Inside the Juan Lagares turn around

Back on January 5^th, the Mets traded for Brewer’s outfielder Keon Broxton in a trade that appeared to signal the end of the Mets’ second longest tenured player. Juan Lagares for seven seasons has been their right-handed defensive-minded outfielder, but this seventh and potential contract year for him was set to be his last. After years of injury and underperformance on offense the team looked to move on, and this was cemented by the addition of Broxton who had a similar profile.

As much as Lagares struggled in the first half (he was the worst player in the National League with a fWAR of -1.1), Broxton somehow performed worse and was released by the team in mid-May despite possessing tree more years of team control. Afterwards it was Lagares, playing on the final year of a 4-year $23.5 million extension, to hold down the 5^th outfielder spot on the team.

It was difficult to recall why the Mets had exactly rewarded Lagares with such a lucrative contract extension back on the eve of the 2015 season. Then he was a 25-year-old fresh off a gold glove 2014 campaign where he increased his batting average by nearly 40 points. In his rookie and less-injury restrained year he led the league in centerfield assists, and showed promise of being the team’s best home-grown centerfielder since Carlos Gomez.

But in 2019, it was an aging Gomez that took time away from Lagares in late-May. They continued to split center until Gomez’s release at the end of June.

Not only were Lagares’ hitting numbers down (.175/.242/.252 while striking out 30% of the time), his fielding was strangely normal. Playing deeper some balls fell in front of him, and many gappers fell just out of the reach of his glove. The numbers support this downfall as well, with him posting the worst UZR and DRS metrics of his career.

Since August 13^th he has started every game for the team, made some incredible plays in the outfield, and has swung a pretty good bat as well. Starting with that four-hit game in Atlanta on the 13^th he has gone 13/29 and given some tough at bats. His eight-pitch walk in the 7^th inning last night was an example of this.

As has been the case for all of Lagares’ hot streaks, this one has come with a high BABIP that would be impossible to maintain. However, there is one aspect of this streak that offers room for hope. Comparing his batting stance from May and now it appears Lagares is standing noticeably farther from the plate. He has had a pretty sharp eye for the outside part of the plate, and has been able to go opposite-field on some balls pitched to that side despite standing so far away. This adjustment to his stance could be another reason for his success, and the BABIP number is just a symptom of this better approach instead of a statistic of fortune.

The hits have been nice, but the defensive improvements are what might really help this team down the stretch. Playing shallower but still able to track down the deep fly balls, Lagares will hopefully provide some memorable plays as a defensive replacement once Jeff McNeil returns from the IL. It makes sense to put him in the game for JD Davis and have Michael Conforto or McNeil move over to left field.

Mets fans have always rooted for Lagares to be our everyday centerfielder. After showing time and time again his health and hitting could not justify that investment, it has been a shame to see a healthy year of his go along with worse defensive numbers. Now with bat and glove clicking it has been fun to watch. Let’s hope the stance change lets these hits keep falling and we see Lagares come through as so many players during this stretch.