In a few short hours, the Steve Cohen led New York Mets will take the field and *finally* launch an historic beginning for the franchise, hopefully. Expecting to be writing this article with the first series of the year in our pocket, already with 2 HR for Pete Alonso and 5 RBI for Lindor, the crushing uneasiness of reality rapidly swept in as a reminder that things are definitely not yet near normal. As fan bases already are celebrating or booing, the Mets already find themselves 1.5 games back without having taken a single at bat – and a fan base lost in the weeds having heard the starting gun go off, but found no one at the game. Regardless, much like every season, Mets fans have already christened the team as likely NL East champions with something on the order of 90-94 wins depending on who is talking.
Although the team only had 90 wins in a season one time in recent memory, it is worth exploring where these wins would need to come from, particularly in the context what team the Mets would need to leap in order to win the NL East. For this exercise, let’s assume the Mets are a real contender for the pennant, and that the main competition is, not surprisingly, Atlanta. In a position-by-position showdown, I think Atlanta – regrettably – has a better squad, so the task to win the East will not come easy. This article is focused on seeing where the Mets might pick up the wins needed to go from a mid 80s-win club, to a 90+ win club using a five-year record comparison with the Braves. As the title says, this road almost certainly drives through South Beach, but before getting there let’s explore the records out of the NL East.
As previously discussed, the Mets commonly have a notoriously slow start each season in the first 60 games, a topic that goes less noticed than the infamous “June swoon,” but provides the template for a tough June and lead-in to the All Star break. The first thought would be “play better” early in the season, although that misses an important aspect of early season games: many come facing the NL Central and NL West. In my previous article, Name commented on the potential of the Central and West as the cause for the poor starts to seasons, so I wanted to see how the Mets’ and the Braves’ records compare. Is this where the Braves make distance from the Mets?
To test this possibility, I compared the records of the Mets and Braves versus each team in the Central and West in the 2015 through 2019 seasons (5 years) to see what could be learned.
In this stretch, the Mets have a 76-88 record against the Central (46% win percentage) and a 79-87 record against the West (48% win percentage). The record meets the eye test. Across this time frame, the Mets have a winning record only against the Reds in the Central (whom they own and beat to clinch the 2015 NL East Pennant). Unfortunately, the Reds record is balanced with the Cubs, against which the Mets are an appalling 7-24 (excluding playoffs in 2015). I expected the Braves to show separation from the Mets in the Central, but this really isn’t the case. The Braves have a 79-89 (47% win percentage) record, with one-game over .500 records against the Brewers and Pirates. Head-to-head, the Mets and Braves are similar.
Heading to the NL West, the news isn’t that much different. We all recall suffering through unreal bad games against bad Padres teams, although the complete picture is better than I expected. The 79 win, 87 loss regular-season record translates to a 48% win percentage; the Mets are a grim 11-23 against the Dodgers and have a winning record only against the Giants. The Braves faired a little worse with a 74-92 record (10-21 against the Dodgers). Compiling the records against the Central and West, the Mets are 155-175, while the Braves are a quite similar 153-181. Neither team shines. The Braves do not win the NL East by piling up wins outside the East.
The most direct way for the Mets to gain on the Braves would be winning more head-to-head games. Across the 2015-1019 season the Mets are 46-56 (45% winning percentage), which is disappointing but better than I feared it might be buoyed by winning records in 2015 and 2017. For the Mets to overtake the Braves and win the East, they need to win more against the Braves. Beyond being “Capitan Obvious,” the Nats are the Nats, and the Mets have a put the hurt on the Phillies during this time window. That leaves one team left to consider: the Miami Marlins.
Against the Marlins, the Mets have a pretty good record at 55-40 (57.9% win percentage), but the Braves are an astounding 61-33 (64.9% win percentage). Although the Marlins have not been in last place every year, they have not had a single >.500 season from 2015-2019. The plain fact is that in order for the Mets to have a serious chance at the pennant, they need to beat the Marlins at a higher rate than average, coupled with more wins versus Atlanta. Naturally, wins are wins, and maybe the Mets make up ground against the Braves by well outcompeting them in the Central and West, but there is a long-term pattern that would need to be broken. To my eyes – and now confirmed via this study – the Mets have underperformed against a mediocre Marlins club over the years, while the Braves have taken a “no prisoners” approach. I’d like to see 2021 be the season that changes the Mets performance against the Marlins dramatically as a major path to 90 or more victories.
The Braves and Marlins have never gotten along well which gives extra juice to beating them, going back to when Fredi Gonzalez managed the Braves after being fired by the Marlins, and now he’s back as a coach in Miami. Unfortunately, the Mets have no such motivation as Hensley Ramirez and Dan Uggla aren’t there any more but neither are the players that would know what I’m referring to.
Well, the Braves got swept in Philadelphia, Ozuna is back to his normal self and the Philly bullpen is much improved. I still think the Braves aren’t world beaters and there’s more to worry about in Philadelphia than we realize.
As I pointed out in a recent post casting doubt on a 90-win season, I think .500 (38-38) is a safe assumption in the NL East. That leaves only 86 games against the rest of the league, from which the Mets would need to go 52-34 (.600 winning %) to reach 90 wins. This very appreciated article helps us ask the question, against whom will the Mets win all these games? Certainly the Dodgers, Padres, Cubs, Cards, and Yankees will be formidable, and very hard to dominate.
Unless the Mets break the mold and do very well against the NL East, unless they gut out each rubber game in a series and even sweep a few, 90 wins is beyond logic. If it truly is a new team with a new culture, all things are possible… I completely agree that a great season all rests on beating the Braves and Marlins, both a hefty challenge.
Wobbit – your comment the other day put a smile on my face. I had been compiling the data for this article and by then was pretty sure Miami was certainly at the heart of the issue. Lets file this under “great minds think alike”!!
🙂
Very thoughtful column, Chris.
It helps if you do well against the teams you play the most. But I wouldn’t single out the Braves and Marlins over the Phillies and Nats in this respect. For years, the Mets won the season series against the Phillies and then in 2019 they went 7-12 against them. If they won that series by the 11-8 margin they did in 2018 (when they went 77-85) – the Mets would have won 90 games and made the playoffs.
This is an interesting article. The first thing that struck me was the records against the Marlins showed the Braves with a 6.5 Game advantage over the Mets over a five year span – or just over a game a year.
The second thing is that the Braves really were only a good team for the last two of those five years. Over those five years, the Mets were actually a composite 15.5 games ahead of the Braves, or 22 games over against all opponents other than the Marlins.
It would be interesting to see which team the Braves fans would target for an article like this. Perhaps the Phillies?
I’m concerned that every NL East tam has a reason for believing the Mets are beatable.
Phillies already showed it in game #1 this year, but the difference last year was undoubtably Jean Segura, whom the Mets absolutely could not get out.
The same can be said for Juan Soto and the Nats infamous 6-run comeback the ninth inning.
The Marlins have their tough outs, but they seem to perk up when the Mets come to town… Berti, Alfaro, Aguilar, Rojas…
And the Braves have a host of players who seem to feast on Mets pitching when it matters most.
Unless the Mets come up with a clear and winnable game plan as to how to attack the key hitters in the opposition’s lineups, we will continue to have our hearts broken when it counts. Aaron Loup’s ridiculous first two pitches to Harper yesterday were an indication they do not. Very lucky Didi’s blast did not leave the yard…