August is a little more than half way over, and the Mets have a convincing enough lead over the Washington Nationals in the National League Eastern Division to begin thinking about the post season. As any fan would expect, a lot of work and thought goes into a team’s post season, including ticket sales, promotions, and most importantly: the roster. Figuring out a team’s post season roster can be extremely difficult, especially for a team like the Mets who have had somewhat of a revolving door concerning the last three or so roster spots throughout the season. Sandy Alderson clearly has his work cut out for him and it will not get any easier as time goes on. Therefore, here is some advise for Alderson when it comes time to pick the roster.
Starting Eight
1. Travis d’Arnaud
2. Lucas Duda
3. Daniel Murphy
4. David Wright
5. Kelly Johnson
6. Michael Cuddyer
7. Yoenis Cespedes
8. Curtis Granderson
Not many surprises will come from the Mets’ starting eight, because the team has kept a somewhat consistent lineup recently. Of course, Wright will have to sit out a few more games than most due to health concerns, but he should be a stable piece in the hot corner come October. Also, Wright will help Cuddyer, Cespedes, Johnson, and Granderson in the group of post season experienced players while Murphy, Duda, and d’Arnaud will get to have their first licks at October baseball.
Starting Rotation
1. Jacob deGrom
2. Matt Harvey
3. Steven Matz
4. Noah Syndergaard
5. Bartolo Colon
The post season will be an extraordinary time for the Mets to show off their superb starting pitching, and there is not a true weakness in the starting five. The only pitcher on that list that may raise a few eyebrows is Colon due to his recent struggles, but he certainly brings experience to such a young core group of pitchers. Jon Niese got the bump in this list, but he will still be on the roster…just not in a starting spot.
Bench
1. Juan Uribe
2. Wilmer Flores
3. Michael Conforto
4. Juan Lagares
5. Anthony Recker
6. Ruben Tejada
The Mets post season bench may as well be another team’s starting lineup, because it is just that good. All six of these players contribute something huge to the Mets, and will continue to do so come October. Tejada and Lagares can be used for defense, Conforto and Flores for their bat, Recker as a backup catcher, and Uribe as both a replacement for Wright and an experienced veteran. These players may not make up the best bench in the game right now, but it is hard to say it is not close.
Bullpen
1. Niese
2. Sean Gilmartin
3. Eric O’Flaherty
4. Carlos Torres
5. Tyler Clippard
6. Jeurys Familia
The Mets’ bullpen can range anywhere from a strength for the team to a major weakness. That being said, these six all know that September baseball means it is time to get their act together, and they will not shy down from the challenge. With these six guys backing the Mets’ All-Star starting rotation, the Mets will be able to enter each and every ballgame with their heads held high knowing there is a great possibility that they will win!
Creating post season rosters is not an easy task. It takes a lot of thought and effort, especially for the General Manager of an organization. If one piece of the roster falls apart, the entire team may end up going down and failing their dreams of having a World Series title to call their own. But if Alderson uses this roster as a guideline, there is no doubt the Mets will be extremely successful in the post season, which means a World Series title may not be too far off.
um, not for nothing, but i never saw a playoff team without a shortstop in their starting lineup …
Shortstop is one issue. The other is the rotation. I would still put Niese in the rotation and either Matz or Syndergaard would go in the pen. Two unsung heroes in the Mets championship seasons were Nolan Ryan in 1969 (game 3) and Sid Fernandes (game 6 I think) in 1986. Both came out of the pen and the Mets would not have won either World Series without them. Matz or Syndergaard could be one of them.
Rumor is that Kelly Johnson may end up playing SS in order to get his experience into the lineup.
rumor? what rumor?
Do you really think at 33y Kelly Johnson is going to play SS for the first time? If people had an issue with Wilmer, at least he played short in the minors for several seasons and had a season+ to get used to it in the majors. I don’t think handing short to a journeyman utility player will fly
Also you don’t need 5 in the rotation for the playoffs – leave Colon out or in the pen. And I wouldn’t count on Wright at all. If he can play, all the better. But he hasn’t really played in 2 years
Good point. I think Kelly Johnson has to be out. And I don’t get this hatred of Lagares. Even Keith talked about him not delivering. Didn’t TC say at the deadline, “if you hit you play?” Well, here are the numbers from 8/1.
Uribe .169
Johnson .189
Granderson .238
Conforto .241
Cespedes .275
Lagares .370
While most of Lagares’ hits have been vs LH’ers, not all. He PH a hr vs a RH’er and had another double. He’s 10 for 27. Despite Grandy’s 2 hr’s last night, he’s now 4 for his last 27. IMO, he hits rag arms like last night, RH’ers who throw 91-92. He does not hit 95mph fastballs, nor good curves, nor lefties. He’s 15-101 vs LH’ers on the season. Lagares needs to play more. Playing Cuddy last night was absurd. Despite Lagares “bad season”, he’s still second in BA for Mets with at least 300 AB’s. Just like last year.
To be fair, Gausman was throwing 95-96 last night, not soft tossing 91-92. But Grandy has been by far the most consistent Met this whole year, so I have no problem leaving him in during a minor slump. I would like to see more of Lagares, however, even if it’s at the expense of Conforto for now.
Grandy most consistent? I don’t know. The hr’s are there, but he hit .291 in June, .250 in August and .238 this month. He hits guys like last night, 91-92, slider speed guys. I just don’t see him hitting post season guys like Arrieta, Cole, Greinke, etc. The young guys can hit heat, older guys can’t. The older guys feast on hangers, sliders, changeups. In the afternoon game Thor pitched vs the Rockies, Grandy homered, and Ron said, “that was good hitting by Granderson. He got 3 change ups in a row, and sat on that pitch”. Okay, but is he going to see that kind of pitching post season? He’s 7 for his last 49 and 15-101 vs LH’ers. I just don’t think he can hit tough pitching. If Jimenez stills throws 95+mph, he won’t hit him tonight. Murph will, as he can hit real heat. I don’t know how he throws these days. If he’s turned into a junk ball pitcher, Grandy will hit him. The young guys won’t.
Why are you looking at batting average as a measure of offensive quality? You’re so much better off looking at OBP and SLG.
Baseball-Reference has splits based on the type of pitchers, where they break them down by Power, Avg and Finesse. Here’s the definition: “Power pitchers are in the top third of the league in strikeouts plus walks. Finesse are in the bottom third of the league in strikeouts plus walks. Stats are based on the three years before and after (when available), and the season for when the split is computed.”
This year versus power pitchers, Granderson has a .911 OPS, which is outstanding
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=grandcu01&year=&t=b
Robles? I think he has a big 6 weeks and goes into the playoffs as a key man in the BP.
No way Recker over Plawecki … Recker is an automatic out while Plawecki has more upside
Agreed. I think Plawecki comes back before 9/1. Then again, he’s hitting .197 at LV, while guys like Ceciliani and Soup are hitting .345 and .360 respectively. So, Plawecki is going to have to put together a good 10 games if he is to be brought up.
The starting 4 in the rotation are going to be Harv, Degrom, Niese, and Colon with Matz and Noah being your stud L/R in the pen. The rest of the pen will be Familia, Clippard, C Torres, Gilmartin and then either Robles, Verrett, Goeddel, or….if he comes back Parnell.
Plawecki will be on the team over Recker. KJ will be on the bench with Flores or Tejada.
And no – our bench would not be starting on other playoff teams.
Please, not Parnell…
No way you put Syndergaard in the pen.. His stuff is as good as anyone’s in the rotation, plus with the opportunity to go up 3-0 in a series, you gotta take it. Matz will be power arm to bridge it to Clippard and Familia
I just think Noah is the one with the strictest innings limit and if you can get away with putting him in the pen, you do it. It turns a weakness into a strength without sacrificing too much of a prior strength.
Yeah, I disagree with 4-5 of the guys on this list, a surprisingly high number.
But basically I think: too soon. A pointless exercise in the middle of August. Too many games left, too much still to happen, too many unknowns, and there’s still a strong possibility there is no postseason for this team.
For me as a reader, I think the blogging focus should be on the here and now. Just my POV.
I almost commented on Colon, for example. To me, today, I don’t think he has a role on a postseason roster. Useless in the pen, probably, and I don’t want to give him a start. That said, there’s a lot of baseball left. He’s got 8-9 starts left. Anything I can say now is pointless compared to what we’ll know in 6 weeks.
Yes.. sir, we can’t be talking about post season with over 40 games left, especially with the history of this franchise
Exactly James…fun exercise, but we need a lot of baseball to happen before were there.
In any event, wow, Dan…I disagree in many places just on the thought exercise.
If the pot season began on Friday, heres my team:
1. They will not drag a starting rotation of 5 to the post season. If COlon cant produce wins for the team, then hes the odd man out. My rotation is :
degrom (rhp), harvey (rhp), syndergaard (rhp), and niese (lhp).
2. I give a 0% chance Kelly Johnson mans the most important middle infield spot having played almost no games there…his bat? Perhaps you should look at the numbers.
3. David Wright is a total unknown quantity. 3 walks yesterday, a few hits against A+ pitching… and making errors. I dont understand the rush to get him back. I take Uribe over Wright as the guy at 3B. Uribe is the best 3B this team has.
My starters (with platoon partner or bench):
2. TdA (r) (Plawecki, r; Johnson, l)
3. Duda (l) (Cuddyer, r; Johnson, l)
4. Murphy (l) (Flores, r; Johnson, l)
5. Uribe (r) (Wright. r)
6. Tejada (r) (reluctantly, Flores, r)
7. Conforto (l) (Cespedes, r; Cuddyer, r)
8. Cespedes (r) (Lagares, r)
9. Grandy (l) (Lagares, r; Cuddyer, r)
4. Matz will fill some spot starts as will Verrett, but both will go to the post season in the pen.
My pen: Familia (rhp), Clippard (rhp), Verrett (rhp), C Torres (rhp), Robles (rhp) (possibly Goeddell), Matz (lhp), Gilmartin (lhp),
Matz can move to a start if an injury or desperation occurs. I can envision Colon (rhp) in place of Robles (rhp). Colon does not make my post season team.
Makes sense to me.
I would replace Recker with Plawecki, and Colon/O’Flaherty with Verrett/Goeddel.
The only postseason that Colon should be pitching in is the PCL playoffs.
I’d rather forfeit a game in the postseason than have to watch him jiggle out there and throw beachballs.
Think back to Adam Wainwright. Having Matz in the pen could be our secret weapon.
Plawecki gets my pick over Recker. Bullpen is a tough call right now but I’m leaning toward Goedell over O’Flaherty.
This site lost all credibility with that Kelly Johnson at shortstop thing and not realizing you don’t have a five man rotation in the playoffs. Sheer stupidity.
Analysts on MLB Network and a few radio shows I listen to did say that Johnson would play SS in the playoffs. As for the rotation, teams with young pitching like the Mets have gone to a 5 man in the past, and it would be a good idea for the Mets to do so for innings limit purposes.
i really, really, really doubt that Johnson would learn to play on the job at a demanding position that he’s never played, in the most important games this franchise has played in a decade. I imagine that the thought of him playing short was brought up by Bill Ripken or Millar, who aren’t exactly the brightest guys at MLB. It is a really, really ridiculous notion.
That’s insanity Dan. The last thing on Earth you do is put someone who does not play a position in it for the post season. Whoever mentioned it is ridiculous. And the reason Matz ends up in the pen for the post season is because he’s an emergency starter.
Agreed. This post doesn’t match the epic irrelevance of Dan’s ‘Mets = Avengers’ post or the nonsensical idea of getting Bautista for Gee and junk, but it’s close. Some of his posts make me feel like my brains are oozing out of my ears. That being said, reading his articles are a guilty pleasure.
Speaking of innings limits, what happens when the kids reach their caps in mid September? You still won’t need a 5 man rotation even if the kids are over their limits. Johnson should be the super sub in case of injury or if needed (just not at SS). Parnell and Recker should not be on the play off roster. Maybe for the 51’s. Niese should be one of your SP’s with Matz and Thor in the pen. Does Matz spot start in September to stretch out the innings limits of Harvey, deGrom, Syndergaard and Thor?
last time I checked syndergaard and thor are the same person
Mets get rid of torres of lantern goddess smokers add
Oops my bad Jack! Sorry about that.