The Mets currently sit at 33-34 and five and a half games back in the NL East race. This also puts them sixth in the Wild Card race as they are a half game back from today’s foe the Cardinals. While .500 can be used as a dividing line between contenders and rebuilders, this distinction ultimately depends on external factors. Nevertheless, let’s take a look at some historical dividing lines for teams competing before we talk about whether the Mets should be considering trading away chips.
At this point last year the Mets sat at 29-38 and amid a horrendous June slump. They actually had just won for only the second time during the month and got briefly within ten games of .500. It was still obvious that they would be sellers. In fact, less than a week later they traded Jeurys Familia.
These Mets may look to trade expiring contracts while they are playing generally well with Todd Frazier and Jason Vargas. Zack Wheeler could also be an option as he is still unsigned for next year, but what would it look like if the Mets held on to their pieces?
Fangraphs has the Mets at a 21.8% chance of making the playoffs. While this seems low it should be noted that at the same point (67 games) in 2015 they were only at 35.5%. Still it is disappointing to see their more inspiring preseason numbers (39.6%) dip down to this point, and it is one of the larger decreases in the National League.
There are plenty of examples of subpar teams making the playoffs. Last night the St. Louis Blues won the Stanley Cup despite being in dead-last place near the season halfway point. In recent years for baseball the following teams have made the playoffs despite low chances on June 13th: 2018 Atlanta (36.0%), 2015 NYM (35.5%), 2015 Texas (15.3%), 2018 Colorado (12.2%), 2017 Minnesota (11.5%), and finally last year’s Oakland team at a mere 5%. That is six of the last 40 playoff teams.
Last year the Nationals chose to sell at the deadline with still a 40.6% chance, which has not seemed to work out for them this season. However, this shouldn’t dissuade the Mets from selling when the time comes. As tough it might be to turn on preseason promises, the Mets may need to start considering their future.
But this time is not soon, and when looking back in previous years there seems to be no real reason to sell before the deadline. By then most playoff odds are either in the upper 90’s or practically zero. There are only a few teams on the bubble by that point, but just two weeks prior in recent years there have been 15 teams in the 30-60% range. While 21.8% is not the most confident percentage, it still is a very reasonable one, and the Mets still have a reasonable chance at the postseason.
So while it is fun to play GM and think of moves this team can make, this can wait until the end of July. Right now, let’s focus on cheering on the orange and blue.
They need to think or the future now. Wheeler should go and if somebody makes an offer for Vargas he should go too.
As usual the Mets are in, what I have called, “rebuilding for it” mode. They never commit to anything, but fence sit hoping external factors determine their outcome. As usual, this purgatory rarely has a chance to succeed, despite the brutal reality this team is only viewed as having playoff chops by die hard fans. BVW sold ownership on a mirage, leveraged out staggering money on ancient declining players and to prove a point will almost certainly do some sort of half baked “go for it” just to double down on the initial mirage, with a real chance to lose young talent we could use down the road.
Sitting till the all star break allows other sub .500 teams to hit the market before us.
Indecision seems to be as Wilponian as short sightedness and greed.
The Cano move —perhaps the promise of stealing away Yankee fans felt like a new Madoff promise.