“Are you kidding me? The Mets have been garbage and we’re keeping this kid in AAA to see Jose Reyes start? That’s a joke, right?”
“You want to bring a kid up and ask him to carry the team? You want to sacrifice a year of service just to make a roll of the dice that he’s ready?”
Amed Rosario’s 2017 batting line looks tantalizingly good, even with him playing in the hitter friendly PCL. He’s leading Met minor leaguers in batting average, hits and is second in RBIs, he proved in spring that he has the athleticism to play shortstop and he’s just sitting in Las Vegas waiting for the Mets to give him a call. Take a look at this:
| BA | OBP | SLG | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | SB |
| .360 | .398 | .537 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 26 | 8 |
With the Mets free falling out of contention for the 2017 playoffs it seems like a “no brainer” to have Rosario join the Mets, shift Asdrubal Cabrera to 3rd and try to inject some life into the team. That seems like perfect logic, until you consider the negatives.
What happens if Rosario struggles in his first stint in the majors?
What if the Mets promote him and still keep losing?
What if the Mets lose a key year on a contract they fail to renew in the future?
When you stack the what ifs on the positive and negative side of a player you’ll almost never have a good answer. It would be far easier if the Mets were sitting comfortably above .500 to come up with a game plan. Instead, bringing up Rosario would be (essentially) hitting the “Panic” button. Problem is, that might be exactly what the Mets need to do.
2018 is the last season of Matt Harvey, Steven Matz and Jacob Lugo are on the mend and we are still likely to get Noah Syndergaard back for some amount of the 2017 season. Are we going to miss an opportunity to resurrect an entire season of baseball life for the possibility of contract problems in the two thousand twenties?
Before you go and place me into the promote Rosario camp, know that promoting him is crazy. He’s one, unproven, player and the Mets aren’t desperately looking for a few more runs, they’re desperate for starting pitching. You don’t even know about Rosario (100%) defensively. He’s had a rough time in Las Vegas, probably due to the field conditions, and you cannot guarantee he doesn’t have a learning curve.
There is only one thing I know for certain, Jose Reyes and Wilmer Flores are not cutting it (even after Reyes’ heroic catch and recent hot streak). Even if you discount the early struggles the Mets are not getting much from a number of key offensive positions. I may still be in the keep Rosario in Vegas camp, for now, but I am starting to feel the urgency and desire to hit that magical “Panic” button.
Where do the rest of you stand? Share your opinion on how the Mets should handle Rosario in the comments section.
AAA: Las Vegas 51s
Dominic Smith ho-hum excellence – He only hit .293 with 2 home runs and 5 walks in the last 10 games… only.
Gavin Cecchini still revving up – He’s not nearly hitting to the levels of Rosario and Smith but it seems he’s getting there.
Travis Taijeron what do you want me to say? – Doe he hit? Yes! Will he be a major league success? Almost certainly not.
Desmond Jennings is threatening Juan Lagares – With Lagares strugglinh on offense and defense Jennings may soon find his way to the Flushing depth chart.
Brandon Nimmo walking – He’s got 11 walks in his last 10 games meaning he might be a little overly cautious at the plate right now.
Tyler Pill back at it – After an ERA blip he’s back to quality starts for Vegas.
Tim Peterson promoted to AAA – He’s advanced in age but he deserved the promotion and could be moving to the majors to patch the bleeding mess of the Mets bullpen.
AA: Binghamton Rumble Ponies
P.J. Conlon has a rough outing – He gave up 10 hits last week and that lead to 5 earned runs.
Corey Oswalt stays solid – He’s been pretty sharp since late April.
Kevin Kaczmarski getting hotter – He hit .363 over his last 10 games and knows how to take a walk.
Tomas Nido showing signs of life – With Mazeicka baning on the door, Nido is finally starting to hit.
A+: Port St. Lucie Mets
Justin Dunn we’ll call that a victory – 5.0 innings, 1 earned runs, 3 walks and 3 Ks.
Do you think either Rosario or Smith are ready for the majors? My feeling is they should not rush them, and let them play out the season in AAA.
“Ready for the majors” is a tough thing to determine. I believe that they’ve proven that AAA isn’t a challenge for them offensively. Both could struggle in the majors, as the PCL is completely unrealistic, however both could hit the ground running.
I think the key is that, with a .900+ OPS, Rosario is very tempting.
I don’t believe Smith is ready. He’s slugging .478 in Las Vegas – That’s horrible.
Edit: Horrible isn’t the right word. Let’s just say it’s not major league quality.
Rosario would not lose a year of service if promoted now unless you want to leave him in AAA all year without even a September call up.
I believe we are still within the “Super Two” window. The rule states that a player must have at least 86 days of service in the immediately preceding season to qualify for this status.
Super Two means that he gains a year of arbitration, not that he becomes a free agent any earlier.
Here is a more realistic question;
Can they do worse than Reyes and Duda have done so far? if the answer is no, then you have nothing to lose as they gain valuable experience.
Not bringing them up is about trying to see if Duda can regain some of his value in order for the Mets to trade him. Ditto on Walker, Granderson and maybe even d’hurtno.
After Super 2, you bring him up.
Ready for the Majors? Nobody is ever fully ready. But ready to take the next step, to learn what can only be learned at the majors. The glove is ready.
I don’t believe in the idea of prospects being ruined at the majors. They can always be sent down again.
This is the sports-entertainment industry and the Mets are becoming a brittle and boring team. A new face would help on multiple levels.
A comparable prospect has been tearing it up for LA. So while it is reasonable to consider the downside, I see a failure to consider an upside — that he gives the team a jolt and helps them win games. Not a savior, but a helping hand.
Doing nothing is unacceptable.
But of course, this GM wanted to start the season with Conforto down in AAA. Where he could learn nothing.
I agree that after Super Two, Rosario has no business in AAA anymore. Smith has been less overwhelming but if Duda goes down again it forces the Mets hand.
If Curtis continues to hit according to his past pattern, I could see Bruce sliding to 1B.
To me, Cespedes and Conforto must play every day. That’s non-negotiable. Bruce might slump, might get to clear his head for a game here and there, but he’s playing.
The question is Duda or Granderson.
I just don’t see Smith in 2017. But I’ve been wrong before!
Id like to see Rosario struggle in AAA and figure it out before coming to the show for more than a cup. Sure, hes pretty much been the boss, but I dont think thats likely to be uniformly true.
He’s gonna face some level of struggle in the bigs most likely, and letting him work that out a bit when the lights aren’t on him would be nice.
Im so excited about Rosario I cant stand it, and I want him here yesterday, but he is never coming up before Super2. He can marinate a little more without going bad!
Baseball is a business so after Super 2 but no later than August. He can be handled like Conforto was in the summer of 2015. He should be eased in and with two veteran shortstops to learn from he should get the experience so that 2018 will become a smooth transition.
1. They wont be promoted until after the super two deadline which is sometime in mid June this year. 2. the Mets problem has not been hitting, it’s pitching.. although SS and 3B fielding has been atrocious and cost us games… Ex: Wilmer’s error on the DP ball should have ended the game, instead we lose, Familia has surgery and the Mets lose 6 more in a row. Mets will continue to roll the dice on the team they built for this year… if the pitching comes around they have a shot at 2nd WC.. but if not they hope players who will be FA’s at the end of the year can play well enough to have value by Mid July to get some depth pieces for the near future. (Walker, Bruce, Reed, have value)… (Reyes, Duda, Salas, Granderson, currently don’t) we wont be trading Cabrera or Blevins unless someone ponies up something big because they have very attractive Team friendly options based on their prior and 2017 performances.
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A lot of time between now and mid July, another quarter of a season, so there’s a lot that will unfold before those big decisions are made.
My feeling is that it is awfully hard to become a seller in today’s WC climate. A .500 club has a legitimate chance of competing for Game 163, and teams are loathe to “give up” prematurely. At the same time, that kind of cold, clear-eyed assessment can reap rewards, since sellers are at advantage.
I don’t know that Walker at his salary would get the Mets much. Reed definitely would. Bruce . . . I’ve given up speculating on the value of Jay Bruce. Clearly the farm system is in dire straits and needs an infusion of talent. I’m not sure that a traditional sell-off of spare parts will yield much. Who have they got to trade that anybody really, really wants?
So given that, I see the Mets floundering around near .500, hanging in there on the fringes, and maybe getting healthier. If Matz comes back . . . if Lugo can be useful . . . if Noah returns by late July . . . if Harvey slowly improves . . . if Jake gets hot . . . could they make a run at the crappy 2nd WC? Seems like they could easily be playing for “something” in late September.
Isn’t that the Wilpon dream? Not excellence. Not greatness. Not championships. But meaningful games in September? With the 2nd WC, it’s never been easier to create that illusion of competitiveness. Six hot weeks can get you to Game 163. Hard to pass that up in favor of a few mediocre prospects picked up in a July garage sale.
Jimmy P,
Your point about the Wilpons is right on. I know it has been made in the past, but it is still true. Why spend like a true major city franchise when all you have to do is spend enough to play “meaningful games in September?”
The results of 2015 and 2016 reinforced this thinking. Both times the Mets were a flawed team that got hot late in the season. In ’15 they were aided by a major collapse by the Nats.
This year the mantra was that their starting pitching would be good enough to carry them to a successful fall. Alderson, whether by his own design, or by the limitations placed on him by ownership, has created flawed teams that have lately performed well enough. No one would mistake the Mets for a perennial major power.