Since the trade deadline frenzy last week there has been much speculation as to whether all of the newly acquired Mets will be gone when the 2016 team is minted.
The big fish that all Mets fans would love to keep is Yoenis Cespedes but I think we all know in our heart of hearts that this is extremely unlikely. My guess is that the least he would sign for is five years/ $100 million and I suspect he will get more years, perhaps seven, and lots more dollars from some big market/big payroll team. Absent a voluntary retirement of David Wright it does not figure to be in the Wilpons’ DNA to spend these kinds of dollars on a terrific power hitting outfielder like Cespedes. I have seen odds put for his signing with the Mets at 1% and that sounds about right to me. Alas.
I would also tend to doubt that Juan Uribe or Tyler Clippard will be back. In Uribe’s case he is basically a one position player, that position being third base. If we think and hope that David Wright will retake the position in 2016 it is doubtful that the club would bring back Uribe as a glorified pinch-hitter.
Clippard is a stellar set-up reliever and it would be great to have him setting up Jeurys Familia for all of next season. But here again I suspect he will be just too pricey. I could be wrong there and hope I am but I don’t see him returning.
So of the newbies (and I don’t care to include Eric O’Flaherty in that group especially after his initial outing on Wednesday night) the one guy who could fit and likely could be afforded is Kelly Johnson.
Daniel Murphy has been a good player and a good soldier for the Mets for seven years. He is due to become a free agent at season’s end. Most pundits think he’ll be in line for a contract of perhaps two or three years in length and upwards of $10 million per year. And if Jeff and Fred (owners Wilpon) did not want any part of Carlos Gomez at $9 million next year I think we can conclude they won’t want Murphy at $10 million on a multiyear deal.
Kelly Johnson is an interesting comp to Murphy in that both left handed veteran batters have played the same positions during their careers: second base, third base, first base, and the corners of the outfield. Those of us who remember Murphy trying the outfield in the past have visions of the failed Todd Hundley experiment back in 1998. Murphy and Hundley were the main reasons I suppose that Strat-O-Matic Baseball started issuing the occasional “5” range rating for exceptional awfulness.
This table showing career numbers for both players gives you a good idea of how similar the two players are.
| AGE | BA | OBP | SLUG% | OPS | OPS vs LHP | OPS vs RHP | 2014 salary | 2015 salary | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnson | 33 | 0.251 | 0.332 | 0.424 | 0.755 | 767 | 751 | $ 3 million | $ 1.5 million | ||
| Murphy | 30 | 0.288 | 0.332 | 0.418 | 0.750 | 660 | 781 | $ 5.7 million | $ 8 million | ||
| Games played at–> | 2B | 3B | 1B | OF | |||||||
| Johnson | 819 | 87 | 56 | 171 | |||||||
| Murphy | 483 | 81 | 158 | 60 |
After a solid 2015 I think Johnson can expect a nice raise but I think a one year deal on the order $3 to $4 million would get it done.
Doing the research surprised me a bit because I always saw Johnson as the type of player who had to be platooned while Murphy has been an everyday player. Yet look at their splits. Murph has pretty much a normal platoon split while for his career Johnson has actually been a bit more productive against lefties.
My conclusion is that the 2016 Mets will not have Cespedes, Clippard, Uribe, or Daniel Murphy on it but very well might have Kelly Johnson as the utility lefty stick.
I would bring Clippard back. He’s not quite the pitcher he was with the Nats, but he still gets the job done most of the time. As for Murph/Johnson, I doubt the Mets will pay Murphy, and while Johnson is a contributor, he duplicates a lot of talent the Mets have in their system. I’d prefer to see Herrera, with a side order of T.J. Rivera. Matt Reynolds hasn’t forgotten how to play either. No, there should be no place for Kelly Johnson on the roster next year.
I would resign Murphy as a 3rd baseman cuz Wright really needs to learn how to play the outfield if he medically wants to both protect himself while keeping his career alive. I just do not see him being able to safeguard his spin while playing 3rd base at the Major League level. He might be able to adequately field at either right or left field. I would definitely sign Murphy to play 3rd base. Keep Flores at 2nd base where he fields really well. I’d let Tejada go in order to save money and I would see if Cecchini, TJ Rivera or Reynoldsis ready for the Majors. I would also have Tovar is my backup utility infielder. We know he fields and throws well and has speed, He might not hit much but if it above the Mendoza line then he is doing substitute ok considering it is his defense and speed that intrigue. I would not keep Johnson or Uribe but would see what Cespedes wants and see if I could afford him. Lagares is going to probably need Tommie John surgery and will be out for awhile so having Wright covert to the outfield makes the most sense. That of course, is contingent upon if he can field or not. The Mets do not need the second coming of a Daniel Murphy or Lucas Duda-esq circus performance without the safety net in the outfield. I would also see if d”Arnaud can play LF or RF or even 1B, I would also like to see Kirk Nieuwenhuis try his hand as a 1st baseman in the off season like a winter league stint just to give him more options. Hell. Maybe he could even try his hand at 3B? It does not hurt to see if these guys can succeed at other positions.
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kelly johnson can play of and infield so if cespedes leaves he can be a inexpensive home run piece out there
With all of the pending free agents, there are going to be a lot of decisions to be made in the offseason by the front office, and a lot of speculating by us bloggers and fans – especially with regards to te infield. In the meantime let’s savor every moment of what has developed into a special season.
Great sentiment!
Clippard’s salary for 2015 is $8.3 million. Even if we agree that he has had a slightly off season (his WHIP is higher than for his career while his ERA is a bit lower than his career mark) one has to imagine that someone will give him $6 or $7 million to be an 8th inning guy next year. Does that really sound like something the Wilpons will go for? Doubtful.
why not? That’s a relatively low price for a highly perceived need. With Murphy off the books, it’s the most obvious way for Mets mngt. to step up in an affordable way. I agree with DED’s comments above. Murph and KJ are redundant to Herrera and Reynolds.
i think if johnson can play inf and of and play for 3-4 mil he could stay?
Murphy is a lifetime .289 hitter compared to Herrera 50 points less who hasn’t proven himself. Therefore, it’s insult to Murph to even make that comparison. Mets have a long history of making bad decisions letting good players go elsewhere based on hope for their replacements. As a huge Mets fan I don’t want to see Murphy leave, but he will sign with a team that will appreciate his talents. Philly aside, NY is a horrible place to play because of a brutal press and berating fans. Write it down, all of our current young 6 inning pitching wonders will definitely exit. David Wright will finish his career in NY with no hope of a World Series ring. Same scenario for future Met players. Good luck Daniel Murphy. Some of us really appreciate and thank you for your efforts. Much better years are ahead for you and the Mets will defiitely regret ever letting you sign with another team.
If the Mets win the division, the money flows into the playoffs for the Wilpons. Along with the $$ coming off the books in 2016- Colon $10m, Murphy $5m, Uribe $2m (bal of 2015),Gee $2m, Blevins $1m, that alone is $20m to begin the talks regarding Cespedes.
If Mets can find someone to take on at least half of Michael Cudaver’s $10m, that would be another $5m. Would hate to see Murphy go, but Mets can keep Kelly Johnson to back up both Wright at 3b, and Wilmer at 2b at a much cheaper price. Let’s face it, Tejada probably keeps his job at SS, thanks to his defense and .260 hitting. Rumors for an upgrade will be on all winter, but Sandy is not trading any of the “Fab 5”- Harvey, Degrom,Thor, Matz, Wheeler.
Keeping Conforto in left with Cespedes in CF and Grandy in RF would leave LF at a low budget number. Lagares and Kirk as OF backups (great D in both cases) also is not pricey. Keeping both Plawecki and d’Arnaud as backstops is cheap as well. Finally, the Pitching staff is low budget as well with all the kids, especially if Niese is traded. Bullpen too, is low budget with exception of Clippard, if he is resigned. If not, Mets could go with Familia, Parnell (a year removed from TJ surgery should be better) Robles, Edgin, Gilmartin,C. Torres, perhaps Blevins on a cheap deal to prove if he can get back.
Bottom line, the money will be there with some creativity to keep Cespedes.
I wish they could keep Murph too, but that is unlikely just as a backup, unless the Captain is just not W(right). In that case, keep Murph too. Find a way.
Actually Murphy is making $8.3 million this year so that’s more saving but Cuddyer will be making $12.5 million next year. Unlike some teams who front load contracts which makes it easier to unload players who are not performing well the Mets backload contracts which makes it harder.
There’s no question the Mets should sign Murphy. He’s their best hitter, gives them professional AB’s, and can hit both lefties and righties. He’s also the Mets batter that opposing managers least want to face with men on base. Remember that in the recent Dodger series. Mattingly continuously walked him with men in scoring position. If he played at Yankee Stadium and decided to pull more often, he could hit 25 homers a year. Notice his homers are never cheapies.
Over the years, whenever the Mets lost, traded or neglected to sign their best hitter, the team went into a half decade or more tailspin. Cleon Jones, Gregg Jeffries, Dave Magadan, John Olerud and Jose Reyes are some examples.
Most importantly, he’s shown that he can hit in a Mets uniform and loves the organization that he grew up in. Too often the Mets bring in players with big contracts and the uniform is like kryptonite to them!
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It is a shame that the Mets may lose Murph to free agency despite everything he has done for this organization. Murph is a solid utility player who can help the Mets for years to come. And who knows, the Mets may keep Cespedes…he has expressed interest in resigning with the ball club, and there is no doubt the Mets would love to have him back!
I like Daniel Murphy but Herrera is the future. The Mets also have other second baseman in the system, Flores, Reynolds and Mazzilli. The Mets should sign Johnson, a comparable comp to Murphy for much less time and money. Johnson is not redundant but is a veteran presence who has more versatility than Murphy. The current team lacked that veteran presence on the bench before June 24th and it showed. Sign Johnson and let Murphy walk.
It all comes down to money. I am sure the Mets would love to keep Murphy and move him around from 2B to 3B with some 1B thrown in. But I doubt they want to pay $10 million to keep him.
Murphy has the bat we love, but so many holes in other aspects of his game, that the bat about makes him an average player. His mysterious play with the glove, throwing, and base running defies explanation. He does not have the footwork or arm to stick at 3B. He plays better on the right side of the infield. The question is do you offer him something like a 3/24 deal with a low aav but give him 3 years. I’d never offer the QO.