It is hard to define the relative value of players in sports. It all has to do with the competing forces of a players talent, their contract and a team’s needs. Metsblog recently posted another in a long line of poor trade ideas centering on Met pitcher, Zack Wheeler. In the article, Matt Cerrone suggests that the Mets could trade Wheeler to the Yankees (He tosses in Rafael Montero and Alejandro De Aza for good measure) for Andrew Miller and Brett Gardner.
On one level, the trade makes sense. The Mets lack an everyday leadoff hitter and could use an additional bullpen arm, like Miller. The problem here is, ignoring the inclusion of Montero as a throw-in, that the trade places Wheeler’s value on the lowest end of his potential value. Let’s consider some other recent trades for pitchers and see what an appropriate haul would be.
Shelby Miller (Age: 25, Arbitration Begins: 2016, Free Agnecy: 2019)
Miller is a quality pitcher. In 2015 he pitched to a 3.02 ERA with 171 strikeouts. His K/9 of 7.5 and his BB/9 of 3.2 are fairly human but nobody would suggest that he wasn’t a quality arm. Now, consider the package that the Braves received for him. Top prospect, Dansby Swanson, Ender Inciarte and Aaron Blair. If we compare Miller’s numbers to that of Wheeler, in 2014, the pitchers are very similar. Miller has the lower ERA but Wheeler’s strikeouts are significantly higher and his arbitration clock is currently a year behind.
The argument against Wheeler is that he was hurt for all of 2015 but that argument doesn’t hold much water. Why would you trade a player at the very lowest point of their value? It’s a good question.
David Price (Age: 30, 1 Month Rental)
The Toronto Blue Jays were looking to go “All-In” with the acquisition of Price. They traded Daniel Norris, Matt Boyd and Jairo Labourt (a promising prospect). David Price is now signed to pitch for Toronto’s rival Boston (For $30 Million per year) and Norris looks set to be a feature of a revamped Tiger’s rotation (that also includes Michael Fulmer).
Price’s numbers are excellent and he pitched very well for Toronto. It may not have gotten the Blue Jays a World Series but a 2.30 ERA, 10.5 K/9 and 1.009 WHIP are the numbers of a top pitcher. Consider that against Matt Harvey. Matt is four years younger, under team control through 2018 and put together similar peripherals. Not only would Harvey blow Miller out of the water in terms of talent but he blows Price out of the water in terms of contract.
The next time you read about the Mets trading one of their young pitchers for mid-level talent, consider some of the comparable trade acquisitions and know the Mets can and should get more.
Funny, I read that article and the subsequent discussion at MMO.
My immediate response was simple. I make that trade so fast they would have have a hard time getting the press room ready. I still feel that way. Miller and Gardner are so needed right now, when the opportunity to win a World Series is burning hot. In return we would be sending a guy coming back from TJ who is an unknown quantity because of it and other mid-low level talent for major leaguers that could help us win now. We dont need starting pitching, but desperate for a serious reliever and a centerfielder. Wheeler has mid level rotation upside (although it remains to be seen if the TJ helps), and Montero is back end starter or reliever, if he sticks. That trade is a Mets win slam dunk, but Cash would never fall for it.
Chris,
I guess we greatly disagree both on the value of Wheeler and Gardner.
Wheeler has the ceiling of an Ace and the floor of mid-level starter with the caveat of an injury. Setting his value where you do boggles my mind.
Wheeler has never shown evidence of being an ace of any sort. His average outing is <6 IP. Thats simply nowhere near ace material, let alone top of rotation. I am hoping he has been pitching hurt and that we see better. So far, he is far more smoke and mirrors than numbers. Meanwhile Gardner is an All Star with a career .740 OPS and a cumulative 27 WAR. He's flying miles over Wheeler. We obviously see very different things. I make that trade all day every day.
Brett Gardner is 32 (33 in August) and is owed, at minimum $39.5 Mil through the next three seasons. His Slugging percentage is comically higher at Home Games (in the lefty band-box of Yankee Stadium) .466 than Away Games .336. He also strikes out a lot and doesn’t steal very often (which is admittedly still enough to lead the Mets in SBs).
After 2014 the Braves traded a slumping Jason Heyward to St. Louis for a slumping Shelby Miller. Both players bounced back and, unfortunately for St. Louis, the Braves won the deal because they had the younger, cheaper, team controlled player.
If we compare Miller’s 2014 to Wheeler’s, neither player averaged more than 6 innings per outing. Now… Wheeler got hurt and didn’t get to return to improve his numbers in 2015 but it seems some are quick to forget that Wheeler’s raw stuff is still electric.
Concerning the poor comps that were made to Wheeler. Vance Worley tops out at 92 MPH and Kyle Hendricks tops out around 91 MPH. Wheeler comes across at 95 MPH regularly and has a lot of life to his fastball.
I don’t know why Met fans are so down on him, but if they trade him for mediocre talent and comes back to haunt us, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised.
Im not interested in Shelby Miller. The trade was Wheeler, Montero and De Aza for Andrew Miller and Brett Gardner.
Wheeler has very little big league career numbers to lean on and is recovering from a surgery that no one know hows he will perform again—if ever. Montero is a lost cause and so is De Aza. None of thos players serves a critical need in the next years. In return you get a premium set up guy and an all star centerfielder, and you give up a pitcher that is certainly not a requirement as we have fabulous starting arms and virtually no one else. Both are critical needs to the team this very second. Like I said, I make that trade to bolster the present team and chances to win a WS with proven talent with this rotation of a life time.
Brett Gardner is not an All Star outside of Yankee Stadium and we would regret that trade before Gardner was off the team.
The best news, in my mind, is that the deal won’t happen.
We agree there, Cash would never let such a trade happen.
“Concerning the poor comps that were made to Wheeler. Vance Worley tops out at 92 MPH and Kyle Hendricks tops out around 91 MPH. Wheeler comes across at 95 MPH regularly and has a lot of life to his fastball”
Yea.. because velocity fastball is the #1 and only thing to look for when looking at comps.
In the end, no one gives a shit if you throw 95+ and can’t get batters outs. It’s about results, and those guys i mentioned were just as effective (or ineffective) in those seasons. In fact, has Wheeler ever had a solid season since he turned pro?
In his first cup of coffee in 2010 he had a middling 3.99 ERA in A ball. In 2011, split between the Giants and Mets A+ affiliate, he held yet another mediocre 3.52 ERA. 2012 was his best year, with a 3.26 ERA over AA and AAA, but hardly dominant for a top prospect. In 2013 was yet another middling season for him with an ERA in the mid 3s and less than 6 innings per start. And 2014 was yet another continuation of that.
So what’s there to get excited about? He’s been meh every season while taxing the bullpen heavily because of his inability to complete 6 innings. His minor league stats are comparable to someone like Collin McHugh. I think it’s a complete joke that scouts ever consider, or still considered him, a top prospect/ace potential.
Wheeler for Gardner is probably a fair trade- Backend starter for a low end starting outfielder.
Given respective ages, contract size and upside — there’s no way that Wheeler-Gardner is a fair trade.
It’s Gardner and Andrew Miller for Wheeler, who is not even capable of playing baseball.
That’s fleecing the Yankees worse that the Dickey trade.
I was responding to the last line in Name’s post.
The Miller comparison is totally inaccurate.
Miller bested him by 20 IP and his ERA was half a run lower. Unlike what you claim, those are not trivial differences. There ERA+ was worlds apart, Miller was above average, 124, and Wheeler was below average, 97. And one is coming off major elbow surgery. A closer comparison would have been Miller’s 2014 season, and the net of that trade was a season’s worth of Jason Heyward.
An even better comparison might be Vance Worley 2012. Or if you want something more recent, Kyle Hendricks 2015.
I would make that trade only because it feels like it could put us over the top. It felt like we were overpaying for Gary Carter too. If a trade gets you a ring, it was worth it.
Dave does make an excellent point though. While I think the Dbacks way overpaid for Miller, our top guys have serious value. When and if the time comes that we have no choice but to trade Harvey we better get a serious haul.
This trade seems a bit ridiculous to me on the surface. Wheeler still has the potential to be the #3 (maybe even #2) in this rotation, which is saying something. Are we forgetting that Wheeler pitched to a 3.54 ERA and 3.49 xFIP to boot. If he was doing that while pitching 32 games on a bum throwing elbow, then that gives me plenty of reason to believe he can come back and improve on those numbers.
Now I’m not saying he’ll come back in 2016 and throw lights out, but he has four quality pitches, and has the heat to blow past people. You want to give him up, plus another potential valued arm in Montero, and someone we just signed for an aging CF we don’t particularly need and who won’t play nearly as well in our park, and a great bullpen arm?
Just go sign a reliever and call it a day. Or make Montero the centerpiece of a small bullpen trade. I don’t understand giving up on Wheeler.