Quick quiz: what do Dean Anna, Brennan Boesch, and Jose Martinez have in common?
Answer: Before T.J. Rivera who did it this year these were the players who won the Pacific Coast League’s batting title in 2013, 2014, and 2015 respectively.
| Season | Player | Team | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | Anna | Tucson | .331 |
| 2014 | Boesch | Salt Lake City | .332 |
| 2015 | Martinez | Omaha | .384 |
| 2016 | Rivera | Las Vegas | .353 |
| 2016 | Brandon Nimmo | Las Vegas | .352 |
And since none of those players have achieved great major league success (you could make a case that Boesch has shown something at the major league level) it is clear that winning a batting title in the PCL is no guarantee of a major league future.
Making his major league debut at age 27 means that there probably is not stardom in Rivera’s future. Major league stars usually emerge at age 24 or earlier.
But what we have seen in the early stages of Rivera’s career as a Met has to be encouraging that there will be some role for him on the big club in 2017 and perhaps beyond.
Two players that Rivera can be compared to are Jeff Keppinger and the pre-Kevin Long version of Daniel Murphy.
Keppinger, a right handed batter, had a solid but unspectacular career as a high batting average, low walks, low power utility infielder. His career spanned the years 2004 to 2013. He started 326 games at 2B, 161 games at 3B, 154 games at shortstop, and 40 at 1B. His defense was average at best. His career slash line looked like this: .282 BA/.329 OBP/.385 Slug pct. This adds up to a 714 OPS. This makes for a serviceable utility player but nothing approaching a star. The fact that Keppinger could be used at shortstop at all gives him a bit of a leg up on Rivera in this area.
The Murphy analogy is based on the fact that both players have experience playing second base, third base, and first base. They both are below average defensively wherever they are put. Until Murph became a power threat starting last October he was a high batting average, low power, low on-base guy. Both Murphy and Rivera would be good players to use by managers who employ the hit and run play. Terry Collins virtually never uses this strategy so that particular skill is wasted.
It is likely that Rivera could give the team the kind of offense that Keppinger gave his various teams in his day. This will become a factor as the Mets decide exactly how to handle the impending Neil Walker situation.
The club will try to get a handle on Walker’s health future. Then they must decide whether to give the player a qualifying offer. Also if they decide Walker has some years of productivity in front of him they need to decide whether to bid on his services with a multi-year offer. A returning Neil Walker means that Rivera is most likely the backup at second and third.
If the team opts to pass on Walker as they did on Murphy last off season then Rivera along with Wilmer Flores, Gavin Cecchini, and perhaps others will vie for the starting second base job in 2017.
These are heady times for the rookie Rivera. His future is now.
Sorry to repeat and repeat myself, but I firmly believe that the only, single solitary reason why Rivera didn’t get an earlier chance to show what he could do in the major leagues is that fact that the team hadn’t drafted him, and therefore had nothing invested in him. It’s a flat-out stupid reason for doing (or not doing) something, but one sees it all the time.
I mention it because of the age issue for Rivera — that he didn’t make the majors until age 27, and that most players in that boat do not have long careers — doesn’t play in quite the same way, if the reason for the late start is something other than a lack of talent. Back in the 1940’s and 1950’s plenty of guys had late starts to their careers, for various reasons but usually either military service or players being stuck on one of those enormous farm systems that some teams kept, who still got to make their mark upon arriving. Of course no one can give Rivera his best years back to him, so his career will be shortened “naturally,” so to speak. But I don’t see him as a Rick Anderson sort of call-up, someone whose presence is a reward to a long term minor league foot soldier. I think he can help a team.
I like T.J. Rivera and I’m happy he’s getting a chance. But I don’t see this pattern of the org screwing him.
In both 2011 and 2012 he got mid-year promotions.
In 2013 he started back at the same level he finished 2012. But Danny Muno was older and hit better at the same level in 2012. It wouldn’t have been right to promote Rivera over Muno. And Rivera had his worst season in 2013, so you can’t even argue hindsight. He didn’t earn a promotion
In 2014 he got a mid-year promotion
In 2015 he got a mid-year promotion. Dilson Herrera was ahead of him at Triple-A. Maybe you can argue that he should have started the 2015 season at Triple-A at 3B over Muno but Muno had already played the entire ’14 season at Triple-A.
I think the two best cases that the org didn’t treat him the way they might have had he been drafted was the start of 2015 and then this year when Reynolds and Kelly got called up ahead of him. But the latter had more to do with the 40-man roster than anything else.
Draft position has affected the minor league careers of countless players. Ultimately I believe that cream will rise to the top.
I understand the issue with Rivera. He’s a marginal talent, like a control pitcher with underwhelming stuff. When it all breaks right, he wins.
Rivera isn’t a great glove. He doesn’t typically hit for power. Or run fast. Or even talk walks. Even his base running has been a little strange at times. When he hits .300+, he’s an asset. Maybe he can do that for a few years. I don’t know.
What I love is that his style is such a refreshing complement to Sandy’s prototypical players. He gets the bat on the ball, hits for average. This is the season when I became truly appreciative of situation and sequence in baseball, plus the wisdom of the varied “old school” lineup. The fast guy, the bat-control guy, the slugger, the defensive wizard, etc. too much duplication is a bad thing, unless you are xeroxing Joe Morgans.
Rivera and Reyes gave the Mets offense qualities that they had previously lacked, and I think that contributes to the whole. Jay Bruce, OTOH, doubled-down on all the old traits. Big power, low average, streakiness, high strikeouts, poor defense, slow.
Couldnt agree more. I am a big believer of the varied diet approach to players. Some speed, some bat handling, some power, some gap-to-gap etc. Defense matters. The one-type approach is basically not fulfilling to watch.
Larry,
Did the Mets opt to pass on Murphy, or did he reject the QO?
The Mets gave Murphy the QO fully expecting him to decline it so they would get a supplemental 1st round pick when he signed elsewhere.
They would have been shocked and likely disappointed had he accepted. If he had taken it then the team likely wouldn’t have had the available funds to sign Cespedes.
TJ Rivera is leaving a mark on September 2016 with hopes of a major league roster spot in 2017. Even with the 40 man roster problem, he should have been brought up sooner. Walker with his 114 career OPS will be an interesting call for the Mets. If Walker comes back wouldn’t Flores be the backup? If Wright comes back, isn’t he the starter or backup to Reyes? TJ is forcing his way into the 2017 dicusion and that is a good