The 2016 New York Mets were able to make the playoffs as the first wild card with a record of 87 wins and 75 losses. The team accomplished this feat in a division that featured two teams in the midst of rebuilds, the Atlanta Braves and the Philadelphia Phillies. Those teams combined to go 139 and 184, the Miami Marlins also under performed with a record of 79 and 82, these three teams should all be much improved for the upcoming season.
The Atlanta Braves are moving into a new ballpark, SunTrust Stadium, in 2017. With this new stadium come greater expectations. The franchise has made a couple of moves this off season in hopes of fielding a more competitive team this season. They went out and signed veteran starters R.A. Dickey and Bartolo Colon, both of whom also happen to be former Mets. While both veteran starters are well into their 40’s they both represent an upgrade over the starters the Braves were running out last year. These two starters as well as additions Sean Rodriguez and Jaime Garcia will make the Braves a much more difficult opponent in 2017.
The Philadelphia Phillies also have taken steps in the right direction for the upcoming season. The 2016 version of the club had a very up and down season going through surprising stretches of prosperity before leveling off to the substandard club many predicted them to be before the beginning of the season. So far this off season they have added starting pitcher Clay Buchholz and reliever Joaquin Benoit. While neither of these moves are blockbuster additions, the addition of a legitimate major league starter and a solid reliever in Benoit the Phillies look like a more formidable opponent for the Mets in 2017.
The Florida Marlins were a team embroiled in much turmoil in 2016 with the untimely death of young superstar pitcher Jose Fernandez along with Giancarlo Stanton being injured, they did not quite achieve preseason expectations. The loss of Fernandez will be a difficult one to deal with both emotionally and on the field for the club. Stanton started to come on towards the end of the season and will look to have a more productive and healthy season this year to try to live up to his massive contract.
With these teams improvements for the upcoming season along with the continued improvement and strong play of the Washington Nationals, the Mets will need to get healthy and productive seasons out of their young starting rotation. They will also need improved seasons from catcher Travis D’Arnaud as well as Michael Conforto. If Lucas Duda and David Wright can remain healthy that will greatly help their chances as well. The 2017 season should be a very interesting one and will have a great impact on the future direction of the team as well. With Terry Collins possibly in his last year as a manager and the upcoming contract decisions on players such as Matt Harvey and Lucas Duda, the upcoming season will be pivotal.
I see the Marlins as contenders for 100 losses and worst team in baseball. Their pitching is going to be horrendous without Fernandez.
I don’t forsee improvements from the Phils other Braves either and think they’ll end up with about 70 wins again. But hopefully the distribution of wins will be better against the Nats and they won’t go 9-29 combined vs them in 2017
The Braves and Marlins have solid lineups but I still don’t think either has the pitching to be competitive. The Phillies have a few interesting young players, but they’re a ways off too. I still see this as an obvious two-team race.
The Braves to me are the most interesting team. They had such a difference between their first half and second half records. Who knows what their offense can be with a full year of Kemp, Swanson and Inciarte?
Kemp was markedly better in ATL than SD last year but Steamer sees him being much closer to the guy he was with the Padres. To me, he’s the key. If he hits for a full year like he did in the second half, I can see this team winning 78-80 games.
Not to mention, the Braves as a roll-over seems to have come to an all-to-soon end. Even if the Braves arent a good team overall, all I care about is the 19 games v Mets, as I dont see them as a division threat of any sort. With that, there is plenty to be troubled with as they have a string of players that seem to love facing the Mets: Inciarte, Freeman, Swanson just to begin. The Marlins are interesting with moving to a pen-centered strategy, similar to what the Royals did. What does that mean for the Mets? Not sure, but again, there are a number of folks that seem to like playing against the Mets, especially in big ABs: Prado, Yelich, Bour, and Stanton. I dont see them as threats for the division, but again, 19 games is all that matters to me (and to some extent their respective 19 games each with the Nats). If the pitching lives up, then I like to think Sept will be pretty exciting, with a harder schedule than last season (Astros, Cubs, Nats), and 6 games against the Braves certainly looking to play spoiler.
I believe the Braves are keeping it competitive as they bring their young talent through the system. The Marlins have a nice Lineup…the loss of Fernandez is such a tremendous blow. The Phils have some very exciting young players who will emerge over the next 10-18 months. The Nats are the Cream of the crop until the Mets show otherwise.