Mets360 Draft series: The 2007 MLB Draft

For the first time in this Mets360 series, it feels like bWAR numbers are not reflective of a draft’s impact. The 2007 edition does not have anyone from its top 100 with a career bWAR over 40 (each of the previous two drafts had three), but it features multiple Cy Young Award winners and MVPs among a host of established MLB stars. With some in the group just beginning to gain traction among the game’s elite, the best may still be yet to come for the 2007 draft.

The most recent MLB season had fingerprints from the 2007 draft’s top 100 all over it. Giancarlo Stanton, who went by Mike when chosen 76th by the Florida Marlins that year, was named NL MVP on the strength of a 59-homer campaign. The guy who went two picks later – Freddie Freeman by the Atlanta Braves – ranked sixth in the NL with a .586 slugging percentage last year. Both Stanton and Freeman were drafted out of high school in 2007 and are just 28.

Another player drafted out of high school early in the 2007 draft was Mike Moustakas, who seemed to hit his stride with a career-high 38 homers in 2017. Moustakas, who went second overall to the Royals in ’07, had 81 homers in his first six seasons. Taken 94 selections later by Kansas City, Danny Duffy looks to be entering his reign as that organization’s ace.

Even pick No. 100 in 2007 – Steven Souza – clicked in 2017 with a 30-homer campaign as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays. Drafted out of high school by the Nationals in 2007, Souza will begin the 2018 campaign with 6.0 career bWAR – 4.2 of which came last year.

Here’s a look at the top 100 picks from 2007 in chronological order:

OvPck	Team	Signed	Name	WAR	Type
1	Devil Rays	Y	David Price	33.7	4Yr
2	Royals	Y	Mike Moustakas	11.4	HS
3	Cubs	Y	Josh Vitters	-1.3	HS
4	Pirates	Y	Daniel Moskos	0.3	4Yr
5	Orioles	Y	Matt Wieters	15.8	4Yr
6	Nationals	Y	Ross Detwiler	0.3	4Yr
7	Brewers	Y	Matt LaPorta	-0.9	4Yr
8	Rockies	Y	Casey Weathers		4Yr
9	Diamondbacks	Y	Jarrod Parker	6.1	HS
10	Giants	Y	Madison Bumgarner	32.6	HS
11	Mariners	Y	Phillippe Aumont	-0.6	HS
12	Marlins	Y	Matt Dominguez	0.6	HS
13	Indians	Y	Beau Mills		4Yr
14	Braves	Y	Jason Heyward	34.9	HS
15	Reds	Y	Devin Mesoraco	3.7	HS
16	Blue Jays via Rangers	Y	*Kevin Ahrens		HS
17	Rangers via Astros	Y	*Blake Beavan	1.5	HS
18	Cardinals	Y	Pete Kozma	-0.5	HS
19	Phillies	Y	Joe Savery	0	4Yr
20	Dodgers via Red Sox	Y	*Chris Withrow	1.5	HS
21	Blue Jays	Y	J.P. Arencibia	2.7	4Yr
22	Giants via Dodgers	Y	*Tim Alderson		HS
23	Padres	Y	Nick Schmidt		4Yr
24	Rangers via Angels	Y	*Michael Main		HS
25	White Sox	Y	Aaron Poreda	0.2	4Yr
26	Athletics	Y	James Simmons		4Yr
27	Tigers	Y	Rick Porcello	16.1	HS
28	Twins	Y	Ben Revere	6.2	HS
29	Giants via Mets	Y	*Wendell Fairley		HS
30	Yankees	Y	Andrew Brackman	0.1	4Yr
31	Nationals	Y	*Josh Smoker	-0.3	HS
32	Giants	Y	*Nick Noonan	-1.3	HS
33	Braves	Y	*Jon Gilmore		HS
34	Reds	Y	*Todd Frazier	22	4Yr
35	Rangers	Y	*Julio Borbon	1.8	4Yr
36	Cardinals	Y	*Clayton Mortensen	-0.5	4Yr
37	Phillies	Y	*Travis d’Arnaud	2	HS
38	Blue Jays	Y	*Brett Cecil	7.4	4Yr
39	Dodgers	Y	*James Adkins		4Yr
40	Padres	Y	*Kevin Kulbacki		4Yr
41	Athletics	Y	*Sean Doolittle	5.8	4Yr
42	Mets	Y	*Eddie Kunz	-0.2	4Yr
43	Giants	Y	*Jackson Williams	0.1	4Yr
44	Rangers	Y	*Neil Ramirez	0.4	HS
45	Blue Jays	Y	*Justin Jackson		HS
46	Padres	Y	*Drew Cumberland		HS
47	Mets	Y	*Nathan Vineyard		HS
48	Cubs	Y	*Josh Donaldson	37.3	4Yr
49	Nationals	Y	*Michael Burgess		HS
50	Diamondbacks	Y	*Wes Roemer		4Yr
51	Giants	Y	*Charlie Culberson	-0.9	HS
52	Mariners	Y	*Matt Mangini	-0.2	4Yr
53	Reds	Y	*Kyle Lotzkar
54	Rangers	Y	*Tommy Hunter	8.5	4Yr
55	Red Sox	Y	*Nick Hagadone	-0.2	4Yr
56	Blue Jays	Y	*Trystan Magnuson	-0.2	4Yr
57	Padres	Y	*Mitch Canham		4Yr
58	Angels	Y	*Jon Bachanov		HS
59	Athletics	Y	Corey Brown	0.4	4Yr
60	Tigers	Y	*Brandon Hamilton		HS
61	Diamondbacks	Y	*Ed Easley	-0.1	4Yr
62	Red Sox	N	*Ryan Dent		HS
63	Padres	Y	*Cory Luebke	2.2	4Yr
64	Padres	Y	*Danny Payne		4Yr
65	Devil Rays	Y	Will Kline		4Yr
66	Royals	Y	Sam Runion		HS
67	Nationals via Cubs	Y	*Jordan Zimmermann	21.6	4Yr
68	Pirates	Y	Duke Welker	0	4Yr
69	Braves via Orioles	N	*Josh Fields	1	4Yr
70	Nationals	Y	Jake Smolinksi	0.6	HS
71	Cardinals via Brewers	Y	*David Kopp		4Yr
72	Rockies	Y	Brian Rike		4Yr
73	Diamondbacks	Y	Barry Enright	-0.1	4Yr
74	Athletics via Giants	Y	*Grant Desme		4Yr
75	Mariners	Y	Denny Almonte		HS
76	Marlins	Y	Giancarlo Stanton	35.1	HS
77	Mets via Indians	Y	*Scott Moviel		HS
78	Braves	Y	Freddie Freeman	26.6	HS
79	Reds	Y	Zack Cozart	16.5	4Yr
80	Rangers	Y	Matt West	0.1	HS
81	Padres via Astros	Y	*Eric Sogard	5.6	4Yr
82	Cardinals	Y	Jess Todd	-0.4	4Yr
83	Phillies	Y	Travis Mattair		HS
84	Red Sox	N	Hunter Morris		HS
85	Blue Jays	Y	John Tolisano		HS
86	Dodgers	Y	Mike Watt		HS
87	Padres	Y	Brad Chalk		4Yr
88	Blue Jays via Angels	Y	*Eric Eiland		HS
89	White Sox	Y	Nevin Griffith		HS
90	Athletics	Y	Josh Horton		4Yr
91	Tigers	Y	Danny Worth	-0.7	4Yr
92	Twins	Y	Danny Rams		HS
93	Mets	Y	Brant Rustich		4Yr
94	Yankees	Y	Austin Romine	-2	HS
95	Devil Rays	Y	Nick Barnese		HS
96	Royals	Y	Danny Duffy	13.5	HS
97	Cubs	Y	Tony Thomas		4Yr
98	Pirates	Y	Brian Friday		4Yr
99	Mets via Orioles	Y	*Eric Niesen		4Yr
100	Nationals	Y	Steven Souza	6	HS

The top pick in the draft was lefty David Price, who paid dividends for Tampa Bay almost immediately. A polished pitcher who dominated collegiately at Vanderbilt, Price required just 19 minor league starts – winning 12 – before being summoned to the big club in 2008. He was trusted in big spots for the Devil Rays in the postseason that year and recorded a win and a save in the ALCS against Boston.

Price has finished at least second in AL Cy Young Award balloting three times, winning the award in 2012. He also can lay claim to two AL ERA titles and a strikeout crown, ranking as the best pitcher from draft’s top 100 in career bWAR with 33.7.

Right behind Price in that department is 10th overall pick Madison Bumgarner, who has accumulated 32.6 bWAR. Arguably more valuable than Price when you factor in the postseason, Bumgarner has won three World Series rings with the San Francisco Giants. In those series, he has gone 4-0 with a 0.25 ERA. That’s one run allowed in 36 World Series innings.

Thus far, the top producer in bWAR from the first 100 choices in 2007 is Josh Donaldson with a value of 37.3. Chosen 48th by the Chicago Cubs but traded to Oakland in the summer of 2008, Donaldson has received MVP votes following each of the last five seasons. He won the award in 2015 and finished fourth in balloting in both 2013 and 2016.

Stanton is second in bWAR followed by Jason Heyward, whose 34.9 career bWAR is bolstered by a defensive WAR value of 12.5. He has claimed five Gold Gloves in eight MLB seasons.

The top 10 in terms of bWAR is rounded out by Rick Porcello, who won a Cy Young Award with the Red Sox in 2016. Here’s how the list looks sorted by bWAR:

OvPck	Team	Signed	Name	WAR	Type
48	Cubs	Y	*Josh Donaldson	37.3	4Yr
76	Marlins	Y	Giancarlo Stanton	35.1	HS
14	Braves	Y	Jason Heyward	34.9	HS
1	Devil Rays	Y	David Price	33.7	4Yr
10	Giants	Y	Madison Bumgarner	32.6	HS
78	Braves	Y	Freddie Freeman	26.6	HS
34	Reds	Y	*Todd Frazier	22	4Yr
67	Nationals via Cubs	Y	*Jordan Zimmermann	21.6	4Yr
79	Reds	Y	Zack Cozart	16.5	4Yr
27	Tigers	Y	Rick Porcello	16.1	HS
5	Orioles	Y	Matt Wieters	15.8	4Yr
96	Royals	Y	Danny Duffy	13.5	HS
2	Royals	Y	Mike Moustakas	11.4	HS
54	Rangers	Y	*Tommy Hunter	8.5	4Yr
38	Blue Jays	Y	*Brett Cecil	7.4	4Yr
28	Twins	Y	Ben Revere	6.2	HS
9	Diamondbacks	Y	Jarrod Parker	6.1	HS
100	Nationals	Y	Steven Souza	6	HS
41	Athletics	Y	*Sean Doolittle	5.8	4Yr
81	Padres via Astros	Y	*Eric Sogard	5.6	4Yr
15	Reds	Y	Devin Mesoraco	3.7	HS
21	Blue Jays	Y	J.P. Arencibia	2.7	4Yr
63	Padres	Y	*Cory Luebke	2.2	4Yr
37	Phillies	Y	*Travis d’Arnaud	2	HS
35	Rangers	Y	*Julio Borbon	1.8	4Yr
17	Rangers via Astros	Y	*Blake Beavan	1.5	HS
20	Dodgers via Red Sox	Y	*Chris Withrow	1.5	HS
69	Braves via Orioles	N	*Josh Fields	1	4Yr
12	Marlins	Y	Matt Dominguez	0.6	HS
70	Nationals	Y	Jake Smolinksi	0.6	HS
44	Rangers	Y	*Neil Ramirez	0.4	HS
59	Athletics	Y	Corey Brown	0.4	4Yr
4	Pirates	Y	Daniel Moskos	0.3	4Yr
6	Nationals	Y	Ross Detwiler	0.3	4Yr
25	White Sox	Y	Aaron Poreda	0.2	4Yr
30	Yankees	Y	Andrew Brackman	0.1	4Yr
43	Giants	Y	*Jackson Williams	0.1	4Yr
80	Rangers	Y	Matt West	0.1	HS
19	Phillies	Y	Joe Savery	0	4Yr
68	Pirates	Y	Duke Welker	0	4Yr
61	Diamondbacks	Y	*Ed Easley	-0.1	4Yr
73	Diamondbacks	Y	Barry Enright	-0.1	4Yr
42	Mets	Y	*Eddie Kunz	-0.2	4Yr
52	Mariners	Y	*Matt Mangini	-0.2	4Yr
55	Red Sox	Y	*Nick Hagadone	-0.2	4Yr
56	Blue Jays	Y	*Trystan Magnuson	-0.2	4Yr
31	Nationals	Y	*Josh Smoker	-0.3	HS
82	Cardinals	Y	Jess Todd	-0.4	4Yr
18	Cardinals	Y	Pete Kozma	-0.5	HS
36	Cardinals	Y	*Clayton Mortensen	-0.5	4Yr
11	Mariners	Y	Phillippe Aumont	-0.6	HS
91	Tigers	Y	Danny Worth	-0.7	4Yr
7	Brewers	Y	Matt LaPorta	-0.9	4Yr
51	Giants	Y	*Charlie Culberson	-0.9	HS
3	Cubs	Y	Josh Vitters	-1.3	HS
32	Giants	Y	*Nick Noonan	-1.3	HS
94	Yankees	Y	Austin Romine	-2	HS
64	Padres	Y	*Danny Payne		4Yr
85	Blue Jays	Y	John Tolisano		HS
92	Twins	Y	Danny Rams		HS
8	Rockies	Y	Casey Weathers		4Yr
13	Indians	Y	Beau Mills		4Yr
16	Blue Jays via Rangers	Y	*Kevin Ahrens		HS
22	Giants via Dodgers	Y	*Tim Alderson		HS
23	Padres	Y	Nick Schmidt		4Yr
24	Rangers via Angels	Y	*Michael Main		HS
26	Athletics	Y	James Simmons		4Yr
29	Giants via Mets	Y	*Wendell Fairley		HS
33	Braves	Y	*Jon Gilmore		HS
39	Dodgers	Y	*James Adkins		4Yr
40	Padres	Y	*Kevin Kulbacki		4Yr
45	Blue Jays	Y	*Justin Jackson		HS
46	Padres	Y	*Drew Cumberland		HS
47	Mets	Y	*Nathan Vineyard		HS
49	Nationals	Y	*Michael Burgess		HS
50	Diamondbacks	Y	*Wes Roemer		4Yr
53	Reds	Y	*Kyle Lotzkar
57	Padres	Y	*Mitch Canham		4Yr
58	Angels	Y	*Jon Bachanov		HS
60	Tigers	Y	*Brandon Hamilton		HS
62	Red Sox	N	*Ryan Dent		HS
65	Devil Rays	Y	Will Kline		4Yr
66	Royals	Y	Sam Runion		HS
71	Cardinals via Brewers	Y	*David Kopp		4Yr
72	Rockies	Y	Brian Rike		4Yr
74	Athletics via Giants	Y	*Grant Desme		4Yr
75	Mariners	Y	Denny Almonte		HS
77	Mets via Indians	Y	*Scott Moviel		HS
83	Phillies	Y	Travis Mattair		HS
84	Red Sox	N	Hunter Morris		HS
86	Dodgers	Y	Mike Watt		HS
87	Padres	Y	Brad Chalk		4Yr
88	Blue Jays via Angels	Y	*Eric Eiland		HS
89	White Sox	Y	Nevin Griffith		HS
90	Athletics	Y	Josh Horton		4Yr
93	Mets	Y	Brant Rustich		4Yr
95	Devil Rays	Y	Nick Barnese		HS
97	Cubs	Y	Tony Thomas		4Yr
98	Pirates	Y	Brian Friday		4Yr
99	Mets via Orioles	Y	*Eric Niesen		4Yr

It unfortunately takes a lot of scrolling to find a Met in this table. Of the five Mets drafted among the top 100 in 2007, only Eddie Kunz made the majors and he produced a negative bWAR. On the bright side, the Mets have gotten all 2.0 of Travis d’Arnaud’s career bWAR and did recently sign Todd Frazier, who has produced the list’s seventh-highest value to date.

Including the selection of Frazier, who was a supplemental first-round pick, the Reds fared well in this draft with three of their four top-100 choices turning a positive bWAR. Zack Cozart, who went 79th overall, is coming off his best season in the majors. His .297 average and career-best 24 homers contributed to a 4.9 bWAR in 2017, elevating his career value in that category to 16.5. Devin Mesoraco, who was the Reds’ first pick (15th overall) in 2007, has produced 3.7 career bWAR.

Overall, 38 of the first 100 players taken in 2007 have managed a bWAR on the positive side. While only five players have recorded a career bWAR over 30, that number seems destined to rise considerably in the years to come.