With teams having hundreds of assets (mostly players) and dynamic varying needs it is pretty challenging to say this team should trade this player, or these players, to that team for such and such a player.
Yet still we who write about baseball persist in thinking up trades and reasons for why they could work for both sides.
It is evident to all that the Mets and Cubs match up well in terms of needs and surpluses. The Mets are offensively challenged and have a porous defense yet they have more starting pitchers varying from outstanding to OK than they need. The weakest part of the team is shortstop where mercifully the Wilmer Flores experiment seems to have ended only leaving the position to Punch and Judy hitter Ruben Tejada (more Judy than Punch really).
The Cubs meanwhile have built a team on young position players with at least two major league caliber shortstops and arguably a third and fourth one. Their front office seems to feel that Addison Russell is their “shortstop of the future” while the incumbent is a still young Starlin Castro. A power hitting threat, Javier Baez, spent most of his minor league years as a shortstop although it seems now that his future is as a major league second baseman or perhaps even in the outfield. Arismendy Alcantara also got his start at short but now is being groomed for a Ben Zobrist-like super utility role.
The Cubs are hurting at the bottom of their starting rotation. They sorely need a better #5 starter and perhaps even a 4 and a 5 if they want to make a good run at one of the Wild Card playoff spots.
It is difficult to sift through what we might call GM-speak to figure out what is really going on. I have read where Theo Epstein (Cubs’ team president) and Jed Hoyer (Cubs’ GM) want to improve the pitching staff but not add significantly to their payroll. Yet they are always in the discussion when big ticket guys like Cole Hamels are discussed. Hard to know what to make of that.
Hoyer said recently alluding to the Mets:
“We haven’t made a deal yet, but there’s been matches that made sense, and I’m sure we’ll talk to them in the future,”
And later added:
“But it’ll happen at some point.”
If we take the Cubs’ management at their word that (1) they don’t want to add to payroll and (2) Russell is their shortstop keeper then a trade of a shortstop to the Mets looks to be a fit – especially if the money works and the return is acceptable.
In the Hoyer/Theo perfect world they trade Castro plus some other stuff to the Mets and take home one of the Mets’ prized pitchers: deGrom, Harvey, Syndegaard, or Steven Matz. I think we all know that this is a nonstarter.
In Sandy Alderson’s perfect world (maybe one where he has a reasonable and flexible payroll) he trades Jon Niese plus other nonpremium stuff to the Windy City and brings back Russell. Sorry folks. That aint happening either.
Realistically if a deal is to be done between these teams, and assuming that the Mets have soured on Baez due to a possible inability to play shortstop, the central characters would figure to be Jon Niese and Castro. Undoubtedly the Mets would need to add something more perhaps on the order of Rafael Montero or Kevin Plawecki or Brandon Nimmo or Gabriel Ynoa. We’ll let the GMs hash this out.
For our purposes we will look at the principles in the deal.
Niese, assuming he is healthy (and that’s a large assumption) would immediately be the Cubs’ #3 or #4 starter. He would solidify the lower half of their rotation.
Castro is having one of his worst major league seasons. After Thursday’s game his line read .263 BA, .293 OBP, .341 Slug%, for an OPS of 634. This is nearly 100 points below his career OPS of 726.
To compare this to the Mets’ incumbent shortstop Tejada, his BA was .224, also a .293 OBP, .329 Slug%, for an OPS of 622. That lousy OPS is only 23 points below his career mark of 645.
Defensively these two shortstops are comparable. If we use the range ratings that the Strat-O-Matic Game Company gave the players – and remember 1= great, think Andrelton Simmons and 4=awful, think Flores – then we see that for the past two seasons both Castro and Tejada received grades of 3. Back in 2012 Castro was also a 3 while Tejada had a better year and received a 2.
I can anticipate a commenter pointing that Castro is not enjoying much more offensive success than Tejada. This is true. But I am of the opinion that Castro’s true offensive potential is as a player with a 726 OPS not the one we are seeing now. Tejada, and this is just this writer’s opinion, should not even be on a major league roster. He’s just that bad. Doesn’t his for average, doesn’t hit for power, doesn’t walk much, can’t run. He’s awful just awful.
Another way to say this:
Castro – a major league shortstop having an off year
Tejada – probably not accomplished enough to be a major league player
Flores- possibly has the bat to play in the majors but does not come close to the range needed to play shortstop
Now let’s look at the financials since we are assuming that both clubs want to trade a surplus to improve a weakness. Look at this table. The info comes from Baseball Reference.com
| COMPARING CASTRO AND NIESE SALARIES | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castro | Age | ||||
| 2015 | 25 | Chicago Cubs | $3,400,000 | ||
| 2016 | 26 | Chicago Cubs | $7,857,143 | ||
| 2017 | 27 | Chicago Cubs | $9,857,143 | ||
| 2018 | 28 | Chicago Cubs | $10,857,143 | ||
| 2019 | 29 | Chicago Cubs | $11,857,143 | ||
| 2020 | 30 | Chicago Cubs | $1,000,000 | Buyout | |
| $44,800,000 | for 4-1/2 yrs | Avg.–> | 9.96 million | ||
| Niese | |||||
| 2015 | 28 | New York Mets | $3,500,000 | ||
| 2016 | 29 | New York Mets | $9,000,000 | ||
| 2017 | 30 | New York Mets | $10,000,000 | $10M Team Option, $500k Buyout | |
| 2018 | 31 | New York Mets | $11,000,000 | $11M Team Option, $500k Buyout | |
| $33,500,000 | for 3-1/2 yrs | Avg.–> | 9.58 million |
The assumptions I have made are that the Mets would buy out Castro in 2020 since his salary otherwise balloons to about $16 million.
The Cubs, on the other hand, might keep paying Niese through his option years since the $10 and $11 million is about what most teams pay for their midrotation starters.
The bottom line is that a Niese plus stuff for Casto deal is pretty much financially neutral for the teams.
So with all this thoughtful analysis will the two teams actually make a deal centered around this pitcher and that shortstop? Perhaps but likely not.
Agree with you a thousand percent. I dont know if this deal can be made but I would take Castro in his worst year over Tejada in his best. He has more power and speed even when his average is a bit down. Also there’s an intangible factor of what it could mean to the infield and team to finally plug a fixture in at shortstop. Not to mention it would get the fan base excited.
Waiting for Metsense to chime in with a comment about how great Ruben Tejada is.
Just to get rid of Niese its a deal worth making. My sense is that the Cubs are a lot higher Castro than a trade for Niese, but pitching is critical, so perhaps this would get traction.
But be careful what you wish for. Castro can be a nightmare in the field between errors and picking dandelions. He has a Jordany Valdespin attitude, and does not want to leave the Cubs. When I saw him live at a game, he was the last off the field every half inning and last to make his position after the Cubs batted. He carries a privileged air that would certainly not be commonplace in the present roster. When he goes into a prolonged slump, makes 2 errors, and then forgets to turn a DP because he has the outs wrong, don’t say you haven’t been warned!
Don’t like Castro, he doesn’t play the game the “right way,” like the rest of Collins’s Mets! Ha!
Don’t like Tejada either, for all the reasons stated above.
Think Niese (if he holds up) is worth keeping, at least until Wheeler comes back 100%. Colon is the one to go now, if that’s possible.
Wish we had Uribe.
Don’t have any idea what the warning is about!!
Never mind, the warning went away.
As for the hustle factor I would say that surely we would love that a new acquisition have all the skills and also give what appears to be 100% effort at all times. But if Castro was like that then he would likely be an even more valuable commodity to the Cubs. The price to acquire him would be higher. His salary might be too high for the Mets to handle.
Then we have to look at recent history with hustlers vs non-hustlers. Didn’t the Mets let Justin Turner walk due in part to the fact that Collins and the front office didn’t want to keep around a player who didn’t run hard to first on all grounders? How much would we like to have a guy who can play all the infield spots and has carried an OPS around 900 for the past year?
Daniel Murphy sometimes doesn’t bust it down the line to first. Shall we dump him in favor of someone else who likely can’t hit as well? I doubt too many would be in favor of that.
But then you have the guys who really try hard like Granderson and Cuddyer.
Sure I’d like to have Castro as a Met with the motor transplanted from one of those two. The reality is that in a relative meritocracy like pro sports you take the bad with the good and hope you have more of the latter and just a little of the former.
I would get rid of Murphy, who is overvalued by the Mets with their lack of hitters. For the last 3-1/2 years, his OPS+ is only a bit over average, and his lack of hustle, bonehead plays, crummy power, and poor fielding makes him a non-keeper at his salary. Give me Cuddyer and Granderson any day over Murph. The former has righted the ship at the plate, but Collins should not have him in RF, and Cuddyer will be OK eventually, too.
The Mets need an infield upgrade and this trade does make a lot of sense.Castro is a proven and established former all star shortstop and only 25 years of age and should be entering his prime years. Adding Castro would be “like” adding another Daniel Murphy to the line up except Castro is not as consistent but when he is “on” his OPS goes higher than Murphy’s. Castro’s team friendly salary has a bonus in that the Mets would no longer need to tender Tejada this winter and will save $1.9M+ that Tejada would earn. This trade would help the 2015 Mets because there is no doubt that Castro is a substantially better player than Tejada (or Flores) and it will finally put closure on the Met SS position until 2020.
One thing the Mets have is starting pitching so Niese and any other pitching prospect could satisfy the Cubs needs. It is a shame that Sandy didn’t push hard for this trade when the Cubs were in town. Larry you were right, this was a thoughtful analysis.
Thanks.
I don’t think the Cubs are ready to do something like this just yet. It is helpful that Niese pitched well against them. I suspect they will be kicking the tires on a number of starters and maybe when the the mid- or late-July trading is in gear Niese will appear to them to be the best they can do without increasing payroll.
We’ll see.
I want no part of Castro, even if he came free. He’s a prima donna and a defensive liability.
Id consider a lighter deal for Baez and put him at third. Then decide if Murphy or Flores should man second and consider trading the other.
I still would prefer adding Tulo over Castro, inherent risks of age and salary included. Talk about dramatically changing the look of the lineup, not to mention the leadership factor. But I understand why it won’t happen, and after watching Thor and Matz pitch as well as they have so far after coming up, I doubt I’d be happy losing either of them (let alone both). The rotation next season could be lights out – but it won’t matter if we don’t get a “piazza-like” transformative bat.
If I was the Mets GM (How I wish!) I would consider this deal only if it were Niese for Castro straight up. I’m not giving away additional talent to get another bad defensive shortstop who’s having a very mediocre offensive year, and who is not a sure thing to rebound in the future. Actually, I think I’m talking myself out of this already. Next idea!
Exactly! Nice going!
I would not call Castro a bad defensive shortstop. He is comparable to Tejada who is an adequate defender who can not hit at all. In Castro you would have Tejada’s defense combined with likely offense better than Ruben’s and quite possibly better than Flores’. The cost would be something north of the team’s current #6 starter (#7 when Wheeler returns next year).
To ask for a better defender and a better hitter and one management would pay for and who comes at the cost approximately equal to Niese is asking for something that just can’t happen.
Ruben Tejada lifetime OPS .644
Wilmer Flores lifetime OPS .646
Castro has a career -29 DRS and -17.8 UZR. His UZR/150 for this season is -7.2. He might be the worst fielding shortstop out of Tejada and Flores. Combine that with a tremendously down year and a bad attitude, and he’s not worth Jon Niese. Oh, and everyone’s wonderboy Tulowitzki is actually having a worse year than Castro with the glove.
What are Castro’s splits away from the friendly confines of Wrigley Field? And if he’s having that bad of an offensive season in Wrigley I can’t wait for him to have 81 home games in Citifield.
Pete- for this season Castro at home: 517 OPS, road: 701
Career splits: home: 725 road: 720
So if he’d crater at CitiField there is nothing in those stats to indicate that. Let’s remember that as the Mets get nothing from SS this year they also have no particular prospects for the position next year. At least if they could obtain a guy like Castro they would have a viable major league caliber SS for the next few years.