As we flip back to our Top 50 prospect countdown we reach a group of players that minor league fans should know about. From here on out there are fewer and fewer surprises and almost none for those of you who follow my minor league reports should see a name you’ve never heard of. Last year we pegged P.J. Conlon and David Thompson in this group and saw only one of the five, Jeff Diehl, fall off the list entirely.
#35 Chris Flexen, SP: We talk about Port St. Lucie being a major test for pitchers. Had Flexen hit Advanced A and succeeded right away, he would have rocketed up this list. After a ho-hum season, he drops a few ranks and goes back out there to prove it was nothing more than an adjustment. Why is the FSL so much harder than the SAL? One reason, plate recognition. In 2015 Flexen had a K/9 of 8.8 and a B/99 of 1.9 for the Savannah Sand Gnats. In 2016 that K/9 dropped to 6.4 and the BB/9 rose to 3.4 and the reason is 100% plate recognition. Less hitters are chasing pitches out of the strike zone and that means that pitchers without dynamite stuff need to adjust their offerings. Even if Flexen never gets his K/9 back up to the numbers he once had, if his WHIP and BB/9 can recover it will show that he’s made the necessary adjustments to succeed at a higher level. (ETA: 2019 Ceiling: 4th Starter)
#34 Champ Stuart, OF: It’s easy to dismiss a player like Stuart, who is mostly known for being fast. He’s likely the fastest runner and best base stealer in the entire Met system but he’s also not so great a hitter. In 43 games at AA he managed a paltry .525 OPS which isn’t going to translate into anything at the major league level. Then he went to the AFL and he showed just how much he can do if he ever figures out how to consistently get on base. Stuart hit .300 which led to 12 stolen bases, 5 extra base hits and a .729 OPS over the brief 19 games he played. This wouldn’t mean much, excepting that the AFL tends to have some of the more talented players in baseball attending. In 2017 he’ll repeat AA and if he can get his OBP above .350 and cut down his strikeouts he’s going to be a player to watch. (ETA: 2018 Ceiling: 4th Outfielder)
#33 Tim Tebow, OF: Love it or hate it, Tebow is a Met. I wondered just where Tebow belonged on an overall list of Met prospects. He’s too old to really be a prospect but has too much raw talent and buzz to fully ignore. I’ll admit that I’m ranking him a bit too bull-ishly at 33 but I also think the case could be made that he’s got more potential (if that can be believed) than some of the players listed higher on this list. I fully expect Tebow to never reach the majors but in the near impossible future where he somehow hits the ground running, it’s not absurd to think he’s going to be an impact starter with a significant bat. Back in reality we can’t expect too much from Tebow who struggled through his early going but neither can we really dismiss him out of hand. (ETA: 2018 Ceiling: Starting Quarterback?)
#32 John Mora, OF: We don’t often talk about Mora who has always been a little old for the level of competition he’s faced. The small-ish lefty outfielder can field each position and has a mix of power and speed that could make him a solid contender as a 4th or 5th outfielder. If you want to know exactly why this relatively unheralded prospect has repeated an appearence as #32 in the Met’s Top 50 prospect countdown it’s very simple. Mora has excellent plate discipline that fosters a good OBP. This in turn has led me to believe that he could become an ideal backup outfielder in the future. (ETA: 2018 Ceiling: 4th Outfielder)
#31 Phillip Evans, 3B/2B/SS: Evans had fallen completely off the radar after briefly shining back in 2011. At 23 he reached AA without much expectation and suddenly, he showed something special. Evans blasted out a .859 OPS in 96 games as he smashed 30 doubles and 8 home runs in 2016. Evans plays all over the infield but is far better at thirdbase and secondbase than at short stop. With Amed Rosario, Gavin Cecchini, Dominic Smith and Matt Oberste crowding the AAA infield it wouldn’t be impossible to see Evans held back in AA but the Mets might also start his progress as a super-sub early and mix him all over the field to get him playing time. (ETA: 2017 Ceiling: Utility Guy)
Tebow? I know you admit you’re bullish but you also knew you’d take heat for ranking him anywhere near this list, right?
On my first bout of rankings I listed him 50th and raised him to 33rd after I did some evaluations of ceiling. Tebow is 100% a curiosity, as Eraff says below, but that makes him intriguing. It’ll amount to little in the long run.
Tim Tebow is not a Prospect… He’s a Curiosity/Suspect. You can abosolutely dismiss his chances…anyone with great talent, a dream and a heavy work ethic can build a story—it would be nice if he does.
Tebow is hardly a sticking point and at #33 is fine. Prospects in the 30’s are fringe prospects at best, anyways. But how is Flexen, who is in the 40 man roster and throws 95, ranked 35th? And then, a five tool player that does K quite a bit, 34th? Evans is killing it at winter ball also and he’s only 24 y.o., he’s 31?
So, Sanchez 39th and now these guys 35, 34 and 31…makes me wonder what will be up ahead.
I don’t have second thoughts about Stuart or Sanchez but Flexen and Evans were both candidates to be ranked higher. I think they fell around where they deserved in terms of production and ceiling.
I foresee most of the discrepancy falling around the relief pitchers I have higher on my list. We will see.
Ordinarily the site works on these as a unit of 3-5 authors so the opinions are less skewed. Hopefully, next season we have a group working on this project.
Anywho…
Time to send Brian 30-26 and 25-21
I don’t love the low Ks by Flexen. Definitely a prime indicator when it comes to pitchers.
Took guts to put Tebow on this list.
Evans has been on the radar for me because he was one of the few overslot picks in SA’s combined drafts, a guy we’ve always watched. He’s been a disappointment, and the Mets don’t seem to have a need for his skill set, but you never know. He had a great season. I sometimes wonder how many players on the planet project to be useful utility infielders — and how few actually perform that role successfully. Cecchini as a #1 pick still boggles my mind, even though I’ve come to like his bat and his potential. Just seems like such an easy slot to fill.
Are we grading Cheech Pass/Fail on whether we see a Superstar or not? He doesn’t have a single amazing “tool”… this seems the case for several of their “top picks”.
Sandy’s HS picks have seemed to be Baseball Players versus “Athletes”— they profile and project with their baseball skill, without a major athletic component that would normally be the base for a raw star. Real stars have Both. If I were drafting 22 year olds, I’d want to see tremendous advancement of skills and in-game prowess— my own leanings on HS players would be to accept lesser Skills and focus on major tools and athleticism.
Maybe Sandy’s approach dictates the fact that all of these guys have competed well and advanced well—without the look or projection of being “stars”.
We can grade him on his play alone which I think will see him a starting middle infielder as early as 2018. Not something to sneeze at.
We can grade Cecchini’s draft as one of the worst for Alderson without it directly reflecting on the player himself… if that makes sense.
Was he a bad selection? No.
Was he a bad selection given the talent in his draft? Yes.
Is that his fault? No way!
If you told me I was drafting a Starting Middle Infielder with the 11th pick in the draft, I’d be very happy…always!! Well…I’ll be happy if he’s a Starting MIF
I believe the Cheech pick is being “graded” against “anyone drafted behind him who’s better”…. so, Cory Seager’s name pops out—Picked 18th. Giolitto has always been the collective complaint. It was popular to focus on Wacha, who came up so quickly.
Then again, many have brought up Russell–who was drafted ahead!!!
Drafts are double edged swords.
Players drafted after Gavin Cecchini that appear to be superior prospects/players:
Lucas Giolito
Corey Seager
Michael Wacha
Marcus Stroman
Jose Berrios
(Available after Kevin Plawecki)
Stephen Piscotty
Joey Gallo
Yet there are more players drafted in that group who haven’t amounted to anything. We can get on Alderson’s case for missing out on Seager but hind-sight is 20/20 and nobody can be right all the time.
ok, Dave—so how is it that Cheech would be considered a “worst pick” if we are grading him on his advancement through the minors and a projection of being a starting Middle Infielder???
That isn’t something I’ve been arguing.
You’ve thrown me off your trail
“We can grade Cecchini’s draft as one of the worst for Alderson without it directly reflecting on the player himself… if that makes sense.
Was he a bad selection? No.
Was he a bad selection given the talent in his draft? Yes.”
Cecchini is a one tool player. He can hit but is a slow runner, is a poor defensive player, and also has trouble throwing the ball. I’d say Alderson stuck out with Cecchini, and most of his other picks except for pitchers which he seems to have a knack for assessing. Just look at his choices of Conlon, Szapucki, Molina, Peterson, Kay et al…as these are good choices. Sandy needs help in assessing, and signing position players which he has been really terrible at doing with any modicum of efficiency, effectiveness or success. Remember, he picked Dominic Smith who also cannot field his position, has problems throwing the ball, and cannot control his weight. Taking Dom Smith was a dumb assed signing by Alderson. Smith has always had weight problems, and has a problem staying in shape at 23? Sandy picked Peter Alonso who has a tremendous amount of power but just cannot field. I think Sandy still gets confused, and forgets that he is no longer in the AL, and seems to make most of his picks contingent upon American and not National league standards.
Too bad MMN was down for a couple of days, the interview would have been perfectly timed.