The second half Mets baseball has been the craziest set of 17 games during the Citi Field era both for good and bad. It has been highlighted by two brutal losses in St. Louis (and a brutal win), the bullpen falling flat for the first time since April of 2014, and the rollercoaster ride that has been the trade deadline. Through the Wilmer Flores drama, the Juan Uribe heroics, and Lucas Duda’s complete domination at the plate, three trades added to the collection of vital impeding free agents in Queens. We’re not here to talk about how effective the trades were or how they might turn out, but instead to discuss who will be on the roster in 2016 and who won’t.
Jerry Blevins:
Chance of re-signing with the Mets: virtually impossible to measure
Should the Mets re-sign him? : Depending on how his pending September return goes
When the Mets were the best team in the sport (it seems like an eternity ago) Blevins was a big reason why. He appeared in seven games and retired all 15 batters that he faced. Plain and simple. Blevins anchored the left side of the bullpen, which ensured his ability to retire all 14 lefties he faced. However, a freak injury to the forearm has limited his ability to throw a baseball for the better part of the last three months. If/when Blevins returns, he will demonstrate whether or not the Mets should take a flyer on him for next season. He could be a viable option considering Alex Torres’ production, Sean Gilmartin’s clear ability to better retire righties, and Jack Leathersich’s injury. We’ll just have to wait and see.
Buddy Carlyle:
Chance of re-signing with the Mets: .01%
Should the Mets re-sign him? : No
The last “active” player who was a teammate of Tony Gwynn was an absolute horse for the Metropolitans back in 2014 as he posted a 1.45 ERA with a .903 WHIP. This season was pretty much the same- with the exception of two implosions against the Marlins and Nationals. However, after suffering an injury against the Cubs on May 11th, he has not seen any playing time and was recently moved to the 60-day DL. This injury appears to be career-ending, which is a shame. With all the young guns in the bullpen, he appears to be a silly option for the Mets. He will be missed.
Yoenis Cespedes
Chance of re-signing with the Mets: 10%
Should the Mets re-sign him? : Probably not
Cespedes was acquired on Friday at around 3:50. With the heavy price tag, it would seem that the Mets are investing a future with the slugger. This is not the case. Cespedes is almost purely a rental player for a squad looking to make the playoffs. With the Mets refusing to trade Brandon Nimmo, Juan Lagares, or Michael Conforto, it seems they have their sights on that trio to take form by the middle of 2016. There is still a slight chance that the Mets appreciate his production so much that they sign him to a nice little 4-5 year contract similar to what happened with Matt Holliday and the Cardinals back in 2009
With all this being said, Mets fans shouldn’t get their hopes up when it comes to Cespedes in Queens beyond 2015. There is almost no indication the front office wishes to keep him- especially with the Tigers expecting to re-sign him this offseason.
Tyler Clippard
Chance of re-signing with the Mets: 25%
Should the Mets re-sign him? : Yes
Clippard is an interesting case. After years of the Nationals pushing his arm to limits beyond imagination, he still appears to have the ability to produce. This is evident by his sub-3.00 ERA in each of the last three seasons (subject to change) and an ability to go more than an inning on multiple occasions. Clippard represents the ideal situation with a dominant right-handed presence on the mound, coupled with the ability to effectively retire both left-handers and right-handers with ease.
The Mets have a very young bullpen, with the older ones holding limited experience. Clippard provides a veteran presence in the pen, with a bit more postseason experience than the rest (although some of these guys will likely have it by the end of the year). It would be a wise decision to hold on to this guy, especially considering what they gave up. However, the Mets will probably be confident with what they’ve got.
Bartolo Colon:
Chance of re-signing with the Mets: 0%
Should the Mets re-sign him? : No
Colon has been a good soldier. The former Cy Young award winner has provided every Mets fan with smiles, wins, and almost zero opposing walks. He has provided the young pitching staff with a veteran presence, coupled with the ugly ERA near 5.00. Colon has done virtually everything the Mets could have asked for over the past 1 and 2/3 seasons, but it will likely stop there. Even with Zack Wheeler not returning until late June/early July, there are plenty of internal options to replace him.
It was a fun ride Bart’, but you will have to find success elsewhere come 2016.
Kelly Johnson:
Chance of re-signing with the Mets: 40%
Should the Mets re-sign him? : Yes
Johnson is pretty much a broke and job-less man’s Ben Zobrist, so perfect match here, right? In all seriousness, Johnson has not provided much of a box score difference, but he has provided the Mets with professional at-bats and a veteran glove. Johnson resembles the perfect bat off the bench for the Mets, and is a great option to spell some starters against tough righties. Not only does he have playoff experience, but he has played alongside future hall-of-famers.
The Mets will likely look to re-sign this guy, especially if he performs down the stretch. He would be perfect off the bench as utility and would be a great veteran presence.
Daniel Murphy:
Chance of re-signing with the Mets: impossible to say
Should the Mets re-sign him? : Yes, but at the right cost
Murphy is a front-office favorite. He has been with the Mets since their last September run and has been a solid contributor since. The Mets and their fans have always assumed that after 2015 he would walk with no questions asked (or be traded before then). However, after a truly atrocious offensive season by the Mets, it seems it would be smart to let him stay. But this is where it gets tricky. With Dilson Herrera, folk hero Wilmer Flores, and David Wright all occupying his prime positions, it would seem that there is no point to keeping Murphy.
The problem is that Murphy will looking for a 3-4 year contract, as he should, and the Mets will be looking to give out nothing of the sort. The Mets might overpay because they feel obligated to do so, but it is just impossible to make a guess. If he is looking for a 1-2 year deal, they should lock him up.
Bobby Parnell:
Chance of re-signing with the Mets: 50%
Should the Mets re-sign him? : Depending on his performance down the stretch
Parnell, at one point, seemed like a lost cause; another 100mph thrower would never reach his potential. This all changed after Jason Isringhausen got through to Parnell and taught him the devastating knuckle-curve. The sky seemed limitless. However after two major injuries, the closer job has been revoked and he is barely pushing across 95mph fastballs. Until recently, he was effective in the set-up role, as he had been from 2010-2012.
Parnell is the token “soft-tosser” in the bullpen now. Keeping a player of his experience would be great for the story of Parnell, but maybe not great for the Mets. If he continues to prove his old form it would not be stupid to keep him However if he struggles, the Mets should let him find a new team.
Juan Uribe:
Chance of re-signing with the Mets: 5%
Should the Mets re-sign him? : No
Uribe is the ultimate veteran presence on this ball-club. He is the only player on the team with a World Series ring (two in fact) and has performed in the clutch on numerous occasions. His homerun in game four of the 2013 division series was unbelievable and his homerun in the first game against Texas back in 2010 was crucial to the game and series. Uribe is a player who many will look up to- and they should. The only problem is that Uribe is getting old. Re-signing him would be a mistake for the Metroplitans, even if he is a good-luck charm.
The Mets seem to be the best team in the National League East, at the moment. So none of this matters. However, the next two months will be crucial in deciding who will take the field for the 2016 Mets squad.
Side note: Jenrry Mejia should never pitch on a Major League field again. I supported him through the first suspension, but he made me look like a fool.
I think your title means to say “impending” not “impeding”.
Thank you. It has been fixed
Let’s say Murphy is OK with signing a 2 year deal but wants a raise from the $8 million he is playing for in 2015. Would you give him 2yrs-$20 million? I think the Mets would not go there especially with no defined position for him next year if they expect Wright to play 3B and Dilson Herrera to take over at 2B. Plus Wilmer would still be around to partly cover those spots.
I don’t understand the Parnell negativity. His velocity is coming back, and he’s been pretty good, except for a couple of blow ups. I’m not saying he needs to be back, but his asking price probably won’t be too high to keep.
Especially with Mejia not being apart of the future, it may be wise to bring back both Clippard and Parnell. I don’t expect Parnell to return to his old ways, but he still is a valuable pitcher in the bullpen.
The lack of financials is a real problem in these assessments.
Well the only guy that will command more than 50 million will be Cespedes. Murphy might be a bit expensive, but other than that they should all command under five million.
This article would be more topical in October when their would be a full body of work to analyze but then it wouldn’t be called “predictions”.
Clippard would want more than his current $ 8.3M and Parnell will want to at least match his $ 3. 7 M. Blevins got $ 2.4 M. That is $14.4 M that should not go to this trio but redistributed.
Murphy at $8 M is steep when you can keep a less expensive ($ 2 M ?) Kelly Johnson for a back up role for either Flores or Herrera. Johnson also plays the outfield and third. Kelly is a yes.
Colon is not needed and another $11 M comes off the books.
Uribe is a nice piece but unnecessary at a high salary (but below his current $ 7.5 M)
So we saved a lot of money in order to extend Cespedes. That should be the move by Sandy. He is a five tool player, an offensive machine and can play a premier position in center field. Could he be had at double his current salary, 5 years/ $ 105 M ? Sandy should ask.