Well look at us fellow Mets fans. While most major league players have packed up and headed home our team is still in the tournament with a chance to go the World Series.
Let’s look at what we’ve learned so far.
Murphy is money in more than ways than one
No one is a bigger fan of Gary Cohen than yours truly. But when he describes Daniel Murphy as a “net negative” I have to disagree and do so stridently. Now if Gary had said that Murphy is not “worth” a multi-year deal at $10 million or more per year (of course no one is really worth that in the real world but this is Major League Baseball we are talking about so everything is relative) that would be a defensible position.
My thinking before Thursday night’s game and during it was that we could be seeing the last game of Daniel Murphy’s New York Mets career. This was sobering as if a friend had said they would be moving to the west coast to take a new job and would be returning to the east only on rare occasions.
Simply put even though winning in baseball is always a team effort this team would not be proceeding to the Cubs series without the contribution of Daniel Thomas Murphy.
When other GM’s decide whether to make a bid on his services they will factor in his WAR (wins above a replacement player) and his UZR or defensive runs saved. They will appreciate the fact that he plays three positions but will factor in that he doesn’t play any of those positions particularly well.
But they now know something that none of us knew for sure a week ago. On the big stage with the brightest lights on him this man can perform at a high level. His .810 slugging percentage would be great during any five game stretch of games but Murphy did this when four of the five games were started by perennial Cy Young contenders Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke.
Those GM’s may know that Murphy is prone to base running blunders but what he did on Thursday to catch the Dodgers’ shifted infield napping was brilliant. That steal of third base could well go down in Mets lore as the greatest stolen base in franchise history.
It would not surprise me to see Murphy offered several million dollars more on his upcoming free agent contract than he would have been offered without his recent heroics.
Terry Collins sticks to his plan
What the manager reveals in his postgame press conferences can sometimes make one wonder whether all the marbles are present and accounted for. But after Thursday’s win he stated that he had settled on a plan: if the Mets had a small lead in the 8th inning then he planned to use his closer for a two inning save.
The Twitterverse strongly favored leaving the dominating Noah Syndegaard in the game for inning eight after he masterfully handled the Dodgers in the 7th. Had Collins left Thor in and assuming he once again put up a scoreless frame then when the pitcher’s spot in the lineup came around in the top of the 9th he could have comfortably used a pinch hitter. As you know in the actual situation Jeurys Familia ended up batting with two outs and a runner at second base. Of course, the pinch hitter for Syndegaard would have been Nieuwenheis or Cuddyer so it’s not all that likely that a better result would have been achieved than Familia’s strikeout.
Jacob deGrom is a true ace
I believe it was the comedian Jackie Mason who delivered this joke decades ago: “Sex – when it’s good it’s fantastic. When it’s bad – still good.”
We could say this about Jacob deGrom’s pitching. When he’s on he is untouchable and when he’s off as he was on Thursday he still can dig deep and keep his team in the game. That’s what an ace does.
Manager Collins said that there were four different times during Thursday’s game when deGrom was one batter away from being pulled. Each of those times he got the batter he absolutely had to get.
Let’s face it – it is anybody’s guess as to what Matt Harvey will give his team on Saturday night as the NL championship series commences. We can be more confident when deGrom next starts. He will either have it or will find a way if he does not.
First base is a mess
Lucas Duda is back in one of his long cold stretches. It is now not a question of whether to play him against lefty starters like Jon Lester but a question as to whether to play him at all.
The alternatives are not all that inviting too. The Uribe and Tejada injuries are complicating the situation.
Against the lefties you can stay with a slumping Duda or move to the major disappointment Michael Cuddyer.
Against the righties you can stick with Duda and perhaps drop him to 7th in the batting order while elevating the hotter Michael Conforto to 5th.
An alternative would be sit Duda in favor of Kelly Johnson. If the team opts to do that then they would be better off defensively with Murphy sliding over to first base and using KJ at second.
Playing with house money
No matter what you set as a team goal at the beginning of the season you have to say that the team has now achieved beyond reasonable expectations.
For some fans just being over .500 and playing meaningful September games was enough. For other more demanding fans they set the goal at reaching the Wild Card game. The most audacious fans thought the team could win the NL East (how could they have known the Nationals were going to implode as they did?)
But here’s what it is. Win four games before the Cubs do and the New York Mets go to the World Series. Oh baby.
Murphy hit two great pitchers and every GM saw it. His free agent money has increased and I am happy for him.
Collins made all the right moves and deserves the credit for managing flawlessly.He does know his players.
I prefer Cuddyer over Duda in Game #1. Duda needs a break and Cuddyer should not be buried for his LCDS game #1. It took a 25 man effort to get this far and that thinking should not be abandoned. I like the philosophy of “if you hit you play”. Lagares has hit himself back into the line up so I am all for giving Cuddyer another chance at 1B tonight.
We are playing with house money or actually David Wright’s insurance money. It proves that the Mets came into the season underbudgeted. Now that the Wilpon’s are making big time playoff money and at least $30m is coming off the books, then I hope the Mets properly budget the 2016 payroll (and still leave money for trade deadline tweaking).
Larry, very astute observations in your article. Nice job.
Thanks for the comment Metsense.
I agree that Duda should not get the start against Lester. Wish Juan Uribe was around. You could play him at 2B and Murphy at 1B and probably would get more offense than Cuddyer will provide.
I just noticed that Addison Russell is out possibly for the series with a hamstring pull. So they don’t have their best shortstop going and, of course, we don’t have our only real shortstop going.
I think Colon may get a start (game 4?). If he’s good then the Met’s are in even better shape. If not yank him early and bring Niese in. I’m not so sure about starting Matz in Wrigley Field. The offense will come around. After Arrieta and Lester the Cubs don’t have anyone who can overwhelm the Met’s. The season sweep by the Cubs is meaningless. This is a real major league line up that TC has now. I just hope he doesn’t get out-managed by Maddon. Met’s in 7
Great article, Larry. I like how you related the likely departure of Murph to losing a good friend to a move. Exactly my thoughts. Sitting Duda makes a lot of sense, except we have seen that when he bursts out of a slump, he’s really on fire. I do not recall if on his previous break-outs if there was any leading indicator.
Collins has been subject to a lot of criticism and he’s playing a hot hand with his hunches and decisions. If he decides to start Duda, I’m all in. If it were up to me though, I’d probably sit him until Game 3. Cuddyer at 1st tonight and then Murphy at first against Arrieta with KJ at second. Yes, the injuries to Tejada and Uribe are unfortunate. But the Cubs are without Russell and that is going to hurtt them too.
Game 2: Wright needs to sit, horrible matchup with Arrieta. Murphy to 3B, Johnson at 2B.
Gary Cohen had the right to say what he said about Murphy, but he is an announcer for the team. Harsh words to say during the team you work for going on a run about their star player. But Daniel will talk to Jesus and forgive him. He will come back and Justin Turner us with the Yankees. lol