Sandy Alderson’s first-round picks finally starting to perform for Mets

While the Mets have struggled to have their players cross home plate in the major leagues (and likely will for the rest of the season), Mets fans will likely do what they’ve been doing for the past 3-4 years – look at the progression of minor leaguers. Sandy Alderson has been criticized for not drafting a single pitcher on the Mets future rotation (Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, Zack Wheeler). Instead of drafting starting pitchers, Alderson has instead focused primarily on drafting offensive pieces, which is probably vital right now. Many of the first-round picks drafted by Alderson have been deemed “busts” for not being Jose Fernandez, Michael Wacha, or Joey Gallo, but every single one of them is showing immense potential this season. Let’s take a look:

(All stats are through June 19^th)

Brandon Nimmo: .275/.347/.361  2HR  16RBI  25:55 BB:K

Drafted: 2011 (13^th overall)

Okay, so Nimmo is not having a great season. He is the token underperformer on this list even with a solid average and on-base percentage. He has battled through a knee injury and a bit of inconsistency this year. The brightest aspect of his season is his .286 average against left-handed pitching.

Nimmo was once the epitome of failed prospects in the eyes of Mets fans. With his high strikeout rates, low homerun totals and slow progression, he was crucified. That all changed in 2014 when he had insane numbers and propelled AA Binghamton to a championship.  Nimmo might appear to be a trade piece at the deadline (although a move in extremely unlikely), but the Mets would wise to hold on to this future leadoff hitter.

ETA: mid-2016

Floor: another .650 OPS 8^th hole hitter that play solid defense, but disappear against lefties (lefty Juan Lagares)

Ceiling: The next Joc Pederson with a higher average, fewer strikeouts, and far less homeruns

 

Michael Fulmer: 4-2  2.30 ERA  82 innings  74K  1.098 WHIP  14 starts

Drafted: 2011 (44^th overall)

Fulmer might be the most underrated player in the entire farm system. He has a devastating fastball-slider combination that has recently been fueled by great control. He put on a full arsenal of his talent back in 2012 with a 2.74 ERA over 108.1 innings in 21 starts. Fulmer then suffered a severe knee injury that nearly kept him out of 2013, but he still managed to post a 3.33 ERA over 46 innings. His peripherals don’t appear to be that amazing in 2014, but over a stretch of 16 starts Fulmer had a 2.84 ERA.

This season has been a major step forward in his development recording a walk rate that falls lower than 2.5 BB/9 after a minor league career that eclipsed 3 BB/9. His strikeouts will never be overly high, but he clearly holds the ability to retire hitters on a regular basis. Fulmer appears to be another trade candidate and this might be the best option for his future. With the brilliant rotation that lies ahead, he would be clogging up the minors and it would be doing Mr. Fulmer a disservice.

ETA: late 2016

Floor: a consistent middle-relief pitcher who mops up the mess during a blowout (a glorified 2014 Buddy Carlyle)

Ceiling: a sometimes erratic 3^rd starter with the ability to flash potential of ace status (Edinson Volquez with fewer strikeouts)

 

Gavin Cecchini: .305/.368/.440  7HR  41RBI  31:36 BB:K

Drafted: 2012 (12^th overall)

Another first overall pick for the Mets that was absolutely crucified for simply existing, Cecchini has silenced every doubter across Mets nation. Cecchini showed flashes of potential with his 16-game hitting streak in which he clubbed a .409 batting average and his 27 doubles in 2014. However, none of this was enough for Mets fans to even let him breathe. After all, 2013 postseason star Michael Wacha was picked seven slots later.

This season has been one of the best redemption stories in minor league baseball. Cecchini has exploded with a season-long hot streak. He has been failing to strikeout, to get on base frequently, and hitting for slightly more power – all the while Amed Rosario breathes down his neck in A+ St. Lucie. He appears to be on the trade block (what else is new?) but with the Mets troubles at shortstop, he could be on the fast-track to Queens.

ETA: sometime in 2016 (depends where Panic City is at certain points in the season)

Floor: Ronny Cedeno with better defense

Ceiling: Ruben Tejada from late 2011 until 2012 with more power

 

Kevin Plawecki: .238/.283/.320  2HR  16RBI  9:39 BB:K

Drafted: 2012 (35^th overall)

We all know about this guy. Plawecki was faced with the tough task of replacing the production of Travis d’Arnaud and has mostly failed. Plawecki originally burst on to the scene in 2012 after getting drafted and posting reasonable numbers for rookie ball. He then heard of the R.A. Dickey trade and took off. Plawecki posted two remarkable minor league seasons in which he topped .300 both seasons to go along with less than 55 strikeouts.

Before getting called up, Plawecki was having early season struggles in AAA with a .216 average- not that it meant much. Since his call-up, he has largely failed to become the offensive force he demonstrated himself to be in the minor leagues. However, he has made enormous strides over the past few weeks to the tune of a .296 average since June 3^rd. Plawecki might not be the most attractive option right now, but it seems likely that he will start to figure out the major leagues. It would be wise to keep him with the health concerns of d’Arnaud.

ETA: already arrived

Floor: What he’s been

Ceiling: Russell Martin with less power

 

Dominic Smith: .301/.350/.422  4HR  54RBI  23:59 BB:K

Drafted: 2013 (11^th overall)

The was the first time in Sandy Alderson’s tenure that he did not receive any heat for drafting someone as his first overall pick. Smith has been practically beloved by Mets fans since he appeared on MLB Network with an ear-to-ear grin as Darryl Strawberry looked on- and for good reason. Smith was considered the best pure high school hitter in the entire 2013 draft. Known to have quick instincts and a knack for playing first base, Smith was quickly considered to be a budding superstar. He instantly lived up to that title in rookie ball as he slashed .301/.398/.439 with few strikeouts and a ton of walks. The following season, however, he fell off the prospect map. Smith failed to regain his plus bat as he hit a meager .271 with a pathetic .338 slugging percentage. That being said, he was playing in the toughest left-handed stadium in Savannah for half his games, so he got a bit of a pass.

This season has been a bit of a refreshing season for Mets fans as Smith has been absolutely tearing the cover off the ball. He has posted a .341 batting average since May 11^th and had a .352 average in June. The biggest plus to his game thus far, has been his ability to have steady, consistent at-bats against left-handed pitching. With a .749 OPS this season, and a .768 OPS last year, Smith appears to be on the fast-track to the majors. The only problem has been his lack of power, but many think it will come with age; after all, the kid is 20 years old. In the end, Smith appears to be the next franchise first baseman for the Metropolitans.

ETA: September call-up in 2016 (Starter on Opening Day in 2017)

Floor: James Loney with a better glove

Ceiling: Keith Hernandez with more power

 

Michael Conforto: .302/.375/.493  12HR  52RBI  37:60 BB:K

Drafted: 2014 (10^th overall)

Conforto stands to be the most praised pick by Sandy Alderson. Period. When he was drafted, there were whispers of Conforto sharing similarities to Lucas Duda. Conforto has laid these doubts to rest and has positioned himself in the national spotlight. In his rookie season, he put on a show in Brooklyn with a sparkling .331 average and an impressive three homeruns.

Nothing has changed this season, as Conforto has simply made himself the star of whatever field he plays on. In St. Lucie, he posted an impressive .811 OPS to go along with seven homeruns and 12 doubles. After getting the call-up to AA Binghamton, Conforto actually improved to the tune of a .933 OPS and five more homeruns. He put on a show at the futures game when he went 2-2 and had an outfield assist further garnering more national attention. Conforto just seems like a guy who the Mets will slide into an outfield rotation and it will look like he has already been there for five years. The only negative of his game is the ugly splits between righties and lefties: .324 average compared to a .252 average. There have been whispers of a possible call-up to the majors and it would be nifty if he gets the call and succeeds.

ETA: August 2015

Reasoning: The Mets are clearly not going to add an impact bat, so Conforto will be the last hope for legitimacy in the eyes of the front office.

Floor: Alex Gordon with sub-par defense

Ceiling: Jay Bruce in his prime with less strikeouts