Marcus Stroman or Noah Syndergaard: Who should the Mets extend?

Last week Sandy Alderson was interviewed with regard to Francisco Lindor’s extension. Alderson offered that the Mets will start extension talks soon concerning not just Lindor, but Michael Conforto and Noah Syndergaard as well. Because we have learned that Alderson’s messages are often brutally honest (like the “what outfield? We will build a wall behind the infield” comment a few years back when acknowledging the Mets didn’t have a competitive MLB outfield in their depth chart), we need to listen and hear what he isn’t telling us as well as what he is. This appears ominous for Marcus Stroman’s chances at an extension with the Mets as Alderson was not even asked about Conforto or Syndergaard, only Lindor. But, Alderson took it upon himself to offer extra information and that information omitted a rather high profile name.

Here is the signed starting pitching depth the Mets have going forward:

2021: Jacob deGrom, Carlos Corrasco, Stroman, Taijuan Walker, Syndergaard, David Peterson, Joey Lucchesi, Thomas Szapucki, Sam McWilliams

2022: deGrom, Carrasco, Walker, Peterson, Lucchesi, Szapucki, McWilliams

2023: Corrasco, Peterson, Lucchesi, Szapucki, McWilliams, prospects
Note: both Walker and deGrom have player options to leave after the 2022 season, so they aren’t a “sure thing” in 2023. Also, 2023 is the last year of Corrasco’s contract which he will pitch in its entirety as a 36 year old.

Since Mets ownership isn’t looking to spend like drunken sailors, it’s not expected that they will sign all of their free agents, so they need to pick who they will allocate their monies to and that certainly includes each player’s demands. In this exercise we will use comparables to forecast Syndergaard’s and Stroman’s expected demands, and muse at who will give the Mets a better bang for their buck while also heeding the need to keep other important players in the future.

The Tale of the Tape

Stroman will be 30 years old on May 1st and chose to opt out of 2020 due to family considerations after he accrued enough days on the Injured List to qualify for a full season’s worth of playing time. [Very hard to believe the players that stuck it out and played the year under the difficulties of COVID protocols and Coronavirus dangers didn’t notice that.] In 2016-2019 his fWAR was 3.3, 3.4, 1.4, 3.9, respectively, his FIP was 3.71, 3.90, 3.91, and 3.72, respectively, and his exit velocities were 90.4, 88.7, 89.4, and 88.2. The low fWAR in 2018 was affected in part by a lower K/9 from his usual mid 7’s to 6.77, and an uptick in BB/9 from his usual 2-something to 3.17.

Syndergaard will be 29 years old on August 29th and did not pitch in 2020 due to recovering from elbow surgery in March 2020, but his fWAR for 2016-2019 was 6.0, 1.4, 4.2, 4.4, respectively, his FIP was 2.29, 1.31, 2.80, 3.60, respectively, and his exit velocities were 87.6, 86.7, 85.8, 86.8. It is important to note that Syndergaard suffered a lat injury 30 innings into his 2017 season and had accumulated 1.4 fWAR already, so that was a 8+ fWAR pace shown by his eye popping 1.31 FIP. Upon returning from the lat injury though, his K/9 was down a full percentage from 10.68 and 10.09 pre-injury to 9.04 and 9.20 post-injury.

Let’s get some comps:

Patrick Corbin – following the 2018 season Corbin was 29 ½ years old and came off fWAR seasons of: 0.7, 3.0, 5.9. He was the best free agent starting pitcher available in the 2018-19 off-season and he is a lefty. Corbin’s FIP was 4.84, 4.08, and 2.47 and the corresponding exit velocities were 89.9, 87.9, and 88.3. Too, his K/9 was 7.57, 8.45, and 11.07 his last three years in Arizona. He got 6/$140 Million from the Nationals or $23.6 Million per year.

Garrit Cole – following the 2019 season, the 29 year-old and came off fWAR seasons of 3.4 with Pittsburgh and 5.9 and 7.3 with Houston. As the Astros changed Cole’s mindset about pitching by throwing less fastballs and more of his elite offspeed stuff, the Pittsburgh numbers were not significant in baseball decision makers’ minds. For example, his K/9 went from 7.60 and 8.69 his last two years in Pittsburgh to 12.40 and 13.82 his two years in Houston. Cole’s FIP was 4.08, 2.70, and 2.64 and his exit velocities were 86.3, 89.1, and 87.6 in years 2017-2019, respectively. Cole received 9/$324 Million from the Yankees, or $36 Million per year.

Stephen Strasburg – following the 2019 season, the 31 ½ year old Boras client opt-ed out of his remaining contract to negotiate a new one. Before I give you his stats, his new contract was for 7/$245 Million or $35 Million per year. It’s good to put Strasburg here to compare his stats to Cole’s when seeing their similar annual salaries. From 2012-2019, Strasburg had fWAR of 4.0, 3.3, 4.5, 3.5 (injured: only pitched 127 innings), 4.0, 5.9, 2.4, and 5.6. He had FIP of 2.82, 3.21, 2.94, 2.81, 2.92, 2.72, 3.62, and 3.25. His exit velo for his 2014-2019 seasons (not recorded pre-2014) was 88.4, 87.6, 87.3, 89.2, and 87.9), and his K/9 was 11.13, 9.39, 10.13, 10.96, 11.15, 10.47, 10.80, and 10.81. While we all can admire Strasburg’s consistently elite performance, the new analytically driven front offices probably would not give another seven year contract at the age of 32.

Zack Wheeler – the 28 ½ year old ex-Met received 5/$118 Million from the Phillies. The Phillies were impressed by Wheeler’s post-TJ surgery fWAR of 4.2 and 4.7 in 2018 and 2019, but obviously the Mets weren’t too impressed. The Phillies also noticed his 3.25 and 3.48 FIP during those years in addition to exit velo of 86.1 and 87.0 while seeing a 8.84 and 8.96 K/9 as opposed to the 2.71 and 2.30 BB/9; the Mets never bothered looking at that. So, without even making an offer, they wished Wheeler well in Philadelphia. How grand.

We will not examine any other free agents in this time period because they all have other factors involved in their signing. For instance, Hyun Jin Ryu signed for 4/$80 Million as a 32 ½ year old in Toronto early in the 2019 signing period after just one strong season in Los Angeles. Too, Dallas Keuchel signed for 3/$55.5 Million early in the same period in Chicago as a 32 year old. But, these were both lefties and influenced by different circumstances; Keuchel sat as a free agent until June the year before and Ryu was the first “big name” to accept Toronto’s offer that year and Toronto usually has trouble signing big free agents. Too, they are both lefties. As we can see looking at the different offseasons, elite pitching isn’t usually available and it is expensive when it is.

Back to Syndergaard and Stroman, two righties in their late 20’s approaching free agency. I would say that Stroman compares rather favorably to Wheeler, while Syndergaard compares rather favorably to Strasburg. Too, we need to remember that Max Scherzer is a free agent after this season. You don’t think Washington is looking at Syndergaard the way they looked at Scherzer as a 28 ½ year old following the 2014 season? Can you imagine Syndergaard wearing a W? But, if you have four starters under contract for 2022, you need to renew Conforto, Lindor, Nimmo and probably re-sign your best pitcher, can you afford that? If Stroman will save you over $10 Million a year, do you not look in that direction? However, if you want the better starter, it appears Syndergaard is the pick.

For the Mets, it may make sense to wait them out into free agency and see where their markets and their performances are after not pitching for over a year as I do not see either pitcher being the type of personality that will take a penny less than they believe they can get. On the other hand, if I’m wrong and either pitcher is willing to accept less risk and sign now at a lesser rate to hedge the risk of lesser performance or injury, maybe you sign them now. Either way, it makes business sense to negotiate with both starting pitchers and I am very surprised that Alderson seemingly “has an ax to grind” with Stroman. Too, if Cohen really wants to be the Dodgers, not only should he sign the better pitcher but how about signing both? Injuries do happen.

Acknowledging what you know but planning for flexibility and the things you don’t know, is it better to have the stronger rotation by signing Syndergaard and Stroman and letting Conforto go, or are you better off keeping Conforto and only signing one of the two to give you money for Nimmo and deGrom next year? Depending on what you see out of Guillorme and Davis, do you let Conforto go and put McNeil in right field? You’re the GM, good luck.