Since the Qualifying Offer system was developed not a single player has opted to accept the one year deal and stay with his team. Rather every player offered it has left, usually for a multiyear deal elsewhere.
This has usually, but not always, worked in the player’s long term favor. One notable exception was when the Texas Rangers offered slugging outfielder Nelson Cruz the qualifying offer – at that time $14.1 million. When no better offers came along he ended up signing with the Orioles for one year, $8 million. That was a $6 million “oops”.
MLB Trade Rumors recently posted a concise article on how the qualifying offer system works. If you are interested it can be found right here.
Before the magical playoff run started for Mets’ infielder Daniel Murphy it was assumed that the team had no interest in bringing him back for 2016 and certainly would not give him the Qualifying Offer (QO) which this year is $15.8 million. This made sense to the extent that they probably saw him as an $8 to $10 million ballplayer who could be replaced by solid prospect Dilson Herrera. Herrera might not provide the same offense as Murphy but his defense would be better and his salary would be minimal, $510,000. The saved cash could be put elsewhere for free agents and necessary raises.
But in the first two rounds of the playoffs Murphy became, to use Curtis Granderson’s words, Babe Ruth. And for a short term Babe Ruth the Mets seemed to have changed direction and now look like they will offer Murph the QO. Likely they expect him to decline it and in so doing the team figures to collect a free supplemental first round draft pick in the June 2016 draft. These are always good to have but especially so when the team has just moved a decent amount of minor league talent in bringing aboard Kelly Johnson, Juan Uribe, Tyler Clippard, and the stud Yoenis Cespedes.
My opinion is that Murphy went into the playoffs as a player who might be offered a two year deal for $20 to $22 million and will come out of the playoffs looking at something like a three year $42 million offer. If that three year deal comes from a team that he and Mrs. Murphy are interested in then he likely takes it.
But he definitely could break some new ground here. Should he accept the QO he gets to stay with the only organization he has ever been with, among friends he has made on the team, in a city that sees him as one of the faces of the franchise. Also he would be making a salary far greater than he could have ever dreamed of for just one year.
Some players, an example being our own (sigh) Michael Cuddyer, decline the QO in order to play on contending teams. Murphy is already on the National League champs and on a team that figures to contend for the next few years.
One other thing that makes me feel like Murphy could just buck tradition and accept the QO is batting coach Kevin Long. From the moment Long was hired Murphy has praised his work, his approach, and his communication skills. We have seen Murphy’s power improve throughout the season. We have seen Curtis Granderson go from a disappointment in 2014 under Dave Hudgens to return to stardom reunited with coach Long.
I’ve often wondered whether Robinson Cano’s apparent loss of power as he went from the Yankees to the Mariners was in part due to his loss of Kevin Long as batting instructor. Of course, the dimensions of the Seattle ballpark and the Bronx bandbox are vastly different. But perhaps there was a coaching element in there too.
So while we could make the odds at 80% that Murphy moves on that makes it 20% that he will stay with the Mets for at least one more year.
I can see Murphy signing with the Angels playing second base. Sandwich him between Trout and Pujols and you have 3 solid hitters. Murph could also play third on occasion and DH as well. Three years at 14 million per year would not be unreasonable. If I’m Murphy I pass on the QO. The Met’s can still use upgrades at SS and CF (Cespedes?). Apply the savings there and thank Murphy for his play and professionalism.
I think you need look no further than different ballpark plus advancing age to explain the power drop for Robinson Cano.
Murphy might be the guy who actually chooses where he wants to play instead of holding out for the last dollar. I believe that place could be New York for another one or two years, if he accepts the Mets’ plans for him, which I’m guessing would include him being the backup plan for if/when David Wright goes down. If I was him, I’d stick with the qualifying offer, since he would still be young enough to attract a multiyear deal in 2016.
If the Mets want Daniel Murphy, they have to offer fair market value. No way he rejects this opportunity at free agency, at his age, riding this high, to accept an insulting two-year deal with the Mets. He has a wife and children and personal pride. If the Mets want him, they have to go four years and put real money on the table. Anything else is just blather.
I think that Daniel Murphy is a very consistent offensive player. The Mets will probably offer him a qualifying offer. The qualifying offer will hurt Murphy’s negotiating power. He could get 3 / 42 without the offer but attaching a draft pick should lower his salary to 3 / 30-36. Marginal players have not done well when they qualifying offer has been attached to them Murphy knows how consistent he is and has faith in his abilities. He also likes being on a winner. I think he takes the qualifying offer knowing that he will get the same deal next year of at least 3/42. If he accept the qualifying offer then Herrera gets pushed back which is no big deal to the Mets.
I hope in the next CBA they come up with a better system than the QO.
The old team should be compensated for losing a guy but the QO ends up hurting guys like Murphy more so than helping his old team.
It will be interesting to see how it plays out. A healthy Wright and the Mets don’t make the offer. Now, I can see them doing it and I can also see Murphy taking it. But I wouldn’t want to wager on one particular outcome at this point. Whether he stays or goes, I hope Murphy is with a team that appreciates what he brings, even if part of the package are the boneheads plays.
I don’t see Cespedes coming back. Without him AND Murph, the lineup is too weak. I know Herrera hit .340 in Vegas, but so did Eric Campbell.
Unfortunately Cespedes is too much in love with himself and doesn’t even try to make any adjustments for any of his teams. When he’s hot, he’s awesome. But those other nights…He refuses to take a walk. He thinks he’s going to hit the game winning home run every at-bat. Eventually other teams notice and realize you don’t need to throw strikes to get him out. He gets himself out. The Met’s have an abundance of SP’s for next season with Wheeler coming back as well. Niese is expendable. Dump Cuddyer and you’ll have over 43 million (adding Colon & Murphy’s $) to play with. More than enough to use for any upgrade Alderson chooses to make.
Offer Murph the QO and if on the outside chance he becomes the first player to accept it, slot him in as the 1B for 2016 and trade Duda. Team D must improve for 2016.
Slow news day. He’s not accepting it. Friends on the team means nothing. It’s a business. He’d be foolish not to explore his options. It’s possible a Nelson Cruz like situation comes about. However he isn’t accepting. Zero chance. He’s gonna explore his options. Plus a 1-year deal is risky. Down year/injury. There’s zero chance he accepts.