Mets360 Draft series: The 2009 MLB Draft

Headlined by the best player of a generation, the 2009 draft has emerged as one of the best draft classes in the 21st century.

One of the most recognized faces in baseball today, Mike Trout already is a two-time MVP and five-time Silver Slugger. In six full seasons in the majors, Trout has finished no lower than fourth in AL MVP balloting while producing a career .976 OPS. His 55.2 career bWAR, which includes a pair of 10-win seasons, represents a value more than twice as high as the next guy drafted among 2009’s top 100. And that next guy is no slouch!

Curiously, however, Trout lasted until the 25th pick in 2009. Including the one who ultimately selected him, 22 teams pulled the trigger on other players. The Angels landed Trout only after they selected fellow high school outfielder Randall Grichuk with their first pick of the opening round. Grichuk, who was traded to the Cardinals before ascending to the major leagues, has a respectable 7.1 bWAR but probably himself wonders how he was off the board before Trout.

It’s hard to quibble with the Nationals selecting Stephen Strasburg with the first pick in the 2009 draft. Under the wing of boyhood idol and Hall of Famer Tony Gwynn at San Diego State University, Strasburg dominated in a junior season that featured a 13-1 record, 1.32 ERA and 195 strikeouts in 109 innings. It was a foregone conclusion that he would go No. 1.

Despite some injury problems, including “Tommy John” surgery early in his major league career, Strasburg has posted the best bWAR (24.8) among pitchers selected in 2009’s top 100. The Nationals were up again nine picks later and selected fellow college hurler Drew Storen, who has spent his entire career as a reliever and managed a 5.3 bWAR. He likely will miss the 2018 season following a “Tommy John” surgery of his own.

The Nationals were not the only franchise to pass on Trout multiple times, however. The Diamondbacks had back-to-back picks beginning with No. 16 and chose Bobby Borchering and A.J. Pollock. The latter has turned into a quality major leaguer, posting a career 18.2 bWAR to rank sixth among the draft’s top 100.

The last team who had a crack at Trout before the Angels’ consecutive picks was the White Sox, who went the outfielder route with Jared Mitchell at pick No. 23. Mitchell was one of two outfielders drafted ahead of Trout to never make the majors. The other was Donovan Tate, who was selected with the dreaded third overall pick by the Padres.

Here is a look at the top 100 picks from 2009 in chronological order:

Of first 15 picks, 13 have made the majors and nine have produced a positive bWAR. It turned out to be a trend for this draft as a whopping 63 percent of players drafted in the top 100 have appeared in the major leagues with 46 posting a bWAR greater than zero.

The best of the group not named Trout is third baseman Nolan Arenado, who lasted until the Rockies at the 59th pick. One of the game’s most well-rounded players, Arenado has three campaigns with at least 130 RBI and five Gold Gloves in as many major league seasons.
Another steal beyond the first round was fellow third baseman Kyle Seager, who has produced 26.8 bWAR since being the 82nd overall pick by the Mariners. With Seager and Dustin Ackley, who went second overall, Seattle drafted two of the top 10 players in terms of bWAR in 2009’s top 100.
Here’s a look at the top 100 sorted by bWAR:

The Mets only had one pick in the top 100 and chose Steven Matz at No. 72 out of nearby Stony Brook University. Matz has shown glimpses of being a front-line starter but had a 2017 to forget, posting a 6.08 ERA in 13 starts before undergoing elbow surgery.

Including Matz, the 2009 draft has produced 24 players to record a career bWAR of at least 4.0. The only draft in this series with more players at 4.0 bWAR or higher was 2008 with 27. Considering the series began with a 2000 draft that had only 11 players manage at least 4.0 bWAR, it could be perceived that scouting dramatically improved as the decade drew to a close. Of course, the 22 organizations that passed on Mike Trout might disagree.