They did it! It’s finally done. After years of waiting for the Mets to return to the playoffs, the team in Queens has finally delivered. But we are Mets fans and we can’t enjoy the clinch for more than a few seconds. We Mets fans must know where the playoff roster stands. From Kelly Johnson to Juan Uribe to Eric Young Jr., there have been debates on who should be on the final 25. However, the most polarizing figures in that locker room have been Jonathan Niese and Bartolo Colon. It remains obvious that neither Niese nor Colon will crack the rotation, but do either deserve a spot on the roster?
Let’s begin with the longest tenured Mets starting pitcher: Niese. This crafty lefty has been through it all from a disappointing September spot-starter in 2008 to an injury-plagued 2009, and then five years of watching his fellow rotation interchange around him. We all know the scouting report on Niese: a soft-tossing lefty that can never seem to avoid the “big inning,” but when he does he can be a top-15 left-handed starter.
This season has been the tale of two completely different starters. From his first start until his sixth, he produced a 1.95 ERA. During a stretch in late May, he started four games and allowed 20 earned runs over 20 innings. Then Niese went on a run from June 5 until August 15 where he produced a 2.88 ERA over 84.1 innings. He then proceeded to pitch in Colorado and lose his footing over his next four starts with a 10.53 ERA in 19.2 innings. Niese has since started two games against Atlanta and has pitched well. However, it remains likely that his September 21 start will be his last in a Mets uniform.
Terry Collins recently informed the media that Steven Matz (Niese’s successor) will be the fourth starter for the playoffs which was expected. What was not expected is the report that Niese actually approached Collins about a potential move to the bullpen for the playoffs. Now, the question remains does he deserve this? Well, it seems a little premature to judge him before he gets a few outings within the next week, but I’m going to do so anyway.
To start, Niese has experienced only one relief outing in his major league career in which he faced two lefties (Mike Fontenot and Nate Schierholtz) and allowed hits for both. This is not looking good so far. However, this was years ago and Niese was simply younger then, right? Unfortunately, Niese has not exactly shut down lefties throughout his career. Here are some of the batting averages Niese has held lefties to ever since Niese was handed a starting job:
2015: .285
2014: .254
2013: .239
2012: .243
2011: .259
2010: .266
Niese does not have a brilliant track record when it comes to retiring lefties, which would the main job he would likely take on.
This leads to my next point which is the men he would replace if he took a roster spot. One of the snubs no one would mind would be Eric O’Flaherty. This guy has been an absolute disaster since he arrived in Queens enabling lefties to hit .278 off him. No problems here. Dario Alvarez is apparently still rehabbing from his injury, so there would not be much of an issue there. The main snub would be Sean Gilmartin – Collins’ favorite LOOGY. Here’s the caveat: he doesn’t really retire lefties that well. Gilmartin has held lefties to a .272 average while simultaneously limiting righties to an impressive .214 average. So it seems that another guy who can retire righties would not be helpful for the playoffs, but he deserves a spot on the Opening Day roster next year.
In the end, Niese might actually be the best man for the job if he can succeed against lefties this week. The main factor will be the potential increase in velocity. Niese could benefit from coming out of the bullpen. He could work for a single-out type job or be the long man if another 18-inning showdown occurs similar to the Giants v. Nationals last season. Niese has been here too long to not get the opportunity for a postseason appearance. Still, it would have been nice to have Jerry Blevins right now.
Now on to the “most exciting at-bat in baseball” as Gary Cohen calls it. The man, the myth, the legend: Bartolo Colon. He has pitched for the offensive juggernaut Indians back the 90’s, the Anaheim Angels, and now the breakout Mets. He was originally signed to fill the void that Matt Harvey left after injuring his right elbow, but has transformed into much more. He has become a stabilizer in the clubhouse and a rock in the rotation. The only problem has been his consistency.
Colon began the season with a 5-1 record and a sparkling 2.90 ERA. Then from May 10 until August 21, he posted an ugly ERA of 5.68. Since then, Colon has been the best pitcher on the Mets with a 1.65 ERA over six starts and a scoreless inning in a relief outing.
Speaking of his relief outing, Colon does not have much experience in the bullpen. His relief outing against Boston was his first since April of 2011 and only the seventh of his career. In his trio of relief outings with the Yankees, Colon was used as a long reliever and had success. After shaking off the rust of a lost season, he pitched quite well. (I’m not going to analyze his relief outings from over 15 years ago.) Colon would seem that he is still able to go 3+ innings of scoreless relief in case of extra innings or a disappointing start from the young guns.
If in fact he can pitch out of the bullpen, then there will be players that must be removed. The main pitcher that will not get the nod is Logan Verrett. The young 25-year old has been virtually untouchable since coming back to the Mets. In his spot-starts, he has proved that he could be 5th starter in 2016, but his relief outings have been mixed. When he first arrived in June, he allowed one run in his 12.1 innings. However, when he came back he has pitched in three relief outings. Two were scoreless efforts and the other he blew a lead. Verrett has shown that he has been able to handle extended relief outings which could be beneficial. (It can also be assumed that Carlos Torres is out for the playoffs.)
Colon has been a good soldier for the Mets over the past two seasons, but he simply does not have the track record to support this job. In addition, unlike Niese, there are better options, so it seems likely that Collins will give Colon the nod, which will be a mistake. This is especially relevant with Erik Goeddel and Verrett presenting younger, sharper options for relief.
They both will, and absolutely should, be on the playoff roster.
Familia, Clippard, Reed, Robles, Gilmartin, Goeddel, Niese and Colon. That’s with a 4-man rotation, and assuming Uribe can’t play.
I would lean toward Torres if he can prove he’s healthy. He’s got experience and, I think, the rest probably did him good.
Niese trumps Gilmartin in my book — and it’s an easy decision to make. Gilmartin has really only succeeded as a long man.
I like Goeddel, but only 31 IP is a bit of an issue. He hasn’t had to get many big outs in his lifetime. If the Mets go 12 in the BP, he’d be my 12th guy. I’d personally go with 11 in a 5-game series. Going into the NLCS, I’d think about the 12th.
If 13 position players, I’d go with Lagares over EY. Cuddyer possibly gets 4 starts in this series; Mets need to minimize his innings in the outfield. In addition, Lagares hits LHP & that’s what the Dodgers will be bringing. And further, Lagares is signed for 3 more years; EY is going bye-bye. A nice thing to have, but a luxury.
I do lean toward the guys who have put in the time, been in that clubhouse, pulled on the same oar all year — or years. I believe it matters to the players. I don’t cast those guys aside lightly. So when the talent is close, I do give those qualities an edge. Of course, I have no problem adding Reed and Clippard; when you are clearly superior, that trumps the value of Niese or Colon.
I agree on Lagares. I didn’t even consider EYJ for my postseason roster. I don’t think he’s a difference maker on this team.
Both should be on the playoff roster.
I don’t believe that Niese September 21st start was his last in a Met uniform. The Mets have a need for him in 2016 until Wheeler comes back and he is also under contract for $9m. Apparently he has diminished trade value so the Mets would be selling low if they look to trade him.
The Met starting pitching, which usually goes beyond 6 innings, along with a backend bullpen of Reed-Clippard-Familia, are the primary players. The playoff off days should not put any pitcher in an unaccustomed role. Therefore, Niese and Colon, should be pitching in an extra inning tie game. I would rather have Colon or Niese in a tie game before Gilmartin or Goedell.
The 11 man staff should also contain Robles and Torres (if he is healthy).
my thoughts exactly. I just want to add that if either O’Flaherty or Parnell is on the roster, I’m going to flip out.
Both Pitchers are, I’m afraid to add, effective options for an “early hook” outing by a starter. This team can rally offensively, if the Manager approaches these games with a short leash for the Starting Pitchers…. with a good option for several innings.
They will also need a couple of Stud 7/8/9 inning shutdown starts.
Absolutely. Harvey, deGrom, and Syndergaard need to take their first step towards ace-status with some dominant starts in the playoffs.
Agree Eraff. You have to have a long-man mentality sometimes to keep games close. But Terry likes to give his guys a long leash, so I don’t think it will matter for this team.
With these teams, it’s very easy to imagine a 2-2 tie in the 11th inning. That’s when you bring in Bartolo and let him roll.
He could end up being a key to the series before all is said and done.
With Matz being bumped twice now and in danger of not getting innings in before the DS, it’s clear Colon is in, and Matz may not even make the DS squad at all.
I think they are resting him as much as possible so that he can be the freshest pitcher in the entire post season.