without consideration for statistical error, and that is not good. Cause and effect versus spurious correlation…its worth keeping in mind. Like the old Latin saying goes: “post hoc ergo propter hoc”, or loosely, “after therefore because”.
Well, you are describing Ike Davis’ swing. If injuries and what-all hadn’t derailed Ike, the Mets would have really had a difficult decision to make between Davis and Duda.
Regarding Lucas this season, the two obvious taglines are his new-found ability to hit lefthanders, and the fact that he hasn’t launched many home runs. The first I find more interesting, since in his previous 4000+ Plate Appearances as a pro Duda had never hit lefthanders well.
My thought is: enjoy the moment, but write it down in pencil, so to speak. These things change. Darrel Strawberry played parts of seventeen years in the majors; in two of those years, 1987 and 1988, he abused left-handed pitchers. I believe he hit the most home runs in the NL against the lefthanders in 1988. Before and after those seasons, however, that ability was not there.
Chipper Jones, a switch hitter but a natural lefthanded batter, did very well hitting lefthanders — except in 1997, when he hit .250/.324/.342 in 200 AB’s against lefty’s.
No big conclusion here, except that for some hitters, hitting the same-handed pitchers appears to be a unique skill, one that requires constant maintenance or else can vanish.
The grades given are even-handed, that is, they are placed fairly within context of age, expectations, roles, etc.
I would have given Mayberry a “F”, but you put it in perspective.
Julian, a well-written interesting article. Thank you.
Jimmy… it’s actually the Zero Strike Sliders that are killing Legares. 1-2, 0-2 is an easy kill shot…he gets himself there too quickly….and too easily for the pitchers.
It’s unbelievable to think the Mets are over .500 with all the problems they have had. The lack of defense and offense is troublesome, and there needs to be some sort of spark in the lineup. As you said, Cuddyer just isn’t cutting it, and although Granderson and Murphy are showing some signs of life, who knows what to expect from them going forward.
Hopefully when d’Arnaud and Wright return, the offensive side of the game picks up. Great article Julian!
What’s great about a player like Lagares is that when he’s not hitting, you still get the benefit of his defense. Whereas Cuddyer gives you nothing.