Mets Minors: The difference between the upper and lower levels, Part II

Last month I analyzed the Met farm system and reviewed 10 case studies of starting pitchers who have recently risen through the ranks. This month we’ll be doing something similar for batting but we’re going to be handling things slightly differently this time around.  Instead of reviewing and analyzing case studies, we will review perception vs. reality when it comes to the various levels in the Mets system.

Perception

• International Rookie Leagues (DSL1/DSL2)
  • These leagues have players between the ages of 16 and 20 with a fairly low percentage of players eventually emerging as superstars. The Mets and other teams recruit many young players through these leagues but, usually, you only need to focus on the 1-5 players the team spent large amounts of money on.
  • Stats out of the DSL are wildly inconsistent (Vicente Lupo 2012) and often far overblown. There are some glimmers of information one can glean from these leagues if you look carefully. Typically power, especially one’s SLG+, cannot be faked. That being said, you need to take any stat from this level with a grain of salt.
• Domestic Rookie Leagues (GCL/APP)
  • Fielding players who have graduated from the DSL and high school athletes from recent drafts, the Rookie leagues are more about figuring out how to be a professional athlete than generating stats. With a typical age range of 18-22 these leagues are the most likely victims, should the MLB look to trim the minor league fat some day.
  • Stats out of these leagues are still hit or miss with some distinct exceptions. Age plays the biggest role in whether a player’s stats are meaningful with younger players facing more experienced minor league filler players right away.
• Low A Leagues (NYP/SAL)
  • The New York Penn League serves as both a rookie league for the top collegiate draftees and a proving ground for those coming up from the lower levels. Players typically fall between 19-22 years of age at this level with a high number of major league rehab assignments thanks to proximity to the major league club (for Brooklyn).
  • In both the NYP and SAL leagues, pitchers enjoy a healthy advantage over hitters who find their power numbers hurt by some of the more “difficult hitting ballparks” in the minors. Pitcher success at these levels can sometimes be blown out of proportion as well.
• Advanced A (FSL)
  • Some people claim that the Advanced A is where the minors really begins. From here on up, success at a level can exponentially indicate that a player is likely to make and succeed upon reaching the majors. Players are typically between 21-23 years old at this league.
  • While not the “Pitcher’s Heaven” that Low A gets a reputation for, Port St. Lucie does still seem to dampen the offensive numbers from some players who pass through its ranks. It also seems that some players who only manage to “survive” at this level are able to prove themselves late on and make names for themselves.
• Double and Triple A (EAS/INT)
  • The top levels of the minors become harder for me to prove my points as the Mets recently moved from an extremely hitter friendly league (The PCL) to their current home in Syracuse. Players at these levels are typically between 22-27 years old.
  • The perception that Double A sees an offensive bump is built partially on the fact that pitching seems to get the edge for the three levels immediately preceding it. You also find that many teams field major league backup squads of aging major league talent in their Triple A affiliates which badly skews some of the numbers. Regardless, it seems that a player has to prove themselves in Binghamton to have much of a chance in the majors.

 Reality

• International Rookie Leagues (DSL1/DSL2)
  • The exception that proves the rule might be Andres Gimenez. In 2016 (at the age of 17) he managed a batting line of .350/.469/.523 in 62 games with the two DSL clubs. These outstanding numbers earned him a promotion straight to the SAL where he managed to make good on much of the promise these outrageous numbers hinted at.
  • Recently, many of the Top International Mets signees have been skipping these leagues altogether and Freddy Valdez saw a midseason promotion after 57 games with a .268/.358/.432 batting line. Similar to Adrian Hernandez who posted .261/.351/.386 before having his 2019 season in the GCL cut short.
  • It would seem that the Mets are equally dubious about the numbers that come out of these lowest leagues, preferring to get their biggest investment players experience in the Domestic Rookie Leagues as quickly as possible. With no 2020 season you can expect Alexander Ramirez to skip these leagues in his 2021 Mets debut.
• Domestic Rookie Leagues (GCL/APP)
  • There seem to be two divergent stories that emerge from the GCL and APP. One, is the case where young players are exposed early to these leagues and demonstrate success. The other is when more seasoned international players feast on young and inexperienced pitchers to pad their stats.
  • The most recent and painful example of the former is Jarred Kelenic who slashed a .286/.371/.468 in 56 combined games of 2018. By his side were, Ronny Mauricio .273/.304/.410 and Francisco Alvarez .282/.407/.510 and while Kelenic is gone, the latter two have entrenched themselves into the Top 10 of Met prospects.
  • The other side of this is players you aren’t so likely to hear from again after their mirage success in the APP. Players like Jose Miguel Medina, Edgardo Fermin and Juan Uriarte. I think the exception to this rule has been Wagner LaGrange, who seems to be developing into a viable major league bench player.
• Low A Leagues (NYP/SAL)
  • The pitcher dominance of this league has diminished now that the Mets no longer play their home games in Savannah. Back in the day the numbers out of the pitchers from this league made just about everyone look great and might be the reason the Mets didn’t make more out of a talented pitcher like Collin McHugh. Focusing on the hitting, it is still not common for a player to demonstrate success in these leagues.
  • Dominic Smith only managed .271/.344/.338 in the SAL, Gimenez had a .265/.346/.349 and Rosario only managed a combined .274/.320/.372 between the NYP and SAL in 2014.
  • Breaking this mold seems to be power hitters. If you consider the cases of Michael Conforto or Pete Alonso you see Conforto breaking out a .331/.403/.448 and Alonso who managed a .321/.382/.587 in Brooklyn. Proving that offensive numbers in the NYP are certainly possible and shattering the myth that both leagues are “pitcher friendly”.
• Advanced A (FSL)
  • Some of the hitting challenges of the SAL seem to always continue into the FSL. Players aren’t quick to evolve into their successful forms here but you will see some sort of uptick from those who will eventually make it into the major leagues.
  • Gimenez showed a bit of a breakout back in 2018 when he came out with a .282/.348/.432 slash line. Unlike some of my other examples, he seemed to backslide after his promotion.
  • The case that best illustrates the suggestion that Advanced A gives hitters a small bump in Smith who begins to shake off those hitting cobwebs from the Low A Leagues and sees his OPS reach .771 for the season.
  • The one consistent truth of this league seems to be that if you don’t make it here, you aren’t likely to go far beyond it. Some players, like Desmond Lindsay are case in point.
• Double and Triple A (EAS/INT)
  • The numbers in AAA are truly hard to judge but one thing that a lot of folks will notice is that some players really see a big boost when they hit Binghamton and some seem to stall.
  • If you had asked me before 2020 to illustrate a case where these leagues gave us the impression a player would exceed their capabilities I might have pointed back to Smith, who continued his uptick in performance into both AA and AAA but staggered when he first reached the majors. After his 2020 it is hard to look at the AA and AAA numbers and say they were much of an aberration.
  • It still seems that these leagues, AA in particular, are truly the best guide to major league success that you will get in the minors. Especially now that the Mets no longer send their AAA players to Las Vegas and the PCL.

In conclusion, my stat analysis didn’t debunk too many of my preconceptions about the leagues.  I certainly over-estimated the pitching success of the NYP but my overall statements looked to have held up. Looking at all of this It does seem that there are several leagues that could be condensed and gotten rid of but I’ll never vote in favor of removing minor league teams. Minor League baseball is a joy to watch and fans of these local teams truly enjoy the games they get to watch.