The Mets may currently be the best all-around team in baseball. The team’s young pitching is through the roof, despite a bad start from Jacob deGrom in his last outing, and the offense has clearly and drastically picked up since the trade deadline. In the last week alone, the Mets have scored a total of 59 runs and won five games. They currently sit atop the National League Eastern Division by 5.5 games, and the odds of the ballclub slowing down seem to be quite slim. But once the post season begins, everything the Mets have done during the regular season becomes somewhat of a moot point. The post season is a different animal from the regular season, and anything can happen once the first Wild Card Game commences. If the season were to end today, the National Lague’s post season would contain the Chicago Cubs, Pittsburgh Pirates, New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers, and St. Louis Cardinals. But which teams looks like it has the best chance to play in the World Series? Listed below is each team’s percentage of doing so.
Chicago Cubs: During the past offseason, the Cubs made a few changes in their roster and coaching staff, most notably adding Joe Maddon as their manager. Before the season began, many fans believed that although the Cubs were improved, they were still a year or two away from getting to the post season, let alone being relevant in September. The Cubs, however, have proven nearly everybody wrong so far this season, and currently hold the second Wild Card slot with a healthy lead over the San Francisco Giants. In the post season, the Cubs’ strength will likely be their abundance of young position players, most of whom have had great seasons to this point. However, having a majority young position players mean that it the pressure may easily get to their heads, which is something the Cubs would need to look out for.
Odds of Cubs making it to the World Series: 12%
Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers hold two of the best starting pitchers in the game in Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw, as well as one of the better offenses in the MLB. However, the Dodgers have been trending downward recently, and even Kershaw has said it may be time to press the panic button. One of the players the Dodgers have relied on so desperately, Joc Pederson, has been awful as of late, and Don Mattingly has decided to platoon him with Kike Hernandez in Center Field. If the team does not step it up soon, they may lose the division to the San Francisco Giants, or even the trending up Arizona Diamondbacks! And don’t even get me started on Clayton Kershaw in the post season! As you can probably tell, I am not buying the Dodgers at this point, and think the odds of them making it to the World Series are slim.
Odds of the Dodgers making it to the World Series: 12%
Pittsburgh Pirates: The Pirates have been extremely relevant in September the past few seasons, and have won a Wild Card slot each of the last two years. This season is looking like it is going to go the same way. The Pirates have been one of the better teams in baseball since the All Star Game. In fact, the Pirates are only 4.5 games behind the Cardinals in the National League Western Division, so there is still a very good chance of them winning their division instead of a Wild Card slot. In the post season, the Pirates main strength would be their experienced young players, many of whom are the reason they have been so good this season. While the ballclub has not gotten to the World Series since 1979, the odds this season may be in their favor.
Odds of the Pirates making it to the World Series: 20%
St. Louis Cardinals: The Cardinals hold the best record in baseball…so why wouldn’t they be in the World Series? Well, the answer to that is simple: that is not how the post season works. Take last year for example, the two teams in the World Series were Wild Card teams, and the winner of the World Series was tied for the worst record of teams in the post season. The Cardinals have been somewhat slumping as of late, and could lose their first place crown to the Pirates before the season is over. However, the Cardinals are a good post season team, so their percentage of getting to the World Series is not bad at all.
Odds of Cardinals making it to the World Series: 27%
New York Mets: As stated above, the Mets may as well be the best team in all of baseball right now. But will it last? There is no doubt the Mets will be successful this post season, and having David Wright back in the mix just makes their odds better. The Mets have a perfect mix of veterans and young stars, and everybody is pulling their weight right now. In a five or seven game series, there is no scarier look than the Mets starting rotation, and the offense is no picnic either. In case you are not convinced that the Mets are legit, just look at highlights from the Mets vs. Phillies game from Monday.
Odds of the Mets making it to the World Series: 29%
Are the Mets the best team in the National League right now? Probably not, but that does not mean they do not have what it takes to go to the World Series. Sometimes it just takes a hot streak, sometimes it just takes luck, and sometimes it just takes a roster of seasoned veterans mixed with young studs. The road to the Fall Classic will not be easy, but if the Mets can continue to play like they have since the Trade Deadline, they will no doubt be a large threat come October.
Where are these odds from? You or a different website?
If you knew where the odds came from, would that make it any more valid, Realist? If one digs too deeply into this hard science, he is certain to discover the chewy caramel center that lies beneath.
Odds? More like a collection of subjective opinions, which is fine of course, so long as everyone knows it.
Well, there are odds posted on websites like Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs, and they are based on math.
That’s funny, because last I checked: this isn’t Baseball Prospectus or Fangraphs. This is mets360.com. I don’t agre with everything written in this article, but who are you to judge? This is a blog. Not a top of its game news site. So until I see you writing here and writing cold hard facts and nothing else…there is no need for the types of comments you are making here.
I’m fine with a subjective opinion, just state it in the article. This does none of that.
Long range speculation. First off we have a 5 1/2 game lead with 6 remaining against the second place team and 37 games remaining overall. Making the playoffs is not a lock for us. Nor is it for the Dodgers with the Giants breathing down their necks. Secondly, the hottest teams at the end of the season, not necessarily the ones with the best records, perform the best in the playoffs. It’s too early to know that. Lastly, if we make the playoffs, we don’t know for sure if we’ll be playing the Dodgers or Giants or if we’ll have home field advantage. We also don’t know who on the Mets might be injured at the end of the season. Too many variables for me. Let’s make the playoffs for the first time in 9 years before we start making postseason plans.
Maybe it’s just me as a pessimistic New Yorker and lifelong Mets fan, but until we clinch the playoffs I’m not ready for these discussions.
It’s not just you, Matt. I’d like to get past the first Nats series and then take a look around.
Can a team make up one game a week? Obviously, yes.
The odds of that happening? It would just be a meaningless number.
+1
The flap over published odds is way overblown. Even Vegas odds are just based on bets placed and not performance. As a Mets fan since 1962, I do like our chances considering pitching in short a series. Definitely worth putting a dollar on our Mets in Vegas………….
The Mets are leading their division and must maintain their lead because they won’t make the playoffs otherwise. Their starting pitching and strong set up man and closer should hold off any losing streak. The 7th inning has been somewhat problematic but Verritt and Matz may be able to fill that role. I am confident that the Mets will win the division. Cespedes and Wright added in with their new bench of role players may allow them to squeak out wins against the other teams aces and have favorable pitching matchups later in the series. If it comes down to the central teams eliminating themselves then there is a strong chance to make it to the World Series.
We own a horrific record against the pirates and cubs…having been swept by both. We did marginally better against the Cards.
In the worst division in baseball, we own the lead. Our home road splits are mostly atrocious. Our record vs NL C is terrible and ok v NL W.
The Mets are not the best all around team in baseball. I doubt we are the best all around team in the NL E.
The odds are ridiculous because they change all the time. A look at baseball prospectus odds shows that if you dont like what they are presently, then come back tomorrow. Pretty much looks like the stock market
I like that the Mets are in first place. The Nats have the time to catch us. But we own the driver’s seat and self destiny with both the current lead and easier schedule. Im rooting to keep our nose clean and win series after series…which places more and more pressure on the Nats to sweep.
In their last 25 road games, the Mets are 16-9. While I would prefer to play at home, I don’t worry about the road record. I put a lot more stock in what they’re doing on the road now, rather than their 4-12 record on the road in June (and just as pitiful in April and May).
Look at our away record against the teams nearish 500 or better. Its not pretty. Beating the phillies and marlins and rockies on the road is not a measure of playoff competition. Its a lot more brutal record against good teams on teh road.
They’re 8-8 in last 16 road games versus LAD, SFG, STL, WSN, TB and BAL
Yeah, the odds are interesting and not sure if they’re just Dan’s opinion or based on numbers. But odds are odds are odds. The Mets’ playoff odds (according to FanGraphs) were 21.3% on July 26th. On August 26th? 80.2%
I like the optimism, though!
Odds change throughout the season as injuries and play are taking into consideration as Rob mentions above. Therefore they are useless. They are an attempt to stay one step ahead of reality. I’d rather just watch the game and see how it turns out.