Last offseason, Washington Nationals were my team and it was a ton of fun. Plus, it helped my self-esteem to know that the changes I made might have won the division (considering the moves Mike Rizzo made did not win an NL East title). This time the Atlanta Braves were the team to simulate and it was an interesting week. My projected budget was 114 million with an eye on salary relief in 2017.
To begin, the 2016 Atlanta Braves are in a complete overhaul/rebuild, which is radically different from the 2015 Washington Nationals. This fact led me to make some tough decisions about who was untouchable and who could be traded. Immediately off the table were Freddie Freeman and Andrelton Simmons, with Shelby Miller as my primary trade chip mainly because I wasn’t thrilled with his ERA of 4.00 over his final 18 starts.
The problem was that zero people emailed me with trade inquiries, which probably had to do with the fact that the Braves are not loaded with talent at the moment. The first and only trade that I conducted was with the Rangers. After a few emails, I was faced with the reality of ridding myself of Shelby Miller- which was fine with me.
Here’s the trade:
Rangers acquire: Hector Olivera, Shelby Miller, Jace Peterson, and 2 million.
Braves acquire: Derek Holland and Delino DeShields.
Many will say that this trade is quite idiotic on my part, but here is my reasoning. Holland, at one point, was a guaranteed 27+ starts a season with solid numbers across the board. He might be due a pricy 10 million this season, but he has a 1.5 million buyout for 2017 or an 11 million team option. Miller has been an absolute rollercoaster over the past three seasons and is due for a big pay raise.
In addition, Jace Peterson was an absolute train wreck in his rookie season and needed to be traded away. DeShields is a young speedster that can play in the outfield as well as second base. He might be able to learn a thing or two from former burner Michael Bourn.
Olivera is due over 20 million over the next five years, so two million was a small price to pay.
After some dead-end conversations with the Mariners, I was pretty much set on the trade market.
My rotation was in a strange place after acquiring Holland. The Braves have a ton of B-level pitching prospects that have ceilings of number two starters. Here’s my projected rotation:
1. Julio Tehran
2. Derek Holland
3. Mike Minor
4. Manny Benuelos
5. Tyrell Jenkins
This rotation might get torched in 2016 or it might be a train that runs over every hitter. Obviously the front three had to take rotation spots, considering they are proven veterans who can get outs in the sixth/seventh inning. The last two might come as a surprise to some.
Benuelos was a prized possession in the Yankee organization for more than half a decade. At this point, if I’m going to punt the season, I may as well test out some former top prospects.
Tyrell Jenkins may be a head scratcher for some, but not to me. Ever since he was drafted by St. Louis back in 2010 I’ve been casually following his performance. After a successful showing in 2015, he deserves a chance in a big league rotation. He is one of my favorite prospects to feature a fastball-curveball combination. Watch out NL East, he could be a sleep pick for a future ace.
The bullpen was a completely different animal, as Atlanta traded away many of their pieces at the deadline. The free-agent market was an absolute savior for me to keep the team in a reasonable position.
Closer: Arodys Vizcaino
Set-up: Bobby Parnell (signed for 900K)
Set-up: Antonio Bastardo (signed for 2.2 million)
Middle Relief: Mike Foltynewicz
Middle Relief: Williams Perez
Middle Relief: Ryan Weber
Long Relief: Matt Wisler
The bullpen is formatted under the new approach: put all of the burned-out starters in the pen in order to put their gas to good use. Foltynewicz, Perez, Weber, and Wisler are all put in the bullpen because they were less than impressive last season in the rotation. If they are successful in multiple-inning relief during the season, and a member of the rotation struggles, they will be given the opportunity to start baseball games.
Now on to the offense which can be a disaster or a league-average unit. The major question mark was to decide which veterans with hefty contracts should start everyday. Ultimately logic was the deciding factor.
Here’s my projected lineup:
1. 2B: Delino DeShields
2. RF: Nick Markakis
3. CF: Cameron Maybin
4. 1B: Freddie Freeman
5. LF: Nick Swisher
6. 3B: David Freese (signed for 6 million)
7. SS: Andrelton Simmons
8. C: Chrisian Bethancourt
Here’s the bench:
Backup Catcher: Giovanni Soto (signed for 1 million)
Backup Outfielder: Michael Bourn
Backup Outfielder: Nolan Reimold (signed for 750K
Backup Infielder: Adonis Garcia
Utility Man: Daniel Castro
The biggest signing I made in the simulated offseason was Freese for 6 million. He’s not the best player to acquire, but he is a league-average player that can provide a stopgap option before someone else comes along, plus Bethancourt needs to figure his bat out before another player takes his spot. Soto and Reimold are nice veteran bats off the bench to ease the pressure.
Again, this isn’t the best lineup in the National League, but it doesn’t have to be. This is a season of testing which players are legitimate or not.
Overall, it was a fun experience. The Atlanta Braves were an interesting team to run for a week because of their different approach to their future. However, they were also tough to run because of their clear reliance on the 2016 and 2017 drafts. I don’t see my team winning more than 75 wins, but that’s okay.
| Atlanta Braves | 2016 Salary | Position |
|---|---|---|
| Freddie Freeman | 12 | Starting 1B |
| Andrelton Simmons | 6 | Starting SS |
| Cameron Maybin | 8 | Starting CF |
| Nick Markakis | 11 | Starting RF |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.6 | Starting C |
| Nick Swisher | 15 | Starting LF |
| David Freese | 6 million | Starting 3B |
| Delino DeShields | 0.6 | Starting 2B |
| Michael Bourn | 14 | Backup CF |
| Daniel Castro | 0.6 | Utility |
| Adonis Garcia | 4 | Backup IF |
| Giovanni Soto | 1 | Backup Catcher |
| Nolan Reimold | 0.75 | Backup OF |
| Arodys Vizcaino | 0.6 | Closer |
| Bobby Parnell | 1.1 | Set-up |
| Mike Foltynewicz | 0.6 | Set-up |
| Antonio Bastardo | 2.2 | LOOGY |
| Williams Perez | 0.6 | Middle Relief |
| Ryan Weber | 0.6 | Middle Relief |
| Matt Wisler | 0.6 | Long Relief |
| Derek Holland | 10 | Starting Pitcher |
| Julio Tehran | 3.3 | Starting Pitcher #2 |
| Tyrell Jenkins | 0.6 | Starting Pitcher #3 |
| Manny Banuelos | 0.6 | Starting Pitcher #4 |
| Mike Minor | 1 | Starting Pitcher #5 |
| Payroll | 100.75 | |
| Budget | 114.5 million |
The good news is… you’re a Met fan and can’t be fired by the Braves.
I have so many beefs with this it’s ridiculous.
“In addition, Jace Peterson was an absolute train wreck in his rookie season and needed to be traded away.”
Not sure how a 1.1 WAR qualifies as an absolute train wreck.
“DeShields is a young speedster that can play in the outfield as well as second base”
1 career game at 2B. He was so awful at 2B in the minors they moved him to the OF.
“Olivera is due over 20 million over the next five years, so two million was a small price to pay.”
He’s actually due over 32 million.
Mike Minor at $1 million? No way. He earned 5.6 million last year alone.
I don’t know why Banuelos gets the OK to be in the rotation from you and not Foltynewicz. Foltynewicz was much better than Banuelos was last year.
This team you’ve put together wins maybe, maybe 65 games. It’s definitely going to be one of the worst in the entire league. That Holland trade is one of the worst I’ve ever seen. 3 legitimate players for crap on a stick and Deshields.
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Unlike practically every other team in this project, the Braves are not supposed to get better.
As I mentioned, Shelby Miller is not someone that I’d like to build around. An ERA of 4.00 over an 18 start stretch does not get my approval. Derek Holland, on the other hand, posted a 3.41 EA over his final 18 starts back in 2013. If healthy, I guarantee that Holland will put up better numbers than Miller in 2016.
Fangraphs might have him at a 1.1 WAR (and I have no problem with Saber metrics) but his .314 OBP and .335 SLG% does not equal success in my book- unless he is posting Andrelton Simmons type defense numbers.
Speaking of Simmons, DeShields’ defense abilities- or lack thereof- will be overshadowed by the vacuum cleaner we call Simmons. If not, then DeShields can replace Swisher in the outfield while defensive wizard Daniel Castro is plugged in at second base.
I’m not sure how you could choose a 5.68 ERA in 15 starts over a guy who only got a handful of opportunities. Foltynewicz had four quality starts all season (I’m aware that it’s not the best stat). I’m also aware that he struggled in the bullpen. However, he’s had his chance to try and prove something. Banuelos got his feet wet with a mere six starts. Hence, I give the nod to the former 13th ranked prospect (MLB.com). With Max Fried hoping to make an impact soon.
In addition, I mentioned that if anyone struggled someone would take his place.
In regards to Mike Minor, I made a mistake. It should say 4.48 million- per MLB trade rumors projection.
We shall see if Holland has a better 2016 than Miller but I’m giving the severe edge to Miller.
So… was your plan to make the Braves worse overall while also not improving the farm system?
I could see you trading for prospects and building for a future. Heck you could have probably traded Miller and Olivera for top-notch prospects I’d probably say you made a tough but good move. I’m trying to wrap my head around your rationales but I can’t seem to find the logic.
You can get better around the major league team. You got 0 prospects for a major league pitcher that’s cost controlled for 3+ years. Deshields cannot play 2B. You can’t just have a really good SS and say “oh it doesn’t matter who plays 2B.
Advanced minor league fielding stats don’t exist, but Deshields has a career .955 fielding percentage at 2B, which would be the worst this season with at least 300 IP.
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I think you’re overstating DeShields not being able to play 2B. The move to the OF was much more about the presence of All-Star Jose Altuve being entrenched at the position.
“Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow said: “It increases Delino’s value to be able to play multiple positions, especially having a Major Leaguer locked up for several years at the position he’s been playing,” he said. “He’s done a terrific job and his ability to play the middle infield is always going to be there and something of value. He may make it to the big leagues at a second baseman, but it helps his versatility and value have the opportunity to play the outfield.”
http://brianmctaggart.mlblogs.com/2013/08/27/deshields-moving-back-to-outfield/
I think you are understating how awful he is.
From baseball prospectus:
“Way too many mistakes on defense really makes me question whether he can stay at second base. On top of that, after those fundamental mistakes he’s been seen sulking back to the dugout and inside the dugout. At times he can look lethargic and simply not interested on defense, which can lead to those said mistakes.”
“The defense is too much of a question mark to overlook at this point and the negative marks on his makeup could end up lowering his ultimate ceiling as a player.”
Miller, Olivera, and Peterson plus cash for Derek Holland and Delino DeShields?
You are basically stating that Peterson is worth so little that we can just assume he’s worth nothing. You are also making the case for DeShields being worth a ton. I know DeShields has the pedigree and all but he is not a significantly more valuable player than Peterson. Peterson plays a more premium position and has a better minor league track record. Although DeShields hit better than Peterson overall, his defense was awful. Peterson is a very good defender, statistically one of the best defensive second basemen in the game. IMO it might come to be that DeShields is a more valuable player in his prime than Peterson, however in terms of their value right now, they are pretty close. In addition, since the Braves value defense more than most teams, I suspect that they would prefer to have Peterson over DeShields. That opinion is certainly debatable, but saying DeShields >>>>>>>>> Peterson is insane.
The team would never, under any circumstance, trade Shelby Miller for Derek Holland. His major league track record shows that he can be a solid back end of the rotation guy, when healthy. He has hardly pitched in the last two seasons and has over $20 million left on his contract. Shelby Miller has a far superior major league track record; he is much younger, much more durable, and much cheaper. Your assertion that the Braves would need to give up even more than Miller to get their hands on Holland, again, I have no idea how you came to that conclusion.
Perhaps, you are asserting that the Braves ought to get rid of Olivera in a salary dump; he is a dead weight a la Melvin Upton. That logic would help me understand WHY you came up with this idea, even though its horrible.
Let’s put this another way… Conservatively, I think the Braves expect Olivera to be at least a 2+ WAR player and hopefully more in the 3-4 range. Miller, based on his track record, a 3.5+ WAR player. Peterson, based on his track record, a 1.0+ WAR player. I think an aggressive estimate for Holland would be around 2 WAR. When he was healthy in 2015, he was bad, and he was absolutely shelled in his only playoff start. We can also hope for a significant improvement from DeShields and say he will produce 2 WAR, even though his defense is a severe limitation and he was only worth 1 WAR in 2015. Basically, you are saying that the Braves need to throw in some cash to make a wildly imbalanced trade work (~6.5 WAR for ~3 WAR). Mostly, they need to get rid of some integral players so that they can have another middling OF with bad defense and a back-end starter.
I don’t think you understand that the Braves essentially traded Jason Heyward ($200+ million player) for Shelby Miller… And Miller outperformed most people’s expectations in 2015. To trade him away for a dime-a-dozen expensive rotation filler doesn’t really add up
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Good article Julian! You did a great job with the Braves! I’m so proud of you and all you’ve done! Great job!