Broadcasters Howie Rose and Keith Hernandez sprinkle allusions to the Strat-O-Matic Baseball game they played extensively in their teens. It is a game that is still going strong and the defensive grades it assigns players are respected for accuracy and consistency.
In recent years as a service to my fellow league members I give them my take on the defensive grades that the game company might give to the Mets players since we fans get to see the team so very often.
To bring those unfamiliar with the game up to speed: Each player gets a range rating from 1, best (think Andrelton Simmons at SS and the 2014 Juan Lagares in CF) to 5, excruciatingly awful (like Hanley Ramirez, Lucas Duda, Daniel Murphy, or Adam Dunn in the outfield). The 5 is not really used often so a legitimately poor fielder, e.g. Daniel Murphy or Dan Uggla, gets a rating of 4. We write this 2B-4.
The rating of 2 goes to those who are solidly above average fielders while the 3 goes to those fielders who are average to slightly below average.
In addition outfielders and catchers are given throwing arm ratings. High minus numbers are desired like Bryce Harper’s -4 howitzer while a high plus number like the noodle arm of Ben Revere (+3) is an invitation to baserunners to take the extra base.
So let’s try to predict the grades for the current Mets squad. We’ll avoid the Danny Muno’s of the world since they are too marginal in use to consider.
Lucas Duda- Big Luke has become a responsible defensive player with just occasional lapses. He certainly is not a 1 or a 4. Sometimes he strikes me as 1b-2 but my gut says he will get the same 1b-3 rating as he did in the current card set that represents his 2014 efforts.
Daniel Murphy- One almost constant thing in SOM is that if Murphy is playing an infield spot, first, second, or third then he gets a 4 everywhere. One year when he played a lot of 1b he did get a 3 but he has not been there a lot this year. 4’s all around. Book it.
Dilson Herrera – He showed little with the bat or the glove when he was active. Someday he will likely be a bat-first 2b-3. As a comp we could see him similar to Jose Altuve who usually gets 2b-3 grades. But for the 2015 Mets Dilson will be a 2b-4.
Ruben Tejada– Ruben is probably the prototypical SS-3. Some skill but not the range you would ideally prefer in a major league shortstop. He has played some second and third this year. Were he a regular at either of those spots he would probably be rated a 2b-2 and/or 3b-2 but with the part-time assignment he will likely get 3’s at all three middle infield posts.
Wilmer Flores– He’s the guy who bounces a high percentage of throws to first base and he is range challenged. He is a sure SS-4. He has a bit more skill at 2B and may someday get a 3 there but my guess is that the next card set has him as a 2b-4.
David Wright – Obviously if this were college he’d get a grade of Incomplete for the course. The captain has had 1’s, 2’s, and 3’s in his long Mets third base career. The game company probably goes 3b-3 unless they want to give him a nostalgic 2.
Juan Uribe – This guy can pick it. He’s not a gold glover but he is real good. 3b-2 is the only reasonable rating.
Kelly Johnson– Has always been a bat-first utility player and usually gets 4’s wherever he plays. When he plays a lot of third base he can pull a 3. This year between his time in Atlanta and Queens he has played 1b, 2b, 3b, LF, and RF. He will get a 4 at all of those positions.
Curtis Granderson– We know he doesn’t throw well. That’s why his arm often rates as a +2. Last year he received a 3 in RF but my opinion is that he has looked better out there. Let’s hypothesize a RF-2(+2) for the Grandyman. Hopefully next year the team will come to its senses and play him in LF where he belongs. He also played a bit of CF but likely gets a 4 there.
Juan Lagares- The former Gold Glover has taken a dive. His range is still above average while his arm is not. A CF 1(-4) will drop to CF 2(+1). Once his bum elbow is attended to maybe we will see a return to a minus arm in future years.
Michael Cuddyer– If you love his bat then you will love his glove. But likely you hate the way he has hit and his fielding has not been significantly better. He will get 4’s at LF, RF, and 1B. His arm is actually pretty good and a -1 throwing rating is quite possible in the corner outfield.
Yoenis Cespedes– The game company has not loved his range in the past but has given him as much as a -5 arm. My assessment is that he has more range than that but a smidge less arm. My call is LF-2 CF-3 and for an arm we’ll guess -4. It really could be a -3 arm, still quite awesome.
Michael Conforto – We were warned that fielding was not going to be a plus when this young man arrived. And while he has been better than expected and has flashed an accurate arm it is still likely that he will receive a grade looking like LF 4(-1).
Kirk Nieuwenheis – LF 2, CF 3 with a 0 for an arm.
Travis d’Arnaud – He will never get a C-2 rating but he looks better behind the dish than he did last year. Let’s promote him from a 4 to a 3. The arm is nothing to write home about: still +1.
Kevin Plawecky- Rookie catchers are always hard to rate. We’ll guess at c-4(0). His arm is tricky in that it is less powerful than most catchers’ arms but his release is quicker and he has satisfactory accuracy.
Anthony Recker – When you hit as feebly as Mr. Handsome does then you had better be Pudge Rodriguez defensively. He’s not that. His 2014 rating was c-3(-2). We won’t quibble with that and will project that it looks like that again.
On balance this is a below average defensive team. Thankfully we have seen the last of infields consisting of Eric Campbell (another sure 4 everywhere) at 3b, Wilmer Flores (4) at SS, and Murph (4) at 2B. The pitchers must have just loved looking around to see that combo.
Larry, when I played, teams records were taken into account. They won’t dump on the Mets if they win their division but I don’t know where I can argue with most of your thoughts. Only a few disagreements:
Conforto is not a 4 outfielder. I think 3. He hasn’t embarrassed himself out there and allowed fly balls to sail over his head for extra base hits.
The catchers won’t be 4’s. When I played, there was a huge difference between a 4 catcher and a 3. I expect Plawecki and TDA to be 3’s.
Can they give a bunting E to Mets pitchers?
It certainly is possible that Conforto gets a LF-3 but the game company often wants to see players earn a grade over time. I think it’s 67% chance of a 4 and 33% chance of a 3.
As for the catchers. d’Arnaud was a 4(+1) in the present card set representing last year’s work. Do you feel he is significantly better a defensive player now compared to last year? If you and the people at the game company thinks he is comparable to 2014 then he’ll get the 4 again.
And do you feel that this year’s Plawecki is a better defender than last year’s d’Arnaud. If yes, perhaps he’ll get a 3 but if no then he’ll get the 4.
Yes, agree. The Mets pitchers are bad bunters.
The pitchers are indeed all bad bunters but almost all of them can field their position. Even Colon. Curious what each pitcher’s SOM score would be. Particularly deGrom whom some people have projected as a future Gold Glover.
I would agree that the starting pitchers are generally quite capable defensively. Colon surprised me as to how nimble he was coming off the mound and his good decision making. OTOH some of the relievers, most noticeably Familia, were not particularly good as fielders. There were a number of occasions when their failure to cover 1B cost the team plays at first or completions of double plays.
No way is Plawecki a -4 and dArnaud a -3; think you have that backwards
The actual defensive grades are now known. Here’s how they came out.
Plawecki c2(0)e1
d’Arnaud c3(0)e2
So you are correct that Plawecki is the better defensive catcher. Their arms are rated the same – average. And both have very low error numbers.