The Mets have numerous pieces in their lineup that have the potential to provide offense throughout the season. Yoenis Cespedes, Lucas Duda and David Wright are going to be considered staples throughout the season, as the veterans should be occupied driving in runs. We know that the Mets have a tremendous pitching staff, and that the bullpen should be able to hold their own. The biggest X-Factor heading into this season for the Mets is someone who is going to be starting every day, and will have a tremendous influence on the outcome of the game.
With a great pitching staff, the Mets are able to generate groundballs regularly. For example, in 2015, Matt Harvey ranked 43rd in groundball percentage, with a 47.9%. Jacob deGrom placed 46th with 47.08%. Bartolo Colon was a part of this trend, as he placed 56th with 44.41%. Plenty of fans and people in the media were critical of the Mets defense last season, as the team’s infield featured Wilmer Flores and Daniel Murphy in the middle of the infield. This season, Neil Walker will man second base, and will be an upgrade defensively, yet Asdrubal Cabrera may be a slight improvement over Flores and Ruben Tejada.
According Baseball Reference, Cabrera was worth 15 less runs than the average player playing shortstop for Tampa Bay last season. On a bright note, he was worth 5 more runs than the average player with Cleveland in 2014 while he was playing shortstop.
Taking the same statistic, Flores was worth 8 less runs, and Tejada was worth 9 less runs. We will have to see how Cabrera’s defense responds to playing at Citi Field, but it is going to be crucial that the Mets get good defense from Cabrera throughout the season. He does not have to be gold glove caliber, even though that would be wonderful. If he can play better than Flores and Tejada, then the Mets should be able to get their pitchers more outs, and quicker innings.
Offensively, the Mets seem to have a lineup where every batter can finish the season with more than 10 homers. Cabrera has surpassed this mark the past five seasons, and he showed his former stroke towards the end of the 2015 season with the Rays. In 86 games before the All-Star break, Cabrera hit .223 with five homers, 22 RBIs, .275 OBP with 29 runs. After the break, he performed at a much higher level, hitting .328, hitting 10 homers, driving in 36 runs, .372 OBP with 37 runs. He played in 57 games after the break, and if Cabrera starts the season performing at this level, he could be in for an All-Star campaign. Once again, the Mets do not need that, but it would be wonderful.
The potential for Cabrera to have a great season is there, but there are many doubts people have about his abilities both at the plate and in the field. If the Mets get a big year from Cabrera, that will be huge, as it lengthens the lineup and would be a tremendous boost for the pitching staff.
I think it’s important to note that Flores and Tejada combined to play 1,453.2 innings at SS compared to 1,141 for Cabrera. So, just adding their B-R numbers isn’t give an even-basis comparison.
On a UZR/150 basis at SS, Cabrera had a (-10.4) mark last year while Flores had a (-3.3) and Tejada had a (-11.5). Cabrera’s mark is pretty consistent with what he’s done previously in the category. Here are his numbers since 2009:
(-7.1)
(-9.7)
(-11.8)
(-8.8)
(-16.8)
(-10.5)
(-10.4)
And here are Tejada’s starting in 2010:
1.0
(-0.2)
1.3
0.5
3.9
(-11.5)
Tejada’s been essentially a league-average defensive SS, perhaps a touch better, outside of last year. Cabrera has been exclusively a poor defensive SS. Saying Cabrera and Gold Glove in the same sentence is ludicrous. The only way Cabrera is going to be worthwhile is if he hits like the 2nd half of 2015 over an entire season. It’s certainly possible, but I wouldn’t wager on it.
I agree Brian. The only bit of real good news is that he has experience with NL E pitching, so hopefully it wont be a shocker moving leagues lie it was for Grandy. Hopefully he will be good enough with the glove and the bat shines.
I still don’t see the need for a two year deal with an option for Cabrera with the conga line of shortstops we have coming up from the system. My only thoughts on the signing are:
1)That is what it took to sign him and Sandy wanted him; 2) they wanted stability for the position instead of a rotation; and 3) they see him as an asset they can trade when either Reynolds, Rosario or Cecchini are ready in 2017.
I also like the idea of 8 position starters in the lineup who can all hit more than 15 homeruns.
Cabrera was a good signing because it gives the Mets depth. I think the Mets will keep him at SS until maybe May or June, and then they will bring up TJ Rivera who know how to hit for average. TJ is also an okay but not great fielding SS but TJ also plays 2B, 3B, RF and LF so he is the missing Ben Zobrist part the Mets truly need. I think SS will be a season of sharing between Flores, Rivera and Cabrera. Don’t forget Drubal is a switch hitter who has some power so having him play two games a week is what I see as working for the team. Get Flores 1 game at SS, 1 game at 3rd and 1 game at 1st and he will not become rusty. TJ gets a game at SS, 1 at 2b and 1 or 2 games in RF or LF and he also does not become rusty.
If you think TJ Rivera is going to play this big of a role on the 2016 Mets, I’ve got a bridge I’d like to sell you.
He gives us depth and versatility. His signing indirectly strengthened our bench. That is all. Other than Lagares and Tejada, who won’t be playing regularly, every hitter on the team has power. That’s kinda nice.
I am going to reserve judgment, but all the signs indicate that this guy will be a weak SS and potentially a disaster.
I should also add that I think you missed the boat when you described David Wright as a “staple” who will be busy driving in runs.
He’s as big an X factor as anybody else on the team.
It seems they’re prepped for any/all possibilities with David Wright, Cabrera is similar to Yunel Escobar. Lot’s of experience…some pop… versatile in the IF.
They have versatility and depth…and trade-ables, if David seems healthy and they need other parts.
Let’s Go Mets!