With the draft later today we’re going to look at some of the names that the Mets might be looking at in the draft with their 20th pick. Let’s take a peek at who the experts think the Mets are likely to draft:
- Baseball America – Trevor Rogers: A left handed pitcher out of highschool Rogers doesn’t have a high velocity offering which leads me to feel that he’s not going to actually be on the Mets agenda. He does rank 25th overall on MLB.com but a lefty who sits in the low 90s isn’t that special as draft targets go.
- CBS Sports – Keston Hiura: A right handed outfielder/second base combo out of UC Irvine. Hiura’s hitting is definitely something that draws the eye. He isn’t a huge guy so you’d hope he might be able to play second base long term. Unfortunately he’s also a guy who comes with a healthy amount of injury risk. He’d be ranked far higher than 22nd on MLB.com if not for that injury risk.
- Bleacher Report – Nate Pearson: MLB.com only ranks Pearson at 35th despite the right handed pitcher hitting 102 MPH on the radar gun. Pearson does fit the mold of Met pitchers as Sandy Alderson could be looking to begin cultivating a new generation of fireballers for the future. He also comes with some injury risk as he’s already pitching with a screw in his elbow.
- com – Nick Pratto: Why would the Mets be drafting a firstbaseman? Well, Pratto ranks 13th overall in MLB.com’s rankings and I believe the thinking with this mock was that the Mets could not pass on Pratto’s bat to draft a position they need more. Pratto is a high school lefty and his hitting tools are among the best in the draft.
Now for a few names that I think the Mets will be looking at:
- Jake Burger – MLB.com ranks Burger 16th overall. This right handed third baseman comes from Missouri State and is the best third baseman in the draft (according to MLB.com). While not a natural fielder his contact and power are going to earn him passage to the majors and his defense is said to be “good enough”.
- David Peterson – Ranked 19th overall, he’s a left handed pitcher who can hit the mid-high 90s and back that up with a solid breaking ball arsenal. He’s a college pitcher who doesn’t have any obvious flaws. The Mets could do worse than to take a player who profiles as a top of the rotation lefty.
- Tanner Houck – While nothing is going to scream on paper about this right handed pitcher, he does fit the Met mold. He pitches in the mid-high 90s, he’s a big guy and he generates strikeouts. Scouts don’t love his arm angle and the Mets might not want a guy who could turn into a project but he’s got the chops to be a front-end starter. For what it is worth, MLB.com ranks Houck 20th overall.
- Hans Crouse – Ranked at 31st overall you might think that Crouse is a stretch but like Pearson, Houck and Peterson he fits the “typical” mold of what the Mets have made their successful starters from. What makes this right hander even more interesting is that being from high school he could technically ratchet his fastball up even farther,
AAA: Las Vegas 51s
Amed Rosario levels off – It’s been a few weeks since Rosario was really crushing things in AAA.
Dominic Smith striking out more – He’s still hitting but he has an uncharacteristic 11 strikeouts in the last 10 games.
Gavin Cecchini still not impressing – Sure he hit .270 over the past 10 games but is that impressive in Las Vegas.
Rafael Montero is the best pitcher left in Vegas – Take that for what it is worth.
AA: Binghamton Rumble Ponies
P.J. Conlon gets by – Certainly not as smooth sailing as earlier but still putting together decent outings.
Chris Flexen says “AA, no problem!” – His first start after his promotion went very well and the team will hope for more from him.
David Thompson keeps at it – He’s hit .300 over his last 10 games. He has to make up for a dismal start to his season.
Tomas Nido still hitting – He may never be more than a backup catcher with some pop but, backup catchers have value too.
A+: Port St. Lucie Mets
Justin Dunn finally looks like a prospect – His first start back from the bullpen and we hope this means he’s turned a corner.
Wuilmer Becerra hitting and striking out – While he does these things in equal proportions we won’t get too excited.
Peter Alonso struggles – He’s coming off an injury and doesn’t seem to be having much success after skipping Columbia.
Patrick Mazeicka slumping badly – He’s only hit .216 over the past 10 games.
Jhoan Urena is probably a prospect again – He’s only 22 and he’s been the hitting star for the Port St. Lucie Mets.
Nabil Crismatt pitching well consistently – Consistency is the name of the game and Crismatt has proven he is more than a match for A+.
Marcos Molina heating up – He’s found his groove and is pitching like a front-end starter.
A: Columbia Fireflies
Desmond Lindsay we’ve missed you! – He’s hit .344 with 3 home runs over his last 10 games. It’s about time!
Thomas Szapucki Getting himself together – He doesn’t look like his 2016 self yet, but he’s pitching.
Jordan Humphreys disappoints us? – He gives up 1 run and only strikes out 4. If you can’t tell… I was being sarcastic. This guy has just been phenomenal!
Merandy Gonzalez keeping pace – The Mets are likely to keep Gonzalez and Humphries together when it comes time for mid-season promotions.
Michael Paez needs to be promoted – He’s hitting but he’s too old for Columbia.
Very encouraged by Molina.
Want to see those Columbia pitchers do it in St. Lucie before I get too hopeful.
You are 100% right about SAL vs. FSL.
Jordan Humphreys seems like he’s been too good to flop after a promotion but the difference is pretty big.
I’m hoping Szapucki gets rolling again. Would make me feel very good about the Met farm system.
Szapucki looked good when I saw him — liked the velocity — his success wasn’t all deception and left-handedness.
Haven’t seen Humphreys.
Thank you for including the draft section.
It’s very important to have these “in the moment” views of who the club is interested in, especially from those sources who speak to scouts and club executives, like BA, Law and Sickels. Generally, I don’t view scouts as important as many others do but the one place I would make an exception is with the amateur draft, where their importance is king.
Let me use Austin Beck as an example, because he’s the son of a friend of a friend. I’ve heard news that the A’s are interested in him as high as #6 and I saw one mock have him go as low as 26. But not once have I heard the Mets connected to him.
If the Mets pass on him and he turns into a stud — he can’t be used as an example of a guy that the club whiffed on. It’s like everyone pointing out that they passed on Jose Fernandez. Has there ever been a credible source saying he was under heavy consideration for their pick?
If the Mets have a choice of Pratto and Rogers and the one they didn’t pick becomes a big star – by all means criticize them. But the decision isn’t their pick versus the field. It’s the half dozen people they were seriously considering.
The first 25 games of the season, Mazeika was on a tear.
Since May 7, a span covering 29 games and 127 PA, he has a .248/.354/.321 line. The 13 BB/12 Ks is very encouraging and I think he’s a better hitter for AVG than what he’s shown lately. But that’s an extended stretch with very little power.
The overall numbers are still very good. But I’m still not buying.
MLB.com’s latest mock has picks by both Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo. Both guys have the Mets going with Pearson.
Callis also mentions Alex Lange and D.L. Hall while Mayo lists Lange and Tristen Lutz.
Keith Law has the Mets taking Lange and writes, “The Mets have been attached to a few college bats, though I think they would take Lange or Nate Pearson over Logan Warmoth if all three players are available here.”
I’d be happy with most of them.
Warmoth is probably the one I wouldn’t want.
Off-topic: But first, apologies for Dave. I’ve had this random thought for a few days and nowhere to go with it. So I’ll put it right here for you all to ignore.
Anyway, now with the new intentional walk rules, I realized that a pitcher could theoretically throw a one-pitch inning and, ultimately, a nine-pitch game (assuming he’d be able to go the distance in today’s pampered climate).
First two batters every inning: IBB (no pitches). Just wave ’em to first.
Third batter: Triple play (in a wide variety of ways).
A bold strategy, no doubt.
At the end of the game, the pitcher would have an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 2.00. His K:BB ratio would be the infinity, hurtling like a comet in the wrong direction. And he’s probably be able to make the next start on short rest. Only 9 pitches!
It would also be impressive for a pitcher to walk 18 batters while only throwing a total of 9 pitches — and every one a strike.
Before the new rule, the old most-efficient game would have been 27 pitches.
Something new to shoot for.
Carry on!
Jimmy P,
You’ve got to much time on your hands——but, you missed it! IBB each batter and then pick them off—-no pitches thrown!
Hysterical
Brian, you have Low Regard for scouts…except during the Minor League Draft?
Isn’t advance scouting a big part of Team prep for series and for Trades? …in addition to Drafting and International FA signings, it seems that the individual and systematic method of organizing player profiles would be pretty important as an organizational function.
Really, I’m just asking to bounce the idea around— of all the team functions, it’s the one I have no real contact or knowledge about.
No, I didn’t say low regard. I said lower than most people. Because people don’t fully understand what scouts do, I think people prescribe them with some mythical status. If the majority of people value them head high, I’m chest high. I’m certainly not looking underneath my foot at them.
I see scouting under the umbrella of player evaluation, which far exceeds the responsibilities of the draft. I feel one very important aspect of that is evaluating and understanding your own players. Look at the Rosario decision, for one obvious example. A season hangs in the balance.
That’s just one aspect of what they do.
Scouts are hugely important, IMO.
But we live in a world where the blogosphere is littered with self-proclaimed minor league “experts” who exclusively read box scores and opine about players. And some of that is valid and useful: pulling the stats together to create a picture. But it’s not scouting.
Peterson it is. I like the pick.
He had some cartoon numbers at Oregon this year.
In John Manuel’s last mock for BA, he had him going at #17. Keith Law had him going #16 but didn’t particularly like him. On the show, former Rockies GM Dan O’Dowd kind of trashed the pick.
Thought it was interesting that a lot of the guys speculated by the big boys were available but the Mets went in this direction.
From BA:
Peterson has improved his fastball velocity (up to 94 mph early in games) and command this season. He pitches at around 91 mph. His quieter delivery features better direction to the plate this year and a bit more deception, eliciting swings-and-misses from his fastball. His slider earns plus grades from some scouts, and at times he’ll back-foot righthanded hitters with it all night until they adjust. Then he can locate an average curveball to mix things up, and scouts like his above-average changeup, though he doesn’t use it much.
Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/mlb-2017-draft-tracker-a/#MgxmigJWCCEoKxCF.99
I was asked who, of my thoughts would be my top choice and Peterson was the guy. Ultimately, I hope to get the chance to scout Peterson in Brooklyn later this summer.
This is from http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/5/3/15529394/2017-mlb-draft-profile-david-peterson-lhp-oregon
“Sure, it’s enticing that Peterson has become one of the best strikeout artists in the entire nation, as pointed out in this “Kings of the K” piece. He strikes out 12.76 per nine, ninth best in DI and his 107 strikeouts are tied for second.
Most impressive? Peterson has walked six batters. That’s a number that relievers who have pitched half of the innings Peterson has envy. 107-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio. You can fake a lot of things as a pitcher. Command of the strike zone isn’t the easiest one to do.
Peterson’s 17.83 strikeout-to-walk ratio leads DI.”
A mature lefty strikeout pitcher with control and who has shown an ability to learn and apply it. He sounds too good to be true.
Day 2 Targets:
Evan Skoug – College catcher with a lefty bat and solid offense.
Jake Thompson – RHP with 94-96 MPH (control issues)
KJ Harrison – College catcher whose power numbers dipped this past year
Will Gaddis – Solid pitcher without overpowering stuff
Bryce Montez de Oca – Fireballer who may wind up in relief.
Mets select Brodey Quinn who doesn’t sound like much of a prospect on paper.
Fringy defense and inconsistent offense.
Under slot signee, wink wink. They need the money elsewhere.
Tony Dibrell – Solid 4th round pick. Has good velocity and should be ready to join Peterson in Brooklyn.
Matt Winaker – Mediocre OF bat out of Standford. His numbers went up significantly in 2017.
Marcel Renteria – Decent strikeouts hint at power but his high ERA and WHIP don’t inspire great confidence.
Conner O’Neil – Good numbers. Still searching for better scouting. College pitcher.
David, great job keeping an eye on these happenings for us. Thank you.