This is being written before the first pitch has been thrown by Clayton Kershaw on Friday night. Were the Mets to win that game then the home field advantage swings back to them in a big way. By the time you read this the Mets could be up 1-0 in games or in a big hole – down 0-1 with a game facing Zack Grienke coming up. Ouch.
To get a sense of what Mets fans want it only takes reading blogs (especially Mets 360 of course), listening to sports talk radio (for as long as one can stomach Mike Francesa), and checking in on Twitter frequently.
The message that comes through clearly is that the fans wanted the team to try hard to ensure that if the series with the Dodgers went five games then game number five would be played at Citi Field.
The message sent by the team, meaning manager Terry Collins and GM Sandy Alderson, was that home field would be nice to have but we don’t plan to go out of our way to get it. The spinning the manager did in his press conferences was at odds with the lineups that he used during the final week of the season.
First let’s take a moment to see what the big to-do is all about. After all, is home field really an advantage? And, if so, how much of one.
Here’s a link to an interesting Fangraphs article from two years ago that discusses the subject: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-reds-the-pirates-and-adding-mike-trout/
If you are not interested in reading the full article then here is the salient paragraph from it:
So what’s the history of home-field advantage? This, too, is pretty simple. All-time, in the playoffs, the home team has won about 54% of games. Just since 1995, the home team has won about 54% of games. In the regular season, the home team has won about 54% of games. We’re getting a pattern. We’re going to stay simple and use that 54%. The Reds and the Pirates are pretty even teams, in record and in talent. We’re going to say that the home team in the one-game playoff would win about 54% of the time. So what’s at stake this weekend is a 54% chance of advancing to a real playoff round. Lose, and it’s more like 46%. It’s simultaneously a big and small difference.
This 54% figure rings true. Years ago I wrote a simulation. It basically had two identical teams “play” about 10,000 games at a neutral field just to see how many times the home team won just due to the effect of batting last. It came out as something like 54-55%. And that doesn’t even factor in things like teams being built to take advantage of their home parks. It doesn’t consider what effect a cheering supportive crowd might have. And it doesn’t consider how some players in particular play better at home than they do on the road. You might recognize this as an allusion to game 2 starter Noah Syndegaard who in his short major league career has shown himself to pitch better in Queens than elsewhere.
But did the Mets really punt home field? I submit that they did.
A look at some of the lineups manager Collins threw out there makes the case. Admittedly one of the AAA quality lineups even won a game but that is mostly a testament to how bad the Cincinnati Reds were and how good Jacob deGrom can be.
That was the September 27th game which featured Kelly Johnson playing shortstop. Yikes.
On October 1st the Mets offered this as a starting lineup while home field was still up for grabs.
Johnson
Ruben Tejada
Michael Conforto
Michael Cuddyer
Kirk Nieuwenhuis
Eric Campbell
Kevin Plawecki
Juan Lagares
Other than using Anthony Recker at catcher one wonders how a lineup could be any weaker. Needless to say this game was lost.
Game two of the doubleheader on October 3rd saw Cuddyer, Nieuwenheis, Dilson Herrera, and Kelly Johnson in there. That resulted in a 2-0 loss to Washington. You may remember it as the incredible no-hitter thrown by Max Scherzer. Scherzer was marvelous that night but it is certainly possible that a few more Mets regulars in that lineup might have resulted in at least a few hits.
The baffling thing about it is that Collins could have formulated representative lineups by just resting one or two regulars per game. Chances are this would have resulted in one or two more wins.
Plus wouldn’t ownership crave the extra income from a game 5 playoff game? If this series is over in three games then the Wilpons cash in on just one home game. With the home field advantage a long series could have given them three games, free moolah.
The late starting night games on the west coast has to have a negative effect on ratings here in the east.
It’s true that the game 5 weather in LA figures to be better than in NY but other than that it’s hard to find a reason why the Mets would not have aggressively tried to secure the home field advantage. And they didn’t.
I think that after the Cespedes broken hand scare, nothing really mattered as much as having as many players healthy as possible going into the playoffs.
I think the decision came down from Alderson not ownership.Let’s not worry about home field. Let’s just make sure the players are as healthy as possible for the playoffs. So that being said TC had very few options at that point. Unfortunate? Absolutely. But this team has overcome so many obstacles I’m just starting to wonder if the 2015 Met’s have karma oh their side.
I also did not like the preperation prior to the home field advantage being seized. There was no reason to be playing non playoff players. I would have preferred that everyone on the playoff roster got their reps and no player was pushed hard. It should have been more like an easing off the accelerator. I would have preferred the home field advantage.
I’m disappointed they didn’t get HFA.
But at this point, it’s “Just win, baby”
I completely agree. I have no issue with resting the regulars but not all at once with HFA on the line.
I’m sorry, but you guys are all wrong and completely misguided when it comes to this so called “advantage”. Here are the facts:
Let’s start with the basic one.
Since 1998, in the division series, the home team has won the series 33 times and lost it 35 times. That alone should dispel the notion that home field is an advantage, but i’ll delve a bit deeper.
If the series goes 5 games, the record for the home team in the 5th game is 7-14. No, you did not read that wrong. 7-14 in a sudden death 5th game. Home field disadvantage?
If the first 2 games end in a split, which happens about 1/2 of the time, the away team wins the series 60% of the time.
The only advantage that i could really find is that home sweeps occur more often than away sweeps. Overall, there is nothing to suggest that home field is and advantage when it comes to winning series and especially not during the pivotal 5th game, which is really what matters