As another Hot Stove season dawns upon us, Mets fans go back to a familiar niche: talking about the future and complaining about management. In this specific installment, the topic of the immediate future is at hand. The near certain departure of Daniel Murphy will get mixed reactions from fans, some ranging from hate comments about his errors in the World Series to others discussing the departure of the teams “best hitter.” At the end of the day, the truth will lie somewhere in the middle, but it’s becoming more and more clear that the Mets must move on. After the dust settles, a former Pittsburgh farmhand will arrive. Dilson Herrera is his name and, boy, he has been a major tease through 49 career games. So is he up for the task of replacing possibly the second-best second baseman in team history? All signs point to “yes.”
An alarming knock on the young Colombian has been his lack of consistent at-bats in all four Major League stints. When first called up in September of 2014, Herrera showed flashes of brilliance with a trio of home runs and multiple hit games, but he also showed an uncharacteristic strikeout rate with a dearth of hits.
In his final game of 2014, he cranked a monster homerun in Atlanta and injured his hamstring while beating out an infield single. It was a shame to watch Herrera walk off the field after appearing to finally figure out Major League pitching. Nevertheless, he was able to post a .220/.303/.407 in a mere 66 plate appearances- which is not bad for a 20-year old.
2015 proved to be different narrative for the 21-year old as his assignment began on May 1st. Herrera didn’t do much to change the “unproven” tag on his forehead in 2015 as he posted a .677 OPS. However, there were a few moments in which Herrera demonstrated his ability to shine.
Unfortunately there’s no way around it, Herrera hasn’t shown the ability to thrive on the Major League level for more than a few days. That being said, his minor league numbers suggest that Herrera is ready to burst out of his shell. His low strikeout rate in the minors shows his ability to thrive at the top or bottom of a lineup, in addition to his gap-to-gap power that could help him become a premier table-setter in the majors. Furthermore, his numbers actually replace the ever-so-coveted Murphy in the two-hole.
Baseball-Reference expects him to produce a .734 OPS in 2015, while FanGraphs is a bit rough with a .710 OPS. If Herrera simply puts his talents together, don’t be surprised to see him producing Murphyesque numbers from the two-hole.
A la:
.280/.340/.410
13 home runs
65 R.B.I.
35 doubles
15 stolen bases
40:60 BB:K ratio
Beyond his similar production at the plate, it seems logical to believe that Herrera will be a major upgrade over Murphy in the field.
Murphy once again managed to put up embarrassing defensive totals, with a -6 Rdrs and -.4 dWAR in 2015, not to mention a -42 career Rdrs at second base.
Meanwhile, MLB.com rated Herrera’s fielding a 55 on a 20-80 scale back in 2014 in addition to a 50 arm. In his brief stint in 2014, Herrera was able to post a 1 Rdrs in limited playing time while posting a -2 Rdrs in 2015. Neither of those two statistics can prove much about his defense in the Majors, but it could show that he is capable of league average defense which is something that Murphy was not capable of doing.
Herrera does not have to earn a Gold Glove in 2016, or any year, to be a major defensive upgrade over the former holder of the position. If Herrera can simply provide an adequate glove, supplementing Wilmer Flores up the middle shouldn’t be a problem. It will also be the added bonus of not making us hold our breath when the ball is hit to right side.
The easiest way to justify that Herrera will be a better presence for this team is simply his age. Herrera will be 22 on Opening Day. Murphy will be 31 (maybe 30, depending on where he starts his season). This will simply give the youngster an advantage in the field, on the base paths, and in the eyes of the fans.
Murphy might be able to contribute deep into his 30’s, but his legs were starting to give out the past two seasons. If his legs suffer a major injury, that might be the end of his consistent production. If Herrera’s legs suffer a major injury, he will have the rest of his 20’s to figure it out. Plus, the team needs a younger and more athletic presence on the bases. For a team that was dead last in stolen bases, having a quick guy on the bases could benefit the hitters behind him. Simply put, the team needs to get a bit younger.
The final linchpin to Herrera’s readiness for the spotlight is Herrera himself. He’s goofy and has a New York smile. On June 14th during a rally against the Braves, he put Gatorade cups on his ears. The video is quite silly and shows a certain New York charm that we all crave.
Now this franchise has had polar reactions to characters. The 1986 Mets will go down as the craziest team to roam New York, but if Matt Harvey dares to say something against the status quo, it’s shut down immediately. This team glorifies Lucas Duda because of his lack of words yet has a surly man running the announcer booth (Keith Hernandez). One reason that Mets fans loved Daniel Murphy was because of his charm and unique personality. No matter how many countless errors he committed, he supplemented it with side ward hats and seemingly being the only one trying on the field.
If those cups on Herrera’s ears are any indication of the character he can be, we fans are in for a treat.
Losing a staple of the already impotent lineup might be a tough pill for some to swallow, but sometimes saying goodbye is the only way to look forward. The Mets let go of Jose Reyes, and that was a wise decision. The Giants let go of Pablo Sandoval, that was a wise decision. Hell, even the Cardinals let go of Albert Pujols, and that seems to be a wise decision. You know why those were wise decisions? It’s because a younger player was ready to take his place, it’s the nature of the sport. So as the Hot Stove season gets up and running don’t put too much thought into the right side of the middle-infield, it’ll be fine.
I still want Murphy back, but as 3B/1B insurance. In fact, if I could trade Duda for, say, Matusz, I’d play Wright & Murph at the corners (in either direction).
Let Dilson play & will put up yhose fabtasy numbers.
It is absurd we’re even having this discussion. Let’s compare Hererra who has 149 ML at bats with 40 (27%) strikeouts, with a whopping .215 batting average to Mets best hitter in the past 7 years. It’s ultimate insult to Daniel Murphy who has a .288 lifetime batting average with over 3000 at bats who is the best in the NL at putting the ball in play. Hererra has proven he is well over matched with major league pitching. The breaking ball has made him look so embarrassingly bad it is pathetic and the change-up even worse. Those so obsessed with Hererra as a starting 2nd baseman must live in a pie in the sky world of hope and change. BTW, after 7 years of that in D.C. haven’t we learned our lesson? It appear some Mets fans haven’t either at least between the diamond white lines of baseball.
+1
(Although I see no connection to Washington)
Though I’d rather see Zobrist. But either way, banking on Herrera is sending up the white flag. Let’s not forget how good of a fielder he is: he had to go on a long stretch of DL because a grounder he took during BP ripped up his finger. At 21, I don’t get the rush, particularly at a time when winning the WS is the only thing that matters and we have incredible pitching that it seems we could squander.
This is unbelievably ridiculous.
A guy getting hurt fielding grounders is proof that he can’t field? The same guy that minor league managers named as the Best Defensive Second Baseman? The same one who had a 15.6 UZR/150 this year? You’re grasping at straws.
You place a lot more value on minor league numbers, that for only a few people really have any meaning at all. Herrera is an experiment lock, stock, and barrel. His major league numbers, limited as they are, say he’s nowhere near ready to be a major leaguer.
If others don’t put stock into translated minor league numbers, that’s their loss. I mean, the idea has been around for at least 30 years now. At this point in time, declaring the ability to predict major league success by minor league numbers is as revolutionary as using a phone without wires.
Willie Mays started off his career 1-for-26. Lucky for him, people believed in his ability and didn’t declare him a failure or an experiment. Knocking Herrera for his poor 31-AB performance last year is naive and myopic. Without that stretch, he hit .271/.338/.475 last year. The average NL 2B had a .703 OPS last year. My opinion is that Herrera’s 10-game stretch with a .136 BABIP doesn’t define him in any way, shape or form. Everyone on the team had a longer stretch of equal or worse production last year. It’s just the nature of the game.
Back in 2009, a rookie put up a .206/.275/.289 line over 202 PA in the middle of the year and a lot of people thought that guy was no good, too. That guy had an .870 OPS in Double-A and continued to get a chance because his manager believed in him and all of the injuries the team suffered that year. That guy was Daniel Murphy.
+1 Herrera has the pedigree and deserves this opportunity
Dillon Herrera = Willy Mays? Really?
Look I get there’s a group that think he’s ready. I’m not one that’s ready to make it an experiment on totally unproven hope.
Seriously, that’s what you took away from that — that I was making a direct comparison to Willie Mays? Sheesh, I feel like Andy talking to the Warden. “Obtuse. Is it deliberate?”
Since the meaning wasn’t crystal clear, let me elaborate — Mays, one of the greatest players to ever play the game, had a 1-26 stretch to start his career. If one of the greatest players ever had that, should we be surprised or alarmed when any player does it? Should we leap to conclusions over a sample size that small? What’s more important, that Mays started his career batting .038 or that he hit .353 in the minors in 1950 and .477 in 164 PA in Triple-A in ’51 before being promoted?
No, Herrera is not Mays. But he’s a guy who hit at every stop in the minors, whether you look at rookie ball or A-ball or Double-A or Triple-A. There’s simply no way the default assumption should be that Herrera can’t hit in the majors. None.
Your standards make no sense. Why is it that Marcel thinks he’s going to have a .734 OPS in the majors and Steamer thinks he’s going to post a .708 OPS — both above average marks for a 2B?
If you want to be on record as saying you don’t think Herrera is going to hit, that’s fine. But it’s a minority opinion that’s not supported by his professional hitting record to date.
Still think Herrera needs most of one more year with Wally. But I agree that Murphy should be signed and installed at 1B. Duda can fetch a quality bullpen arm or some high-level prospects. Nothing lost defensively at 1B, much more bat with less Ks and many more hits, and a chance to see what Flores can do for most of a season at 2B. Of course, this assumes Alderson acquires a stopgap SS for a season or two, while the prospects mature. Put the best of the Mets 40-man roster on the field until the All-Star break and shore up the lineup before the end of July. Its a good formula.
While Duda probably will not win any gold gloves at 1b, he is a better defender at the position than Murphy. He’s also cheaper and younger. He brings a more erratic bat to the plate, but does hit with more power. Murph will be missed, but losing him is not the end of the world. Now is the time to find out if Herrera is the answer. Keeping Murphy would impede Dilson’s development and the Mets could use the money elsewhere (bullpen, cf platoon or keeping Kelly Johnson or Juan Uribe for insurance).
A spine of TdA, Herrera, Flores, and Lagares would be the worst in Major League Baseball. A tandem of Flores and Herrera would also be the worst in the majors.
We just went to the World Series. We are at the grown ups table now. We need major league talent not maybes, hope to bes, or some day might bes at this point.
Herrera? Please, he’s a nobody at this point. The answer to your question is no.
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Let’s just hope Zobrist is playing 2B!
Not only is your hyperbole completely out of whack, it seems that you
A) Didn’t watch the Postseason
B) Aren’t familiar with the rest of the lineup
C) You clearly don’t know the concept of prospects getting a shot
If you saw the postseason, you would have seen that Flores made a grand total of one defensive mistake. While his offense went silent in the World Series, he produced in the first two rounds- in addition to a .296/.329/.479 slash line after he thought he was traded. It’s not crazy to believe that Flores can produce alongside Herrera offensively and defensively.
Also, some guys named Curtis Granderson, Lucas Duda, Michael Conforto, and maybe David Wright will be scattered in that lineup.
It’s not a stretch to think that this can be a Major League average offense if the Mets can get a nice platoon partner for Lagares.
You’re right, Herrera isn’t proven. But sometimes teams need to give a guy a chance, and in this case it’s Dilson Herrera.
I’ll ya what, I saw enough of the post season and about 99% of e regular season to know this:
1. The post season is full of strange things, like Cespedes being outhit by Lagares. I watched enough of the regular season to know Flores is a terrible SS and will need to be the anchor of this DP combo. That terrifies me. He can be elevated with a great player at 2B; likewise he could be even worse when the 2Bman is poor, like Murph. A middle infield of Flores and Herrera would be the worst in baseball.
2. I’m plenty familiar with the rest of the line up. And the fact we have 5 number 7 hitters (Lagares, Flores, TdA, Herrera, and Wright) terrifies me. When Wright goes down, and he will, and Cambpell is manning 3B and getting 250-350 ABs don’t be surprised when you hear me say “I told you so”.
3. I’m plenty familia giving prospects a go, like Conforto. Herrera is no Conforto. Furthermore he has to man a premium defensive position while carrying the weight of hitting. He ain’t no Carlos Correa. So we are gonna trot out unproven talent in e middle infield for a pitching centric team. I got news for ya, that won’t get the job done, especially with TdA having the worst arm in the game. That’s a lot of pressure to put on this triad of players.
We just went to the World Series. What got us there was proven big league talent. We are losing that. And we will be clobbered by the competition unless we replace it. Defending league champions don’t spin off the players that got you there and replace them nobody’s and expect to return to October. Duda? Did you watch him this season…post season? Wright? Cuddyer? What if Conforto doesn’t come around v lefties? What if Duda goes on a two month drought? You know, all that is quite likely.
Who knows? Maybe. I’m very much looking forward to seeing if he’s ready and if he will fulfill his potential.
Still, and as others have stated here, the team as is has so many ifs I’m not sure how anybody can feel comfortable with where it stands now on the offensive side. If Herrera can immediately contribute. If Wright and d’Arnaud stay healthy and productive. If Lagares can revert to more than a replacement level player. If Granderson can come close to repeating his 2015 while a year older. If Conforto can keep the momentum going with minimal struggles to adjust. Etc.
If the ifs work out that’s a damn fine offense. If not, it’s another disaster. They’ve got some work to do this off-season.
I think he’s going to be fine, as long as a veteran is brought in to support him. Whether it’s Zobrist or someone like Drew, Herrera nerds a vet to help him carry the load.
Herrera will not hurt this team because the front office won’t let him. Flores will be ready to move over if need be or even go to 3B if need be. The question mark remains who the Mets bring in to back Flores and provide solid support if Flores needs to move. Campbell is not the answer and may not even be on this team next year as Uribe is the preferred choice of backup at 3B. At SS, Jed Lowrie would be perfect, and free agents such as Aviles, Drew, and Cabbrera also would be a nice, Cheap, fit.
Dilson Herrera is ready for the New York spotlight after producing a 893 OPS at Las Vegas. When adjusting for the Las Vegas Factor he would have a projected 719 OPS which would have been around 10th amongst National League second based on 300 at bats in 2015. Flores had a 703 OPS, Murphy. 770 OPS and Johnson a 750. Herrera would be considered the best defender in that group. He also has a higher ceiling and for that reason he should be given the opportunity. The Mets should upgrade at SS , sign Johnson as a backup and start Herrera at second base.
I’ll say one thing. You all see a whole lot more in Herrera than I do. His MLB at bats have been pretty bad, and the plan is to stick an unproven rookie high in the batting order. I’ll take Zobrist all day every Day in that comparison.
Ready or not let’s install Herrera as the starting 2b. Flores nailed a lot of plays in the playoffs and while he will not win a gold glove in our life time, he has come a
long way. With a defender at second Flores will be stronger. Kevin Long needs to make Flores a project and work with Duda to avoid the down side of his bad streaks. Also a healthy Lagares will return to the form of the year before when he hit well and no one dared to run on him. While there is not great base running speed, they need to take a page from the playoffs and become better situational runners and steal off of individual pitchers. Not ruling out any trades but would not move any of the big 4. First time in a long time we can look to the upcoming season and actually believe we can take the division. Let’s go Mets.
Yes, The Dilson is ready.
Actually, he was ready last year but management panicked over an ill-timed 31-AB slump. Hopefully the fact he’s been in the majors parts of two seasons already will grant him the same veteran status that allows guys to play every day despite putting up two consecutive months (over 6X longer than Herrera’s slump) of sub-replacement level ball and still keep a spot in the lineup.
Many Met scouts and hours of film study make them all pretty sure Herrera is ready for prime time duty. I see a lot of another Colombian infielder in him – Edgar Renteria, a good contact, occassional power, decent speed and very good glove.
Mets need all those qualities, not to mention getting younger along with Conforto with the everyday position players. If Herrera does not succeed by mid year, Mets can send him to AAA (still very young) and play Kelly Johnson / Flores there. I say no to Zobrist for 4 yrs $60M.
This is going to be an interesting off season and names will be flying around soon after Thanksgiving, names like Starlin Castro, Asdrubel Cabrera, Puig, Prado, Parra, and my favorite – Carlos Gonzalez, who could man RF and Grandy can play CF and LF when Conforto sits on tough lefties.
Mets get one or two of these cats and improve the BP (O’day, Soria, Hipp, Blevins, Madson) and they are good to go and defend their East Division and NL Crowns.
I’m not being obtuse for the sake of it. I’m also not saying Herrera is a loser that doesn’t deserve a chance. If I were in charge of the Braves of Phillies he’d get 600 ABs next season. He clearly has promise. All I’m saying is he has promise. I consume enough media to know this: just Bout every interview you here from players, ex-players, managers, and FO typos is simple: the big leagues is totally different from the minors. In my view each promotion in the minors demonstrates the ability to master that level, but it’s no guarantee that the person will perform at the next step. In Hererra’s case, he’s shown that in the minors he has done well. In my eyes what’s working against him is the team itself. The Mets were just in the World Series. With the pitching talent we have and the window of its control, it is my opinion that right now this team needs proven high quality talent to replace that which is obviously leaving. Putting the mantle of premium defense and having to bat in a critical spot in the line up on a wholly unproven rookie as a means to win a World Series is complete insanity in my opinion. I want someone who has a track record of delivering, and who can mentor Herrera. The situation is compounded because Flores is not enough of an offensive threat to counterweight the fact he is a defensive liability. That pairing will be one of the worst middle in fields in the game. And that is a total shame given the pitching we have.
Let look at the interesting story of Joc Pederson. By every measure available his prospect status exceeded that of Herrera. At the beginning of last season, Pederson had an average (of a number of big time groups like BA, BP etc) ranking of 15th best prospect in the game. The Dodgers could not wait to get him into the Show and in fact dealt Kemp without concern knowing Pederson was in the wings to man CF. A look through Pederson’s minor league stats is pretty amazing, so it’s easy to see why the Dodgers, with the highest payroll in the game and with a “win now” demand, were antsy to get him up. He hit all through the minors and earned his blue chip prospect status. Unfortunately, MLB-level reality is a fickle mistress. Although Pederson made the ASG on a limited run of big leagues ABs, he clearly had holes that could be, and were, exploited by real pitching. As a result, Pederson languished his rookie season, falling off a cliff after a couple months of being tagged one of two likely RoY shoe-ins. And in the pennant race and post season Pederson was practically invisible. His minor league OPS of .900 lost .150 points, his BA dropped .070 points. My point of saying this is simple: there is no way of knowing if a prospect is gonna carry minor league numbers into the Show, and for a team driving to to World Series, that’s a lot of risk. I’d rather have proven MLB talent in that case, where the window is brief, and throwing 500 ABs into an experiment is, to me, complete folly.
One thing you have to keep in mind is that everyone, and I mean everyone, has a vested interest in keeping alive the “myth” that the major leagues is a whole ‘nother ballgame.
There’s a leap going from Triple-A to the majors. Just like there’s a leap going from Double-A to Triple-A and every other level in the minors. But the press coverage received from the ones who failed to make the leap to the majors is just so, so much more extensive. But do you really think the percentage of those who impress at Triple-A and fail to make it in the majors is appreciably more than the ones who impress in Double-A and fail to make it in Triple-A? I would say that the greatest leap is not going from Triple-A to the majors but rather Hi-A to Double-A.
Regardless, the one thing I wish you would stop is with the idea that Herrera is a defensive liability. He had a reputation among those who watched him on a daily basis in the minors as being a good defensive second baseman and the numbers on what little we’ve seen of him defensively in the majors do not show him as a liability. I feel extremely confident saying he’ll be a better defender at 2B than Murphy.
So, Pederson struggled after major league pitchers adjusted to him. He also excelled when he first was called up. At the end of June (324 PA) he had a .911 OPS. Pitchers found something and exploited it. I don’t think the default assumption should be that three bad months for a top prospect means he’s a failure. He also had a .226 BABIP in that time. I don’t expect that mark from him going forward. But, if you’re concerned about Pederson and think he’s some kind of warning, are you concerned about Lucas Duda? His 2015 story was virtually the same as Pederson’s, even though he has 2,400+ PA in the majors. Why hold Pederson to a different standard than Duda? Should the Mets go out and spend $15 million or more on a 1B upgrade, too?
Meanwhile, Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Matt Duffy, Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, Michael Conforto and others came up and had fine success as rookies. FWIW, Conforto had a stretch early on where he went 4-33, compared to Herrera’s 3-31. But because he had the chance to get more PA, his numbers were better able to absorb that lousy stretch where the hits weren’t falling in.
Herrera does not have to bat in a premium spot. In fact, I’d expect Collins to bat him 8th because that’s essentially what he does with all guys when they come up. Conforto batted 7th, 8th or 9th 31 times as a rookie.
If you expect to be playing for the playoffs, you should want your best guys playing. And sometimes your best guys are rookies. The Mets didn’t start Colon in the playoffs — they went with rookies, including one who had all of six starts in the majors. Is Herrera better than Murphy (or Zobrist or whoever they might get in free agency)? I think you could make an argument either way. But whether we like it or not, the Mets are not operating with an unlimited budget. And knowing that, there’s no reason to prefer the complete package of a Murphy at eight figures to the complete package of Herrera at minimum wage.