As the Mets head into the final month of play, looking down at the Nationals by 6.5 games, the team has to start thinking strategically about which players will make the playoff roster. Obviously any Mets fan that lived through 2007-2008 will be wary of setting anything in stone, but at this point the only familiarity between 2007 and 2015 is David Wright. In any event, the most important factor of an October roster in recent years has been the bullpen. We watched the Giants win three titles because of three lethal bullpens, the Cardinals rode a stellar bullpen behind Chris Carpenter in 2011 and the 2014 Royals rose to stardom because of its relentless bullpen. The Mets bullpen has been subject to intense scrutiny over the past few weeks, mainly due to the implosions of Bobby Parnell and Eric O’Flaherty. However, things may be starting to look up with the roster expansion and the addition of Addison Reed. So, in any event, which members of the Mets 40-man roster deserve to be in a bullpen that has pitched the third fewest innings while producing the seventh-best ERA?
Locked and Loaded:
Jeurys Familia:
There is nothing to see here. Familia has taken the closer’s job away from a cheater, and has developed a reputation for locking games down- no matter the situation. Familia’s new split-finger has coined him the title “The Nastiest Pitcher in the World.”
Tyler Clippard:
Clippard has been an absolute savior for this bullpen, allowing only one earned run since his arrival. He has escaped jams that at certai points would seem inescapable, struck out all-stars with 3-2 breaking balls, and has solidified the eighth inning for this team. He’s a lock.
Will likely make the cut, but it will depend on September performance:
Hansel Robles:
Collins has given Robles every chance to lock down the seventh inning, as he should. Unfortunately, Robles has not lived up to the role of a set-up man since joining the Major League team. This is too bad because his rising fastball-changeup combination is lethal at times and could be a great bridge to Clippard and Familia. My guess is that Robles will get limited high-pressure roles in September and, if he succeeds, will then be placed on the roster as middle-relief.
Addison Reed:
Well, the Mets have seen nothing from Reed in orange and blue quite yet, but his career 1.69 ERA in the seventh inning could be a good indicator for things to come. Since his return from the minor leagues, Reed has posted a 1.65 ERA in 16.1 innings with much of his work coming in the seventh and eighth innings. If Reed provides a dominant bridge to Clippard, he will make the roster; if not, well his fate is on the 40-man.
Sean Gilmartin:
Many people gave Gilmartin an immense amount of scrutiny at the start of the season for even appearing on the roster. However, he has been everything that Collins, Sandy and Co. could have ever asked for. He has held righties to a .222 average while limiting lefties to a meager .214 clip. He has allowed only a single homerun to Chase Utley on April 14th, but virtually nothing since. The fear is that he might be gassed by October, but another Gilmartin-like month in September will assure his roster spot. After all, he’s hitting .400 at the plate this season!
The long-man debacle:
Carlos Torres
Torres has been a good soldier for the Mets since his arrival in 2013. Anyone who says otherwise has not watched his 159 appearances in the span of three seasons including ten starts. He has lost a bit of mojo this season, as Father Time has caught up with his arm, but he has still been quite productive on numerous occasions. As a side note, it’s hard to blame him for three runs against Boston considering he pitched earlier that day. His appearance on the roster will likely hinder his performance in September, but if Terry likes him he will appear in October for extra innings. Look, he won’t be here next year if you factor in the next two pitchers breathing down his neck, but he should not be forgotten for his rubber arm over the past three seasons.
Logan Verrett:
Before the meltdown against Boston, Verrett had been a darling among Mets fans after tossing a gem against the league’s best offense. Collins has been using him as a reliever mainly a one-inning guy, which kind of makes sense due to the lack of better options, but is not his true role. Verrett belongs in long-relief situations, with the occasional 2-3 inning hold. If he pitches to near perfection down the stretch then he might have a shot of making it, otherwise his chances seem slim until 2016.
Erik Goeddel:
Before going down with an elbow injury, Goeddel was solidifying the bullpen with his sparkling 1.96 ERA. Unfortunately, he might not have enough time to prove himself for the playoffs. My guess is that after two and a half months on the shelf, Goeddel will be a bit rusty when he returns. He has much of the same traits as Verrett, because he was a starter in the minor leagues, so his role should be much similar. If he pitches to perfection he might make it, but his chances are slim.
Most likely will not make the roster:
Bobby Parnell:
The former shining star of the atrocity that was the Mets bullpen (2011-2013) is now the weak link in a strong one. Parnell returned to cheers from Mets fans back in June when he faced the Blue Jays, but he left to boos after his terrible appearance against the Pirates a few weeks ago. It seems unlikely that he will re-find his groove this season and the Mets can’t afford bullpen struggles in October. Parnell should be remembered for his great days as a Met, because September will likely be his final month on the team.
Eric O’Flaherty:
The only thing that comes to mind when thinking about this guy is “ugh.” He had an ERA over 10 coming in and he has somehow gotten even worse. There is no way for him to be trusted in regular season games not to mention the most important games of the year.
Starting pitcher decisions:
Noah Syndergaard:
Heading into the second half, Syndergaard was consistently mentioned as a candidate for the Rookie of the Year and he performed like it for a bit. Unfortunately, he has hit a wall over his last five starts with a 5.53 ERA. This brings into question as to whether or not Syndergaard has hit a wall in terms of his performance. In addition, people point this out as a possibility for a trip to the bullpen. Collins has denied the possibility of this occurrence and that’s probably for the best. If anything, the Mets should just skip a start or two of his to let him rest for the playoff run.
Steven Matz:
Matz is an interesting case, because while has showed nothing but dominance in his first two starts at the big league level, he would be a weapon from the left side in the bullpen. Collins has also denied that Matz will pitch in bullpen, which is quite disappointing. We will see how Matz handles his return to rotation after a two-month leave, because after all he won’t hit any innings limits.
Bartolo Colon:
While the young guns have been denied of bullpen work, Colon has actually gotten some bullpen work recently. Only days after pitching a scoreless inning against Boston, he twirled his best start as a Metropolitan with eight shutout innings. Collins has not denied the use of his 42-year old in the bullpen during the playoffs. This could actually be quite a nice boost to the bullpen, as he could fill a Tim Lincecum-type roll as a long-relief ace.
Well, it’s September and no Mets fans have woken up from their slumber. Want to know why? There is no slumber – this is actually happening! The last decade has been a consistent role change, as a team on the rise overtakes a team that failed to take advantage of their talent; first the Mets overtook the Braves (remember, only one World Series), then the Phillies overtook the Mets, the Nationals overtook the Phillies (the Phillies should have won 2-3 titles, they were that talented), and now the Mets are going to overtake the Nationals to hopefully end the streak of postseason underperformance. If Collins can finally figure out how to properly construct and operate a bullpen, this team’s starting staff and newly dangerous offense can travel far. Let’s Go Mets!
John Harper:
For all the Parnell talk, Niese a much bigger concern for Mets: 18 runs in last 16 1/3 innings over 3 starts. Next start: Mon. vs. Nats.
If he struggles even further, he should be placed in the bullpen alongside Clon and some of the others. That being said, Niese has gone through struggles before, and has made it out with some of the best pitching in his career.
My Saturday morning article is planning to discuss the Mets’ possible starting rotation in round one of the playoffs. My thought is that what the bullpen needs is Stephen Matz. This would fortify it in multiple ways. He has dominating stuff and easily could give the team three or more innings if a starter has to exit early.
It could be risky moving a young starter to the pen but I have visions of the boost that Sid Fernandez gave his team when he, a full time rotation starter, went to the pen in the 1986 playoffs.
Well Larry, I have spent the last few weeks saying the exact same thing in various threads here. Dangerous shut down guy, could be a swing man, also a spot starter. But Collins made it clear, due to his past arm injuries he needs a different warm up that is not suited to relieving.
However, I have to tell you, before solving the bull pen, I want to see the 4 starters. I have no faith in Colon or Niese, and quite frankly, Syndergaard. Given these concerns, who do we carry as the starting 4? We have Harvey and deGrom. Suppose Matz gives us three 7 IP, 2 ER, 8K, 1BB type outings…would it make sense to start him? We cant have Niese and Colon (or Noah) throwing up 5 IP, 6 ER, 10 hits against the Grienke and expect us to hit our way back. Noah simply cannot be given the ball on the road. What f the rest of Sept Colon is back to what weve gotten last couple outings?
So, if Matz is the Matz we expect (I get it, he may not be), I put him in the rotation: Harvey, deGrom, Matz, Colon or Syndergaard. This would put Niese as a lefty reliever or not in the post season. Colon or Synd goes to pen depending who’s pitching best.
Our best hope to win in the playoffs is starting pitching. I want to bring the hottest starters we can.
We will simply have to watch over the course of the next 3 weeks, take in that information, and go from there. Too soon to say. I had Matz as a RP in the postseason but, well, things change.
BTW, Verrett clobbered last night in Vegas.
For this team to go anywhere, to do anything, they need Harvey & deGrom to be great. Not good. Not very good. But great. Familia, too.
And Clippard. And a third starter.
spot on. September is an audition. Harvey and deGrom are the only sure things to start and Familia and Clippard are the only sure things in the pen.
One thing I’m certain of. If we make the post-season, Collins will not be the one deciding on the rotation.
I have assumed that Steven Matz would find a place in the post season bullpen; now, I believe the decision is largely up to Jonathan Niece. I wouldn’t discount the possibility of the Mets slotting Matz into the rotation. Terry would like a new contract, and anyway why wouldn’t you go with the kid with the stuff, who has shown so much in high pressure situations in the minors?
I don’t agree that that last clause contains a contradiction in terms, by the way.
I didn’t view it as a contradiction as much as an unsubstantiated claim.
Unsubstantiated? Let’s fix that.
Steven Matz was promoted to Binghamton at the tail end of the 2014 season. He got into 2 games during the regular season; but he was the pitcher that was called upon to pitch the clinching game of the Eastern League playoffs, World Series, whatever they call it.
His line in that game: 7.1 innings pitched, 2 hits allowed, one run (earned) no walks, eleven strikeouts.
Was that a high pressure situation for a guy brand new to a higher level? I say hell yes. And I would say he did rather well. I further believe he would handle a major league playoff start just fine.
A minor league playoff game is nowhere near the atmosphere of a major league playoff game. The one you’re referring to had fewer than 6,000 people in the stands. I’m sure the team (and those 5,900 fans in attendance) wanted to win. But I don’t think that equals the pressure of 40,000 people that will be in an MLB playoff game with national TV coverage.
That said, I think Matz will be fine. If he pitches well in September, I want him starting games in October. When the Mets start valuing “talent” over “experience” — that will be a good day.
There are two things that appear certain about the bullpen: Familia and Clippard in with Parnell and O’flaherty out.
Reed’s inaugaural appearence was clean and I hope he proves to be that 7th inning man.
Torres should get the nod because of his work the last three years and the fact his FIP of 3.58 is almost one run below his ERA. He earned the roster spot and as a veteran should not be cast aside.
It has been stated by the front office that due to prior health issues, Matz will not be relegated to the bullpen. If he has a strong September then he should take the 4th starting spot behind Harvey, deGrom and Synergaard. Otherwise, with Niese having issues and Colon having a resurgence, I would wait to see how the month plays out. In any case, Niese and Colon are on the playoff roster because with off days, it is conceivable that Familia, Clippard and Reed could pitch everday in the playoffs and Colon or Niese could give quality innings in a tie game after those three are used.
The playoff roster should therefore consist of 11 pitchers, 4 starters, 3 late inning relievers and 4 multiple inning pitchers. So if Matz is a starter then it is between Robles, Goedell or Gilmartin. If Matz is not a starter then it is two of them.The one who pitches the best in September should get the nod. Reed’s success is the lynchpin to a successful playoff bullpen.