Francisco Alvarez and the All-Star 2021 St. Lucie Mets

With the condensed minor league system going into 2021 and having lost out on the 2020 minor league season, the lowest level of full season baseball should be stacked with talent. Fourteen of the Mets Top 30 Prospects could find themselves starting their 2021 season playing for the St. Lucie Mets. The old saying goes, “Don’t put all your eggs in one basket.” Which may leave the Mets with a dilemma as almost half of their best and brightest may be heading for the same team. With Spring Training rapidly approaching we will dive into the minor league All Star squad that the Mets might be fielding in only a few short months.

Francisco Alvarez, C (#2 Prospect): The highest ranked Met prospect on Baseball America’s Top 100, Alvarez has a small chance of starting his season in the Rookie GCL but those chances are pretty small, so long as he is healthy. In 2020 it seemed likely that Alvarez would be headed for Brooklyn with a small chance of him beginning the season with the Columbia Fireflies.Since the Mets folded the Kingsport Mets and condensed their teams, it seems likely that Alvarez is headed to Florida to headline the offense, instead.

Scouts grade Alvarez well on both sides of the ball. He grades as having Plus Contact and Arm Strength while grading well on Fielding and Power. It has been suggested that he could be ready for a major league debut as early as 2023 (which might be a bit early based on catcher progression) and is the early favorite to take the #1 prospect slot moving forward.

Brett Baty, 3B (#3 Prospect): There might be an argument for Baty to begin his year in Brooklyn (Advanced A) instead of St. Lucie but with Mark Vientos standing in his way, that will be hard to accomplish. Brett “The Met” will instead remain at the potent heart of a lineup with Alvarez.

With Alvarez getting so much buzz it’s perhaps too easy to forget that Baty got two mid-season promotions in his debut into professional baseball. Baty’s 51 games between the GCL, APP and NYP (Playoffs) show the profile of a power hitting corner infielder who needs to work on his swing and miss numbers. (In 42 games in Kingsport, he struck out 56 times) Having Alvarez either before him or after him in a lineup is likely to keep pitchers attacking the strike zone.

Matthew Allan, RHP (#4 Prospect): This article will not get into MLB.com’s questionable numbering for the Top 5 prospects. Allan is considered the top prospect by some and might find himself reaching for a quick mid-season promotion based on expectations. The best pitcher in the Mets farm system only has 10.1 innings in the minors and a lot of weight on his shoulders now that Josh Wolf is gone. Scouts see Allan as a front-end starter who could be a #1 or #2 down the road. Pitching as the Ace of the St. Lucie Mets could be a good way to start heading down that road in 2021.

Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF (#5 Prospect): Having yet to play a single minor league season, the soon to be 19 year old could very easily begin his year in the Gulf Coast League. Conventional wisdom would have the Mets take things slowly with him but the heart and head arguments tend to go to the heart. Expect the Mets to have Crow-Armstrong starting his year in Port St. Lucie despite his age and lack of experience. That being said, a lot of things will be strange in this very unique 2021 season. Ultimately the Mets have two young center fielders in their depth charts and Alexander Ramirez seems far more likely to play in Rookie league.

J.T. Ginn, RHP (#6 Prospect): Alongside Crow-Armstrong, Ginn has no minor league experience but unlike Pete, he’s a college product and will be 22 by the end of the 2021 season. That means Ginn would be pegged for Full Season baseball regardless of the 2020 pandemic. Ginn is coming off injury but should be ready to begin the 2021 season once minor league games kick off. He profiles as a front-end starter but many scouts are wary of a pitcher coming off an injury.

Junior Santos, RHP (#9 Prospect): Junior Santos began his Met career at the age of 16 in the DSL and played for Kingsport back in 2019. His numbers were not phenomenal as his WHIP ballooned to 1.746 but scouts think enough of his raw stuff to see him turning that around. Santos seems like a safe pick to begin the 2021 season in Low-A instead of Rookie league and would possibly put three of the top four Met pitchers on the same team. (Only Thomas Szapucki, who is projected in AAA, doesn’t project to start for the St. Lucie squad)

Robert Dominguez, RHP (#11 Prospect): The chances of Dominguez beginning his season with the Port St. Lucie team are pretty low. He is older for an international signee but the 19 year old’s 100 MPH fastball is at least unlikely to begin his year in the DSL. The only reason a pitcher like Dominguez is on a list like this is the unknown aspects of the lost 2020 season combining with the loss of two minor league teams. The Mets have enough talented pitchers to round out the Low A rotation without complicating things by adding Dominguez into the mix.

Alexander Ramirez, OF (#13 Prospect): The second prospect with little chance of making this very talented squad is Ramirez. Now that he is 18 years old I would expect him to play stateside for the GCL Mets. The Mets look at Ramirez as a natural center fielder and that should keep he and Crow-Armstrong from landing at the same minor league level.

Freddy Valdez, OF (#14 Prospect): Valdez played most of his 2019 season in the DSL with three games stateside. His chances of joining the Port St. Lucie Mets are higher than Dominguez or Ramirez but hardly offer odds to bet on. The fact that the Mets have Spring Training in the same facility as their Full Season Low-A and their GCL squad, makes anything possible with some of these younger prospects. Ultimately, Valdez waiting for playing time might be the reason he winds up beginning the year in Low-A.

Joshua Cornielly, RHP (#15 Prospect): Unlike most of the players on this list, Cornielly has most of a GCL season under his belt and is 20 years old. Because there is no longer an APP or NYP to shuffle prospects between the Mets might actually be forced to have Cornielly begin his year pitching with Brooklyn. The reality of the 2021 season is that a number of players will be finding themselves with odd assignments.

Jaylen Palmer, SS (#16 Prospect): With the hype surrounding Andres Gimenez and Ronny Mauricio, Palmer got lost in the shuffle. Palmer has surprising power for his position and grades as a solid defender. He wound up playing third base thanks to Mauricio but should be given the starting shortstop job for the Full Season Port St. Lucie squad.

Jordany Ventura, RHP (#19 Prospect): Physically, Ventura is a little small for your typical starting pitcher but six foot even isn’t “short” by any means. He’s got some life to his fastball and some room to grow into his frame but projects to little more than a back-end rotation member or a member of the bullpen.

Jose Butto, RHP (#24 Prospect): I think Butto is ranked by MLB.com lower than he should be. Butto has a solid repertoire of pitches and has already gotten full season league experience. Because of that experience I actually have him beginning his season in Advanced A but it’s possible he could be held back to start the year instead.

Joander Suarez, RHP (#25 Prospect): Suarez is a fringy prospect who could still progress into a major league talent but doesn’t seem to be a “likely” success story. He has the makeup to change that perception with a strong season and should be rounding out an exceptionally talented starting rotation.

Adrian Hernandez, OF (Not Rated): One player who MLB.com took a complete snooze on was Adrian Hernandez. Most pundits rank Hernandez in the Mets top 20 prospects. He could begin the year in rookie league but it seems such a waste to hold off on these talented players after a lost season. Hernandez in particular seems like he could develop into a major league asset and might benefit from being surrounded by this very talented club.

Ultimately, 11 of the players mentioned seem like they are headed to the Mets Low-A affiliate with no other team garnering even a fraction of this overall potential. It is possible the Mets could assign these players in various different ways, being more aggressive or conservative with their assignments. The fact that both the Rookie and Low-A squads will be playing from the Port St. Lucie facility means that the Mets could have any number of their talented youngsters make an appearance after spring training. In the end, we all just want to see minor league baseball games start to get played once again.