If you were to look up Met prospect P.J. Conlon without looking at his stats you might consider him an oddity of little import. The Belfast (Yes, the one in Ireland) born lefty has been steadily rising through the Met system since 2015.
- 2015: NYP – 17.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 25 K and a 0.59 WHIP
- 2016: SAL & FSL – 142.0 IP, 1.65 ERA, 112 K and a 0.98 WHIP
- 2017: EAS – 53.2 IP, 3.02 ERA, 48 K and a 1.04 WHIP
Stats compiled as of 5/26/17
Some might look at the rise in ERA and WHIP with concern and with good reason. Conlon has seen his numbers steadily rise as he’s gone up through the minors. That being said, he’s rocketed through the minors and you would expect a pitcher to struggle against higher level hitters as they are exposed to them.
The important thing here is that while his numbers have gotten worse, they remain very good despite an expected transition period. Additionally he’s averaged 5.9 innings per appearance meaning that he typically last through the 6th or 7th inning. All of this is relevant and important as the Mets continue to suffer the realities of Matt Harvey’s diminished control and velocity, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz and Seth Lugo sustaining injuries and the continued presence of Rafael Montero.
A player like Conlon could be an important piece to the Mets later this season, should the Mets elect to skip him beyond the trials and tribulations of Las Vegas. Conlon profiles as something more than a Robert Gsellman but certainly something less than any of the Met Aces. Here’s hoping that he, or anyone else, can step in and end the Met pitching tailspin.
AAA: Las Vegas 51s
Amed Rosario has some flaws – There remains a certain level of swing and miss in Rosario’s game that will keep him from being a high OBP guy, though the same was once said about Jose Reyes.
Dominic Smith showing more power – He doesn’t have great power but he’s hit 7 home runs and 14 doubles in the season so far suggesting some power.
Gavin Cecchini lacks consistency – He’s hitting sporadically and needs to find his groove again.
Tyler Pill promoted to the majors!
AA: Binghamton Rumble Ponies
Corey Oswalt still good – He hasn’t been as good as Conlon but Corey Oswalt has been very solid as the #2 of the Binghamton staff.
David Thompson finally starts going – One of the offensive stars of 2016, Thompson had a rough start to 2017 but has starting hitting recently.
Tomas Nido getting hot – He hit .385 for the past 10 games and is working hard to get back in the spotlight.
Tim Peterson back in AA – After a brief, and successful, glimpse of AAA Peterson is back in Binghamton.
A+: Port St. Lucie Mets
Justin Dunn better in relief – It was still 3.0 innings but Dunn kept batters hitless, for a change.
Wuilmer Becerra strikes out less, but – He’s also not hitting enough.
Peter Alonso back on the field!
Patrick Mazeicka slumping – Nothing major but he’s definitely slowed down.
Nabil Crismatt back with power – After I complained about a lack of strikeouts his last two outings have boasted a K/9 over 9.0, I’ll be quiet now.
Marcos Molina makes his debut – Talented Met prospect off to a smooth start for the Mets in Port St. Lucie.
A: Columbia Fireflies
Desmond Lindsay an absolute void – I have nothing good to say.
Thomas Szapucki yet to play in 2017
Jordan Humphreys is rolling – Another quality outing and you wonder when a promotion might be in order.
Merandy Gonzalez looks good as the #2 – He hasn’t been as impressive as Humphreys but he’s been pretty darn sharp.
Andres Gimenez, what we know so far – He can hit, a .272 average isn’t great but it’s fine. We only wish he could walk or had some power.
Explain this: “Conlon profiles as something more than a Robert Gsellman but certainly something less than any of the Met Aces.”
Gsellman has mid 90’s #3/4 type raw stuff….Conlon is throwing Invisible 88 mph fastballs to AA Guys, Conlon’s repertoire is virtually Non Projectable….however, the results do suggest more chances as he goes forward.
Getting from an underpowered Mix to Jamie Moyer status is a rough projection for a 23 year old AA Junker—and I’d love to see him do it!
He’s older than Gsellman…. pitching at a lesser level….. and The Gzellman has real stuff….. I don’t believe you can project “something better than Gsellmen..” for Conlon—but I’d like that!!!
correction—i believe Conlon is actually 3-4 months younger than The Gazelle
Never seen him pitch and don’t know what kind of stuff he has, but just looking at stats, he looks like what Montero was 3-4 years ago.
The reason that he could be better than Gsellman? That walk rate is elite. Career 1.4 BB/9. When Montero was a highly rated prospect, he was in the 1.6-1.7 range. If Conlon can continue his strike throwing abilites (unlike Montero whose control just up and disappeared), that’s going to translate into results.
Some interesting stuff going on with Desmond.
In 80 PA in his home park, he has a .108/.263/.123 line for a .386 OPS
In 65 PA in road parks, he has a .781 OPS
Against LHP, the righty batting Desmond is 3-40.
Last night he had a double and the two games before then, he drew two walks apiece.
At this point, all we can do is hope that he stays on the field and gets much-needed experience.
Belfast is in Northern Ireland, not Ireland, and is part of the UK
Name===Montero’s Control didn’t “just up and disappear”. First and foremost, MLB Hitters beat him up, and he’s now afraid to Throw Strikes—and with some good reason! he doesn;t have the stuff to get them out!
The good thing about a Junker???? The Guy has never been overpowering…if his brain and movement and location works,,,,it works! It takes all 3 at 88mph. It doesn’t drive many chances.
Eraff, couple of things:
1) While I am not particularly high on Conlon, he is a LHP and there is a history of the “soft-tossing” lefty experiencing MLB success that eludes a similar makeup in a RHP. I can’t explain it. In addition, since MLB is seeing more power pitchers than ever before, more guys who can bring it at 94+, I think there’s a corresponding opportunity for the junkballer. After a while, hitters will be cool with 94 MPH heat; it will be the rare junkballer who gives them fits. So all that said, I’m not ruling Conlon out just yet.
2) On Montero, yes, absolutely. He didn’t magically “lose” his control; he stopped throwing strikes. A difference. And, more importantly, ML hitters do not go out of the zone on his stuff. There’s not enough deception, not enough late break. It’s why it’s silly to wait for a talented prospect to be “ready” for the MLB. There’s no “ready.” There are lessons that can only be learned at the highest level. (OTOH, I guess there’s a clearly “not ready” phase, which is another odd distinction I’m not ready to parse today.)
I will say this about Montero — and I know he’s been awful, borderline clueless — I still feel like there’s something there. If I was a GM for another team, I’d grab him the minute he becomes available. A fresh start, maybe he helps somebody down the line.
I’m not dismissing Conlon!… I am challenging the breezy assumption by the OP that he slots between Gsellman and “the big pitchers”— That’s a Huge assumption!!!
On Montero— he needs other voices and a willingness to try New Things. Throwing Strikes, Position on Rubber, etc. I’m closer to imagining him “becoming” Dave Stewart versus Conlon “becoming” Jamie Moyer.
BTW—I still believe in Kevin Plawecki—and I cannot defend it!!!