Bill James in his early Baseball Abstracts first discussed what he called the “defensive spectrum”. Basically it runs from the easiest position to play to the most difficult.
It looks like this:
DH–>1B–>LF–>RF–>3B–>CF–>2B–>SS–>C*
The asterisk after the C for catcher refers to the unique skill set necessary to play that position. While you would expect a competent shortstop to be able to play any position along the spectrum the exception could well be catcher.
Over the century plus that major league baseball has played it has been the usual custom to move aging and injured players leftward on the spectrum as their ability to play their original positions fade.
Players like Willie Mays and Mickey Mantle have moved from center field to end their careers as first basemen. Ernie Banks was a great shortstop early but spent his age 31 to 40 years as a first sacker.
The defensive spectrum is also why some of the greatest players have been the ones who play difficult, often glove-first, positions. Alex Rodriguez and Troy Tulowitzki come to mind as players who provided offense as good as (or better than) the best DH’s and first basemen while playing the most difficult position in fair territory. This could also be said about the catchers who were huge offensive threats: Johnny Bench, Yogi Berra, Buster Posey, and some guy named Piazza come to mind.
The Mets’ situation with David Wright and Lucas Duda has recently brought calls for the team to move Wright across the diamond where his deficient throwing – due to his spinal stenosis – can be hidden. Meanwhile the currently injured Lucas Duda is moving toward the more expensive phase of his career and it is unlikely the team will want to loosen the purse strings for him. Probably they see more Daniel Murphy (the Mets’ version not the current Nats’ edition) there than Yoenis Cespedes or David Wright for that matter.
And it’s not like the team is brimming with hot prospects to take over at either corner. Dominic Smith is a possible first baseman of the future but unless he finally starts hitting some home runs it is unlikely that he will be enough of an offensive force to hold a regular job. Right now he looks more like the next Mike Jorgensen than the next Keith Hernandez. And nothing big is brewing at the hot corner unless you are drinking the T.J. Rivera, Ty Kelly, or Matt Reynolds kool-aid.
It’s the defensive spectrum thing that gives one pause about moving Wright to the easier defensive position presumably as early as spring training 2017.
Here’s a table showing the OPS in the National League in 2015 for each position.
| Pos. | OPS |
|---|---|
| C | 687 |
| 1B | 810 |
| 2B | 703 |
| SS | 686 |
| 3B | 768 |
| LF | 751 |
| CF | 737 |
| RF | 777 |
| SS | 686 |
| 3B | 768 |
| LF | 751 |
| CF | 737 |
| RF | 777 |
David Wright as of the end of the Dodgers’ series was carrying an OPS of 788 which as you see is a bit better than the average National League third baseman but below that of the average NL first baseman. Baseball Prospectus using their Pecota Projections pegged Wright for an OPS of 767 this year and a drop off to 754 next year.
It could be argued that David is moving into the realm of below average fielder at third while he just might become an above average fielder at first. So what he gives away defensively at one corner he might at least partially gain back at the other in defensive runs saved.
But if moving Wright to first will consign the team to a below average hitting first baseman then what are the alternatives?
Obviously one is to hang in there and live with Wright as a sub par fielder. The Alderson built Mets have put little premium on defense so this fits their pattern.
Sorry to say it but the other way to go is for Wright to cut short his major league career. This could be a voluntary retirement along the lines of what his buddy Michael Cuddyer did a few months ago or a retirement due to injuries. In the former case the team would undoubtedly make a nice financial settlement with the captain and he surely could have one of a number of jobs in the organization for the asking. He could be an assistant to Alderson if he wants a future in general managership. He could probably have a double-A managerial job if he would like to eventually be the Mets’ manager. And if he wants to move into the media he could probably have Nelson Figueroa’s job tomorrow.
If medically it can be shown that the stenosis issue has forced the captain off the field then insurance will cover some portion of the monies owed him. Meanwhile the team could use the saved money to try and sign someone to replace Wright’s production.
The last few years of the storied careers of Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, and even Pete Rose were not pretty as they tried to hide their age and infirmity at the cold corner. One can only hope that this future does not await David Wright. He and we deserve better.
Good article; but on one thing you said I must take exception.
Willie Mays may have been “not pretty” to watch in his last year, age 42; but in his age 41 season (and his age 40 season, etc.), he was only lacking in comparison to what he had been before.
Mays in 1972 wasn’t the great centerfielder anymore, but he was still a better centerfielder than, say, Angel Pagan was last year in Pagan’s age 33 season.
At the plate Mays managed the following .267/.402/.446. League average for that year: .248/.315/.365. I could handle some of that embarrassment for this year’s Mets.
The situation with DWright is super fluid…and sadly changing for the negative every day at this point. I think there is hope for him at 1B if he is capable. His body should wear down less, giving him more strength to hit, whether his timing speed ever returns consistently is still unknown. But to go from his triumphant HR in Philly last year through the WS to wondering if he should be retired 2 months into the next season is a practical free fall.
I just cant believe the FO didnt create a 3B contingency plan beyond Flores, who cannot do it.
David Wright has been a great baseball player.
And this year, I think he’s been an amazing one.
Because frankly, I think he’s physically cooked. Lesser players faced with the same obstacles could never have played at the level he’s achieved this season. They couldn’t even make it out of the trainer’s room.
Yes, we see the red flags. All those strikeouts. The days when he looks stiff and lost. Yet somehow, that guy is just so tough. He’s smart, he’s analytical, he keeps trying to figure out a way to stay on the field and contribute.
And hanging on by his fingertips, he’s mostly achieved that goal.
I’m impressed, and amazed, and reminded of just how good he used to be.
Future plans? I can’t go there now. It sure looks murky. I don’t think the Mets can ever again count on him as a foundational piece. They’ll get what he gives them, and nobody can say what that will be. They will always have to prepare for Plan B, tuck a little money aside.
I have grave doubts about what he can do on any given night, in any at bat. Yet he has left me open-jawed again, and again. Taking the walk, rolling the single, driving the ball over the wall, or willing it across the field in an ugly side-armed arc. He still manages to get it done, more or less.
I can only applaud. Clap, clap, clap. That guy is a tough ballplayer, a gifted one, with heart and soul and character. He’s been a great Met, maybe the greatest ever all things considered, and I think it all could end very suddenly. A part of me hopes that’s the way does conclude. We look up, and he’s gone, before the boos come. Nobody wants to see a slow, painful decline. Least of all, I believe, David Wright himself.
Because, you know, he’s amazing. A player to treasure.
Well said James.
I agree, well said, James. It’s really a marvel to see how he can still play at the level he’s currently playing, yet sad to know just how hard he has to work to even get to there. I also agree in that I think the end of his career will be abrupt, rather than a slow decline. It may be that they move him to first for a bit, but I can’t see how a professional athlete (even one of his caliber) can put his body through this for very long.
Pass me a tissue. James, that’s beautiful.
Nice piece Larry. I question the pecota thing. First base is not as easy as it looks. True you don’t have to make throws like a third baseman or cover ground like an oufielder but it’s a highly nuanced position that is pivotal and not as easy as it looks. As a smart player, I think wright could handle it but I don’t see him winning any gold gloves over there.
My point has been that even if he could convert well to 1B if his spinal issue (and now the neck) keep repressing his hitting skills you may have a decent glove and very modest bat at an important offensive position. You know what that is? That’s a right handed James Loney.
First base is not the option for DW. The stretching and bending could be worse at first than third. Mets have to play it out this year, hoping and praying he will be able to get them 100 games, maybe a .260 15hrs 50 rbi and leadership role.
Then in the draft pick the next 3b of the future. Next year, it will be Wilmer Flores full time at 3rd. Sad, but maybe by next year David will be a minors managerial option for the team. No way he gets anywhere near 2020 when contract is up.
Mets get his insurance $ and have to move on, so does David.
He’ll end up perhaps as the best Met position player ever, tops in HR, tops in doubles, 1000 runs scored, 1000 rbi, most games, etc, etc. Then in October, the Mets win it all and he goes out on top…! Storybook ending, storybook captain.