After 126 games in 2015, The Mets were 14 games over .500 and had a 6.5 game lead over the Nationals. After 126 games in 2016, the Mets are at .500, 10 games out of first place. The Mets are not going to win the division. The question becomes, what are the chances of winning a wild card berth?
The Giants are in the lead for the first wild card with a 68-58 record. The Cardinals are in second with a 67-58 record. The Marlins are 1.5 games behind the Cardinals. The Pirates are 3.5 games behind and the Mets are 4.5 games out.
It will be very difficult for the Mets to pass three teams to win the second wild card. In the final 37 games if the Cardinals, Marlins and Pirates each go 20-17, the Mets will have to go 25-12. Is it likely? probably not. Is it possible? maybe. The answer may come sooner than later.
After the Mets play the Phillies this weekend, The Marlins come into town for a 4 game series. This is the critical juncture for the 2016 season. The Mets have to win 3 out of 4, and probably need to sweep. The big game is the first game of the series where Jacob deGrom will face off against Jose Fernandez. The clock is ticking. What does help the Mets is that 18 of their remaining games are against the Phillies, Braves, Reds and Twins.
I am expecting Yoenis Cespedes to have a good September. Jose Reyes is playing well. In order for the Mets to have a chance, Jay Bruce and Curtis Granderson have to get out of their hitting funks. In August, Bruce is hitting .169 with 2 HR and 6 RBI, while Granderson is hitting .162 with 4 HR and 5 RBI. So it seems again, that the Mets will have to rely on pitching.
Rather than having Matt Harvey and Steven Matz going into September, we have Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman who are not going to frighten anybody. Gsellman looked good in his major league debut by pitching 3.2 scoreless innings. Gsellman’s arsenal includes a two seam fastball, which ranges in the low 90’s, a curve ball and changeup. The changeup is his weakest pitch that needs the most work. He also added a slider which he continues to develop. Gsellman’s success depends on effectively working the bottom of the zone. Lugo has pitched well in relief and in his first start he gave up 3 runs in 6.2 innings. Lugo has an interesting story. Ludo missed his first professional season due to spinal lumbar fusion surgery and was bed ridden for three months. Incredibly, Lugo came back the next season and had a 4-6 record with a 3.39 ERA between Brooklyn and Savannah. But as rookies, we cannot expect either of them to carry the team to the playoffs.
It is going to be very difficult for the Mets to leapfrog over three teams to gain a wild card berth. If the Mets can win 3 out of 4 against the Marlins, they will have gained two games on them and will be in a much better position. Let’s see what the Giants, Cardinals, Pirates and Marlins do in the next week. If the Mets continue to play .500 over the next week or two, their chances will be slim to gain a wild card berth.
It could soon be time for the Mets to start playing the youngsters to see what they can do after the rosters expand. I sure would rather see Nimmo and Conforto get more AB than Granderson and Bruce. Otherwise we may have to rely on Bartolo Colon to drive in some runs. The Mets will end up with a 84-78 record and just fall short of a wild card berth.
I’ve said it before,play Flores.
You know if they gave Flores a real chance to play every day at one position, the kid would hit 30 HR. Goodbye Duda.
I only am worried about the Cards, and Mets just took series from them.
Marlins will not have Stanton for most of Sept, and their pitching after Jose Fernandez is suspect. They will fall and the Mets will help that happen. Pirates ? Same thing, pitching not deep and they have to play Cubs and Cards in Sept.
Giants will have one WC and LA will take the West. Cards are the problem… they pitch, they hit, kind of like the Royals version in the NL. If the Mets can miraculously get in and play the Giants in a one game playoff, it would be exciting and a great job by the team to make it with all the injuries this year.
One game and Mets take it in SF to just get a chance to meet the Cubs again, whom they play well against would be terrific. However, I am a realist, this time Cubs win.
Yeah, but the Marlins just got that Hall of Fame OF Jeff Francouer. Ha Ha
I don’t think the Mets are in a bad position for the WC race. Leapfrogging three teams is not a big deal when you consider the tightness of the standings, the caliber of the teams, and that there are 35 games left.
The only obstacle is the Mets themselves. This is a team that needs to go out and win games.
Nobody knows the magic number. The odds are meaningless.
They’ve got a legitimate opportunity staring them in the faces.
Just win, baby.
Poor Jacob deGrom always seems to draw the opponent’s ace, this time it will be Jose Fernandez.
The date of Jake’s next start is undetermined.
they need an 8/10…12/15 streak…that’s gonna require Arms…Health.
I believe it also requires an all hands on deck with the Upside Guys—includes Conforto. DeAza’s nice night aside—you need big upside for a big finish–Not guys who top out at Replacement level.
That brings you right back to some pitcher health miracles.
It is definitely is in their hands. The schedule vs other contenders:
Marlins vs Mets 7, Cle 3, LAD 3, Nats 6 Total 19
Pirates vs StL 6, Cubs 7, Nats 3 Total 16
StL vs Pirates 6, Cubs 6, Giants 4 Total 16
Mets vs Marlins 7, Nats 6 Total 13
Giants vs Cubs 4, StL 4 ,LAD 6 Total 14
This inconsistant team has to beat the poor teams in each series, take 4 of the 7 from the Marlins and split with the Nats. 21 more wins for 85-77 so they need to dig down a little further for one or two more wins.
Hard to fathom how a team that got swept at home by both the Braves and the D-Backs, doormats of the league, has a real chance at the playoffs. The Mets are -14 in run differential, 14th in hitting in the NL, and not strong pitching wise any more due to health reasons. If they do make the playoffs, I hope they realize that the result is ad much a byproduct of the league As it is their own efforts.
But that’s kind of how it felt last year before the playoffs. Yes, they kicked the crap out of everybody from 7/30 to 10/4, but that was just as much a product of Washington playing consistently badly and the rest of the NL East collapsing as it was their own skill and luck.
From July 31 through the end of the season, the Mets were the only team in the NL East over .500. And before that, while the Mets were bumping along at roughly .500 they were always within hailing distance of the Nats, who just couldn’t get out of their own way. They were never further away than 2nd place after April 11 and their biggest deficit all year was 4.5 games, when they were 42-41 on July 5.
They were great, but they had more help last year.