Editor’s Note – This was written several days ago but I was late in posting it. Some of the names mentioned made sense at the time it was written but due to the delay that may no longer be the case.
On Wednesday, MLBTradeRumors.com published its Early-June edition of the Top 40 MLB trade candidates. While everyone will feel that a team can always improve itself, the question is just how aggressive should the Mets be due to their injuries and their holes. The Mets are expecting many talented players to come back from injury – and those are like free agent additions due to their sudden inclusion – but no one knows how long these players will be out and how long they will need to get back into top shape.
Undoubtedly, the most expensive position to fill talent-wise and the highest in demand at the trade deadline is front-line starting pitching, but the Mets really don’t need that. They may need a starting pitcher for depth, but that depends on how the injured players are progressing. Further, the Mets do not want to deplete their minor leagues so it would be safe to say that they would rather take a larger contract without surrendering talent.
Currently, according to spotrac.com, the Mets have just over $11 Million of space available before hitting the Luxury Tax threshold. That can be quite a bit to add a player or two in late July and have him for the second half of the year with all the doubleheaders scheduled and the stretch run starting in late August. So, let’s see the names looking to be available, and I will add a few names not on MLBTR’s list that I expect to be available.
To start with, this isn’t a very sexy list. The top of the list has Jon Gray and Trevor Story, but the Mets don’t really need either as both players’ positions are already filled. After skipping a corner outfielder like Mitch Haniger, our first stop of interest is in lefthanders Matthew Boyd of the Tigers and Tyler Anderson of the Pirates. Who? Exactly. Both are pitching for last place teams and these are players that have not been very consistent or hurt quite a bit (Anderson). Boyd has an extra year of control and a new changeup to combat right handed hitters, and with Aaron Loup being the only lefty in the bullpen the Mets appear to need someone to help out there. What would these players cost in talent? Probably a Jaylen Palmer, a Freddie Valdez or a Robert Dominguez and a lesser prospect. Would you do it? Towards the end of the list, MLBTR has John Means of the Orioles, Danny Duffy of the Royals, and Madison Bumgarner of the Diamondbacks as the only other lefties on their list of Top-40. I don’t really like any of these guys for the cost, but would Josh Hader be worth the cost? Certainly, the Brewers have been trying to move him for years but they want a heavy cost, possibly three top prospects at least. I would expect many teams to be in on Hader but only one will dig deep to make that move and I’d bet on it being the Braves that have a deep system and a huge need in the bullpen.
Moving down the list, Michael A. Taylor catches the eye. With the Mets still without Nimmo and not having any idea how long he needs, would they roll with Albert Almora or Kevin Pillar as their starter? Taylor is close to Almora as a defender but is better as a hitter. Taylor is better than Pillar defensively, but Pillar would edge him offensively. Would you part with a couple of secondary pitching prospects for Taylor like Dominguez, Junior Santos, Richard Brito, Jose Butto, or Sammy Tavarez? Do you need Taylor enough?
Lastly, the list includes Diamondbacks Asdrubal Cabrera and Eduardo Escobar who can both play third base and second base. Both are about average defensively at third base with Cabrera having the better hitting profile. Would you give the Diamondbacks a few of the pitchers listed in the Taylor paragraph above for one of these guys? How much of an improvement are they over Jonathan Villar?
Now, a couple of names off the list. One such player is Kyle Seagar. Seagar is a third baseman in the last year of his contract in Seattle. He is hitting .218 with a .717 OPS, 10 homeruns and is hitting over .400 with RISP. Further, we must consider that his $22 Million team option becomes a player option for the 33 year old. Would you part with Vientos? How about Palmer and an arm? I’m passing again.
The second “off the list” name that could be available is Jose Quintana. His 7.22 ERA is pretty scary and so is the shoulder inflammation he is currently on the IL with. But, if he were to come back healthy, he is having a career best 13.37 K/9 year but is suffering a .400 BABIP. His LOB% is a career low 59%. I like this player to fill a few needs for the Mets with potential to be very good if his percentages normalize. The Angels would want a lottery ticket for him, like Santos, Butto, Michael Otanez, Brito, or maybe Jake Mangum. Quintana is a rental for the remainder of the year which will pay him $8 Million, but if the Angels were to take a player that I could live with losing, I’d take the chance.
Boyd would be a great get and provide some rotation insurance for next season.
What if the Tigers tell you they want Baty?
I’d counter with Vientos
No on Michael Taylor, Yes on Starling Marte (long term)
No on Astrubal Cabrera… Yes on Escobar (long term)
Almora already a moot point… McKinney, Fargas, Williams.
Gray No. Need a lefty.
Bumgartner No… can’t pitch anymore.
Tyler Anderson No… one Oregon Duck is plenty.
Fix Peterson.
Editor’s Note – Do not capitalize words in your post
Kyle Seager is an interesting thought if only because he’s a highly durable player. Since his debut in 2011 he has only missed significant time for injury in 2019. He’s played 9 full seasons (including the short one last year) and 8/9 years he’s played in 150+ games. Oh, and he’s played every game for the M’s this year as well.
So… i wonder if the M’s would be open to taking him back for Cano + a decent prospect. He’s due from the Mets $40.5m in 22-23 and Seager if traded has a player option for $20m + the prorated $18.5m this year. So the overall dollars isn’t that far off, but they would see better cash flow for 2021 if they want to have some relief right now.
Or, you just let Seagar walk and save the money unless the Mets make you another offer you just can’t believe…
A guy can dream of how to get rid of Cano, right? 🙂
Maybe they’d like to offload Yusei Kikuchi’s contract as well, but he’s pitched much better this year than the last 2. And if the M’s need another body we can swap Lucchesi for him.
So Seager + Kikuchi for Cano + prospect.
Or another possibility is taking on the dead Paxton money for even more financial relief in 2021. Seager + Paxton for Cano + prospect.
The Met needs at this point are based purely on injury status, how recoveries are projected, and who else if any gets hurt before the deadline.
Boyd may be the only guy above that interests me, but the price is usually too high for these types of starters. Name’s Seattle swap would be of benefit but I don’t see how the Mariners would be interested. A decent pen lefty is another area to pursue, but again the cost could be excessive. My guess at this point is that the Mets most likely don’t make an upgrade deal…they may actually spin off a guy that becomes “extra” when the injured players return.
It is certainly time to begin these conversations Gus. My instinct says run to starting pitching.
I think between those coming back and the placeholder bench mob, Im all good woth position players and depth. I know Name mentioned Kyle Seager, but Cano has a full no-trade clause Im pretty sure. No one will pay him and he wont leave.
Peterson is due for a month or more in the minors. He was accelerated out of AA, made a small splash, but has reality staring him – and the Mets – in the face.
Chris, all three paragraphs have merit but Name’s point is for short term financial benefit. Still, DiPoto suckered the Mets good and I don’t think his team would want to take a headache back when they can just let Seagar leave and save a cool $22 mil…. unless the prospect the Mets give is too good to pass up, and let’s not even kid about that.
It’s not likely that the Mets can afford an A+ player at 3B and in CF.
So it makes sense to determine which player is more valuable: Kris Bryant or Starling Marte. Marte may become available for the remainder of this year soon, and if the Cubs have given up on keeping Bryant, he also can wear the Mets uniform this year. Deciding which of the two (or any such payer you’d prefer to speculate about) will benefit the team and be a sure thing to lock up in a deal should determine what to do in almost all other trades.
If they want Marte to solve the outfield question, and he would do so even better than George Springer would have, then we juggle the current crop of outfielders indefinitely. If we want Bryant to solve the 3B dilemma, we trade JD with a decent prospect, or maybe Nimmo, Dom, or some other permutation to the Cubs. Either Bryant or Marte would make the Mets extremely formidable in the post-season.
With Carrasco and Thor coming back, I don’t see paying too much for a bottom-end starter… fill holes with AAA starters and think longer term for acquisitions..
With the Cubs in strong contention, it’s hard to extract such a good player. Marte is an interesting thought, but how much better than Nimmo is he really?
Right now the Mets need is a 4th starting pitcher type and Jon Gray or Matthew Boyd would be good depth piece because of the injuries to Carrasco, Syndergaard, and even Yamamoto. Both are pitching better than Peterson or Lucchesi right now but they aren’t necessarily better than them in the long run. Gray or Boyd are just a short term insurance policy that would help the immediate situation.
Yup…
That’s why I proposed Quintana. A buy low type that shouldn’t cost alot and I believe can help the immediate situation. Quintana is on the 10 day IL, but two days ago he threw a bullpen and it went well. He is expected to be activated and go back into their rotation. I’d have a scout there…
deGrom, Stroman and Walker ans pray for rain. Numbers four and five have been bad. Cant rely on Syndergaard coming back or even Carrasco. I like Boyd to be number four.
Brian, is it permissible to post something from another site? If so, this is from Fansided:
“Here are a couple numbers that show just how good Nimmo has been in recent seasons:
Nimmo is one of 12 players to post multiple 140 wRC+ seasons over the last three years. The other 11 players are Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon (3) and Alex Bregman, Christian Yelich, George Springer, Jose Ramirez, Juan Soto, Manny Machado, Mookie Betts, Nelson Cruz and Paul Goldschmidt.
Nimmo is one of 31 players to produce two qualified seasons with total production worth at least four WAR per 162 games in the last three seasons. The only players who have accumulated three such seasons in that span are Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Michael Brantley, Freddie Freeman, Yasmani Grandal, Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, J.T. Realmuto, Anthony Rendon, Mike Trout, Trea Turner and Trevor Story.”
I thought this was worth considering since trading Nimmo is often suggested by other Mets’ fans.
I’ve never understood those on this site that undervalue Nimmo. The stats show his value as an offensive player, particularly in the leadoff spot and he’s a home grown talent with a great attitude and work ethic. The haters have always baffled me. I hope he gets extended.
Just to be clear. I love Nimmo; love the kid and his game. But there’s a point when his actual value needs to be seen objectively. Decent hitter, good on-base guy, decent speed, no base stealer, average outfielder, weak arm, high strikeout rate, a tad on the streaky side, oft-injured, potentially career-threatening nerve issues.
Love him all you want, but at some point, we need an outfielder… I’m fine if it’s Nimmo, but if it can’t be Nimmo, I’m ready to jump.
Over the last three years before this year, even missing a most of one year, Nimmo is top 20 in fWAR (Fangraphs). For the last two prior years, Nimmo is 14th. He’s recognized as a good contributor.
I hesitate to chime in as the market’s not going to develop for another month and so much can change between now and then. By the end of June, we’ll have a better feel for injury return timelines for Carrasco and Nimmo. I think we can live with one of Peterson/Luchessi in the rotation, but not both, particularly with all the double headers coming up. I’ve always like Quintana. Great stuff and always surprised he hasn’t put up better numbers. By the end of June, we’ll also have a better idea of what teams are gonna be sellers. Not a ton of talent on the last place teams other than Ketel Marte who’d be very expensive in trade. Starling Marte would be cheaper. With Conforto likely coming back in 2 or 3 weeks, I can live with Pillar/Almora in center with McKinney filling in off the bench. FWIW, Bartolo Colon is pitching well in the Mexican league.