It is a given that the New York Mets will go in 2016 as far as its young gifted starting staff will take them. If we somehow knew that the combination of Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Stephen Matz, Zack Wheeler (hoping for a June or July return), and Bartolo Colon (not so young and not so gifted) would account for 150 or more starts we could be pretty certain that the team will either repeat as the NL East champs or at least be a wild card entrant.
But of course injuries happen. They happen in every sport to great players, average players, and to the scrubs. There is no getting away from this reality. One can only hope that the injuries are not major ones and that the players that are struck down are ones that can be readily replaced.
One of the many consequences of the Mets having a bottom-third payroll is the inability to stock the team with quality subs. Other than the big four top starters it is a mixed blessing that the rest of the team is made up of decent players but not ones that would be impossible to replace should injury strike.
Let’s look at how the team will react if significant games are to be lost at each position.
Catcher – If #1 catcher Travis d’Arnaud goes down, and his past history strongly implies that he will have one or more DL stints, he will be replaced by Kevin Plawecki. While this will not impair the defense it is likely that the team’s #5 batter will be replaced by one who will need to bat 8th. The offense will clearly suffer. Johnny Monel, a quadruple-A player at best, would likely be promoted from Las Vegas. An injury to d’Arnaud would be very difficult to deal with. It would have been even worse were the backups Mike Nickeas or Anthony Recker.
First base – We all know Lucas Duda to be a streaky offensive player. Should a hot Duda go down it would be impossible to replace him. Should an icy cold Duda get hurt then the injury would almost be a blessing in disguise. As this is written the logical backup to Duda would be Wilmer Flores. A most depressing thought is that if the Mets do not sign another legitimate bench player – Ryan Raburn, Steve Pearce, Juan Uribe to name three examples – then Duda’s replacement could even be Eric Campbell. This would be bad, very bad.
Second base or Shortstop – Let’s take these two together because there could be some interesting shuffling should Asdrubal Cabrera or Neil Walker go down. Walker figures to be the second baseman facing all the righty starters but may sit in favor of Flores or Ruben Tejada when southpaws start. An injury to Walker will likely mean that Flores and Tejada take over the position. If Dilson Herrera is tearing it up at Triple-A then he could be called up. If Herrera is not faring well then Matt Reynolds figures to be the callup. Were the injured party Asdrubal Cabrera then the same two, Flores and Tejada, will take over shortstop and Manager Collins will make his daily decision, like he did last year, between the offensively challenged Tejada and the defensively challenged Flores. As a callup the decision again would come down to Reynolds who could play some shortstop or Herrera who could share second with Walker while letting Tejada/Flores cover short. An injury at the keystone would not be very hard to deal with. Two injuries would be more challenging.
Third base – This is the one that has Mets fans holding their breath. There is just no way to know how much to expect from David Wright what with his spinal stenosis issue. Once again Wilmer Flores looks to be the primary backup and this will have negative ramifications both offensively and defensively. And if no one better comes along then we may be treated to more Eric Campbell sightings. This would be most unfortunate. Neil Walker played some third base earlier in his career. If Wright goes down the team could slide Walker over to third and call up Herrera or Reynolds.
Outfield- This is also not a deep set of positions. If corner outfielders Granderson or Conforto go down then Juan Lagares ends up starting every day in center with Alejandro DeAza moving to the injured corner. The early season callup would likely be Darrell Ceciliani but it is possible that later in the year Brandon Nimmo could be ready for the Show and he would be the guy. Were the injured player Lagares then the Mets might have the worst of all things – the defensively deficient DeAza playing every day even against lefties against whom he has never fared particularly well. The farm system has nothing to offer in the way of right handed hitters capable of playing center.
Starting pitcher – A year ago we were all looking forward to the return of Matt Harvey and saying how promising it was to have him join Jake deGrom and Zack Wheeler. Of course Wheeler never made it to the starting gate and now he is the rehabber we are hoping to see midseason. Should a starter go down then the Mets will likely turn to either Logan Verrett or Rafael Montero. The latter is the more talented pitcher but also one who has had more than his share of health issues. Not that one can choose as to when injuries strike but it would be fortuitous for a pitcher to go down after the return of Wheeler rather than before. In that case Colon who would have been consigned to the bullpen can reclaim a starting slot.
Relief pitcher – The farm is not going to offer much help once a reliever or two goes down. An early season callup figures to be Buddy Carlyle or perhaps Jim Henderson. Things look more promising later in the season as Jenrry Mejia will be coming off his latest suspension during the last week of July. Lefty Josh Edgin is trying to return from Tommy John surgery. Some time during the 2016 season he could be ready as a reinforcement.
The bottom line is that the 2016 Mets have depth in the middle infield and not much elsewhere. We have to hope for good health everywhere else but most especially in the starting staff.
Don’t see them platooning Ruben with Walker except against maybe a tough lefty. The inf depth will make Ruben strictly a defensive replacement at best.
Who would he defensively replace? I can’t imagine them pulling Walker, Cabrera, or Wright in a late, close game.
His only value, as I see it, is as an insurance policy through Spring Training in the event of injury. They don’t have to pay the full salary unless he’s on the 25-man at the start of the season. This always for various scenarios to happen. Trade, possibly.
I see little value in him as a $3 million backup to the backup. But I realize I might be on my own little island on this one. As I’ve said elsewhere, I could have accepted a Tejada/Flores SS combo if the club addressed needs elsewhere. But as a bench piece, shrug.
Assuming the Cespy rumors ar unfounded, we need to round out the bench with steve pearce or ryan raburn. Either solves the depth at first and OF issue.
This is a pretty inaccurate write-up in my mind, this team is clearly built to focus on depth.
The IF depth is fantastic 3B can be covered by Flores, Cabrera and Walker, SS by Cabrera, Tejada, Flores and 2B can be covered by Walker, Tejada, Flores. Lots of interchangeable parts in the IF that was obviously to compensate for what we don’t know with Wright.
In the OF we will have another player there (doesn’t look like Cespedes but Rayburn or someone similar will be signed or a trade will be made). Once again the key here is depth as all 5 players will be major league quality and won’t kill us if a bench player needs to start for a period.
One of the things that killed us previous years is that our bench was basically AAAA material and we called up mediocre AAA players to replace that group. This year our entire roster has the depth to get ML at bats. No there is far from a star everywhere, but the roster has players that deserve to be in the MLB. If one of them goes down, then we call up those AAA players and they sit on the bench like they are supposed to.
Depth is far from our issue, and arms are not a problem there either, we have arms to provide depth in the bullpen and rotation to make starts where needed. Of course these arms will be a step down from our big 3, no one has one of those laying around, but they can make starts and hold us in games and not put us into long losing streaks.