Despite a pretty crazy beginning to the season with missed games from the pandemic to the usual weather-related catastrophes, the Mets have played about 1/6th of the season. For me, each month of the season is a big deal, so taking stock of where the team is at right now is worth a look, and see if there is anything we might learn from recent full seasons as the calendar shifted to May. It usually takes about 60 games for the small-numbers game to work itself out into a more predictable pattern about “who the team is,” but lacking a ton of inspiration from this incarnation of the Mets (aside from Jacob deGrom that is!), it seemed a worthy investigation.
The benchmark for comparing any recent version of the Mets is the 2015 NL Championship season (90 wins). Because the one-game “play-in” games seem to count for post-season play to some, the 2016 season (87 wins) also counts as worthy of benchmarking against. Is there a pattern that might show up?
After tonight’s familiar stomach-churning performance by Edwin Diaz, that nearly sank a four-run lead in the ninth inning, the Mets have clawed their way back to .500 and a share of first place with the Nationals. All things considered, an even record after the games we have seen has to be a positive note, perhaps even something to launch the rest of the season from. Apparently, the NL East isn’t quite the division prognosticators imagined.
In the 2015 and 2016 seasons, when the Mets played post-season baseball, their winning percentage was well over .600 (.640 in 2015, .667 in 2016). In 2018, they were 6 over .500 on May 2, but that lagged well behind the ’15 and ’16 seasons; otherwise, they played about .500 ball or worse. With a comparatively fewer number of games played this season, we see a team sitting at winning percentage well behind the playoff seasons. Sure it’s early and there is a lot of baseball left to be played, but at one-month in, there is reason to be concerned. What is up?
The inventory of concerns is significant. Multiple things are hurting the team, with one of the most surprising being the offense, or lack thereof. One of the things standing out – besides the abject disappointment of the scoring with RISP situation – the scoring inconsistency per game is utterly frustrating. So far the Mets have played 171 innings (22 games) and scored in 42 of them or only about 25 %. Looking to the class of the National League, the Dodgers scored in 42 innings by the fifth inning of their 14th game, some 8 games ahead of the Mets. Not only is there a dearth of runs coming across the plate, there simply is no habit of scoring. That has to change.
As a baseball fan that focuses almost all of my viewing on the Mets, I often wonder if it is “normal” for teams to go on extended dry spells, the o-fer run. It seems the Mets, even with a lineup we all expect production from, have these long spells of offensive nothingness, often against mediocre pitching. This numbers support it so far this season, but this has seemed to be a way of life for a long time. Maybe it’s modern baseball, the long ball or bust, but regardless it is a relative performance not against days past but against others now.
Anyhow, Diaz is the usual concern, but my gut tells me that there will be competition for the closer role and his leash is much shorter than in 2019 or 2020. There was a recent comment wondering if Lindor raised thoughts of Baerga or Alomar…I though of those guys the minute this deal went down, more so out of superstition as they were older players. It looks like Lindor is not just in a slump, he looks completely lost, kind of like the boxer that dominated every match and then got dropped unexpectedly. At this point, I fear more of a Beltran year 1, almost an entire season of underperformance. It is rare but it does happen. But, in today’s digital and hyper-focused and obsessed environment, the damage of that type of season can be long lasting, for the player and the team. It sure is nice to make $363 million, but it does carry a burden as well.
I share TJ’s concern about Lindor. Could it be that the Cleveland front office had seen enough evidence of his offensive decline to give up on him, even as he was entering his peak years. I thought it was a rude move toward his new team for Lindor to give the contract ultimatum in spring training. Someone confident in his ability might not have done that. Whereas someone afraid of a drop-off of skills wants to cash in “now”.
I’m afraid that Mr. Smiles will be an ironic anti-hero if he can’t significantly raise the level of his offense, lock down completely the infield defense (he’s the team’s leader), and start looking more serious for business rather than just enjoying the party… that happy-go-lucky persona only gets one so far in NYC… not an especially easy place for the film-flam man.