One thing that was said far too often this Spring was that 2016 was to be the first year since Matt Harvey’s promotion that the Mets would not be seeing a major star “Ace” pitcher ascending to the majors. Let’s remember that in 2012 the Mets enjoyed the emergence of Harvey, in 2013 we met Zack Wheeler, in 2014 there was Jacob deGrom who happened to win the Rookie of the Year and in 2015 the Mets introduced us to both Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz. Expecting another “Ace” to come along in 2016 is a little insane, not to mention that the fact that the rotation has no room for Bartolo Colon and Logan Verrett.
Well, The Mets might have another Top Rotation candidate and you might not have expected it. Sean Gilmartin, originally drafted 18th overall by the Atlanta Braves, Gilmartin was a Rule 5 pick for the Mets in 2015.
The Mets used Gilmartin effectively out of the bullpen last season but wisely returned him to the minors for 2016 so he could return to starting. Now, here’s a question, “Why is David talking about a pitcher who tops out around 90 MPH as an Ace?”
The answer to this question is in the statistics.
Back in 2011, Gilmartin had 6 Rookie and A League starts. In that time he pitched 23.1 innings, struck out 31 and only walked 2. What happened after that? Well, the Braves advanced Gilmartin too quickly and advanced the pitcher from A to AA, skipping Advanced A. To make things worse, they promoted him to AAA after 20 starts and he suffered an arm injury. 2013 was a rehab year for Gilmartin and he was raced back to AAA where, big surprise, he wasn’t very good again.
This led to Atlanta trade Gilmartin to the Twins as part of the Ryan Doumit trade. For their part, Minnesota corrected the Atlanta mistake and allowed him to go to AA where, big surprise, he succeeded. However, after another promotion to AAA, he started to stumble again. This led to him not being protected in the Rule 5 Draft and the rest is history.
So you ask, “What has Gilmartin done in 2016 that has me so excited?”
Through three starts (including a 3.2 inning “strech-out” game) he’s pitched 16.2 innings and struck out 20 and during that time he’s only given up 13 hits and 4 walks. Add that up and you see a pitcher who pings all of the major parts of an “Ace” (except throwing over 94 MPH). He’s got a low WHIP, a high K/9 and a favorable K:BB which in most books leads to major league success. Now the question is, “Where does he fit on the New York Mets?”
AAA – Las Vegas 51’s:
Ty Kelly isn’t a prospect… but – He is slashing a .419/.537/.548 and that is pretty impressive. Should Eric Campbell struggle off the bench, Kelly is next in line.
T.J. Rivera does what he’s always done – Hit. Rivera doesn’t have a ton of power or speed but he’s a great contact option.
Matt Reynolds making a strong case – The first three names I’ve mentioned are all future bench players but Reynolds is the best of them, both offensively and defensively.
What about Travis Taijeron? – You know what? He happens to be striking out less this year and could be a great outfield bench option.
What about the “Top Prospects?” – Dilson Herrera is doing so-so but Gavin Cecchini is doing little more than walking a bunch and Brandon Nimmo looks totally lost.
Let’s mention Gabriel Ynoa – He’s not a top prospect. He doesn’t have great stuff and he doesn’t produce great numbers, but he’s had a good start for Las Vegas and it’s worth noting.
Josh Smoker also deserves to be watched – He may have an ERA north of 5.00 but he also has a k/9 close to 18.0 and that could be special.
AA – Binghmaton Mets:
Jeff McNeil is hurt – He was off to a good start too.
Dominic Smith is giving us reason to worry – He’s hitting a little more but striking out a ton for a guy with no signs of actual “in-game” power.
Try to get excited about Robert Gsellman – He’s done really well and is a legitimate prospect but he has less than zero chance of making the Met rotation in the next five years.
After a rough first game, Beck Wheeler has – settled down nicely. He’s the best reliever in AA right now as Akeel Morris looks awful.
A+ – Port St. Lucie Mets:
Time to get excited about Amed Rosario – The prospect is finally living up to the scouting reports. He will be moving up to AA before long as he’s improved all aspects of his offensive game.
Tomas Nido is cooling off – He started very well but that wasn’t likely to last.
Champ Stuart has a future – As long as he keeps running. The Met organization doesn’t have much speed. Stuart is likely the best base stealer in the entire system.
Wuilmer Becerra turning it on – He may have been injured to start the season as he’s starting to hit and hopefully the power and speed will soon start to click too.
Casey Delgado off to a fine start – Any pitcher who can maintain a WHIP of 0.86 through several starts is worth noting.
Corey Oswalt put his first start behind him – He’s been very good over his last two games and is likely the third best pitching prospect in the system.
Tim Peterson has been outstanding – He’s a reliever you should follow as he’s just as likely to get the promotion with Rosario sooner than later.
A – Columbia Fireflies:
Vinny Siena might be special – He’s got a solid line-drive swing and good contact plus he knows how to take a walk. He currently has more walks than strikeouts.
Dash Winningham still a great name – He’s hitting the ball too! I only wish he’d shown more power, but that’ll come.
David Thompson stays on target – Despite Mets360 featuring him as a player to watch in Week 1, he’s not fallen off the wagon.
Chase Ingram still on target – He’s been very good through three starts and he could be among the next generation of Met pitching prospects.
Joe Shaw equally impressive – He’s a little older but both he and Ingram look like candidates for mid-season promotions.
David, I too am getting more excited about Gilmartin and while we all know that the velocity is lower than Matt Moore or other touted lefties, lefty throwers enjoy the advantage of being a minority in MLB and thus familiarity isn’t as prevelant. Further, lefties like Steve Avery and Mark Mulder had very good MLB careers because they controlled the strike zone. That is Gilmartin’s advantage and I do think that he could be in the rotation next year, as the Mets will need to sort through their options.
Gilmartin had a really strong year for the Mets in 2015, thanks to being able to avoid the gopher ball. Can he do that on a regular basis? Maybe.
I thought he was an asset to have as a long reliever but that’s not a role the current Mets’ administration seemingly values. You can make the argument that with their rotation, a long reliever isn’t as necessary. But we saw what Matz’ early exit did to the pen.
I’d like to carry a Gilmartin/Verrett capable of going 3+ innings if necessary and have four relievers who could each go an inning-plus plus a closer and go with six bench spots. But it’s tougher to play matchups that way.
I don’t understand, Brian. Gilmartin was long man last season, and this year the job is Verrett’s. Seems like the Mets value that role enough.
Those two guys fill duplicate roles.
I like Gilmartin as starter, since he failed the audition for later innings last season. I actually prefer Gimartin over Verrett, though there’s not a big difference between them.
Hey James,
I I think there is a more sizable difference between the two than you think. Verrett is a very good #4 pitcher, like Dillon Gee was. He’s going to win some games but his stuff doesn’t produce enough “swing and miss” to sustain much success.
Gilmartin has the numbers in AAA and earlier in his minore league career to suggest that he’s got the ceiling of a borderline #2/#3. The difference is pretty stark in terms of long-term MLB success and potential trade value. Gilmartin>Verrett.
The Mets have an embarrassment of riches on the pitching side. Players like Verrett and Gilmartin are starting on many many other teams.
What’s the longest relief outing for Verrett this year?
And when Verrett had to go to the rotation, they replaced him with a guy who had pitched 5.2 innings in six relief appearances.
Theoretically, Verrett is the long man and should be able to handle the role if called upon.
Verrett is the long man, spot starter. But with this staff, there’s not going to be too many guys getting blown out in the 4th. TC has to keep him sharp somehow.
Calling up Montero was a short-term thing, I’m sure you realize. If the situation demanded length, he would have been the guy. Provided, of course, he could pitch his way out of an inning.
You know what Gilmartin and Verrett are? A nice problem to have. I hate to be a pessimist, but does anyone really think our big four will make 132 starts? One of them is bound to get hurt. And the other 30 starts are expected to be made by a combination of an overweight 43-year-old and a guy still rehabbing from TJ surgery. Verrett’s already gotten two starts and we’re still in April.
This doesn’t even address the bullpen which is lso bound to have a a few guys hit the DL. You have to carry a few floaters in AAA to be successful. No team ends the season with the same 12 pitchers from opening day. Before the season is over, we’ll see Gilmartin, Goedell, Edgin, of course Wheeler, and probably a few others from callups or trades.
Look what Gilmartin did this last week and very little mention.
If your expecting TC to say what a great job he did in L.A. after just arriving from Las Vagas literally hours before. Utley K Puig K and Gonzalas K 3 innings 000 after Colon Melt down. I am waiting Terry? Colorado after Verrett 2 innings after a half a day rest 2 innings 00 Two outings 5 inings 5K’s zip runs. Trade him and let him pitch for someone else who can appreciate what he is a pitcher not a thrower. To much drama with the starting 5 Its comic book land. Thor, Dark knight come on already. Demoted to Las Vegas
Gilmartin deserves to start in the majors but the Mets need to get value for him. I actually think the Mets want to hold Gilmartin and trade Harvey to have two lefty starters in 2017 but all of that is anyone’s guess. Gilmartin will start in the majors for somebody to start 2017.