Mets Minors: Francisco Alvarez’ early promotion

The Mets promoted their Top Prospect (depending on rankings) from Low to Advanced A on May 25th placing their 19 year old catching prospect, Francisco Alvarez, in their most talented lineup with Ronny Mauricio, Brett Baty, Adrian Hernandez and Luke Ritter. Alvarez had been destroying the pitchers in Florida and had quickly proved himself more than a match for the level. The move also sends Heyden Senger, a player rapidly rising through the Top 50 list up to AA as the Mets hope to add some offense to the struggling Rumble Ponies.

The promotion of Alvarez is not surprising, given his success, but it certainly has a ripple effect across the organization. Should Alvarez continue to play well in 2021 he is likely to begin the 2022 season with the AA affiliate in Binghamton. This means that James McCann’s contract looks to have been made for the perfect period of time to have the Mets develop his replacement. Alvarez will be sniffing the majors as early as late season 2022 with a starting role possible as early as 2023.

Recently, Alvarez drew comparisons to Yadier Molina, one of the best baseball players in his generation and (in this writer’s opinion) a potential hall of famer. On the hitting side of the ball, fans have already seen the stats to suggest his bright future. What might be more exciting, is that Alvarez has gotten positive reviews for pitch calling and framing as well as his general sound defense. That being said, he has surrendered a number of stolen bases this season.

Since the promotion, his batting average and on base percentage have both been dinged but his slugging has gone up. You can chalk this up to learning new pitchers (ones who have more advanced breaking balls) and having additional protection around him.

AAA: Syracuse Mets
The Big Story: The Mets Depth Deserves Credit
Mets depth has been the story of their 2021 season. With injuries to Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Carlos Carrasco, Taijuan Walker, Seth Lugo, Drew Smith, Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeill, J.D. Davis, Kevin Pillar, Albert Almora and Jose Martinez the Mets have wound up with a cavalcade of Syracuse players appearing in the majors.

If and when the Mets are actually fully healthy (which may not happen in 2021) the AAA Mets will appear to be a different team as they’ve had most of their ranks pulled for service in Queens. While there isn’t much prospect buzz from the upper minors, the Mets did a good job of stocking talent to be prepared for the injuries they’ve suffered in their season.

Other News:
● Khalil Lee, CF: The Mets are starting to get some of their injured players back from the IL and Lee is able to return to AAA where he can hopefully learn how to get himself on base with some consistency.
● David Thompson, 1B: Former prospect, Thompson, has fallen off the radar for lackluster play over the past several seasons. 2021 has been a good year for the first baseman who might see time in the majors should we see another injury to Pete Alonso.
● Thomas Szapucki, LHP: Still healthy and working his way deeper and deeper into games, Szapucki may have too many people between him and the majors for 2021 but could be looked at as part of the starting pitching plan for 2022. His game on 6/9 was not a pretty affair and likely diminished him in the Mets eyes. With David Peterson struggling, he’s got a solid chance of seeing major league action.
● Franklyn Kilome, RHP: You couldn’t have much of a worse start to June than Kilome had. Giving up three walks and a hit in under an inning of work just looks bad for a pitcher who is known to have control problems. On top of all this, he’s on the 7-day IL.
● Tylor Megill, RHP: Megill earns his way onto the AAA roster. Two starts into being a AAA pitcher and Megill might have found his way into the Top 10 of the Mets organization. He is pitching wonderfully.
● Sam McWilliams, RHP: Nabbed by the San Diego Padres
● Stephen Nogosek, RHP: Nogosek has had an okay start to his year but isn’t popping off the charts regarding his peripherals. He looks like an MLB level relief pitcher but not a top one.
● Yennsy Diaz, RHP: The pitcher acquired in the offseason saw some limited MLB time and it didn’t go poorly. He’s been solid all year and seems like a viable bullpen piece moving forward.

AA: Binghamton Rumble Ponies
The Big Story: Hello Hayden Senger
You don’t typically talk about many 24 year old players drafted in the 24th round who began their season in Advanced A as “prospects”. Even with catchers, who take the longest time (typically) to develop, you’d expect someone who was 24 to be in AA or AAA. As part of Francisco Alvarez’s promotion, the Mets made a corresponding move in bringing Senger up to play with AA Binghamton.

In Advanced A, Senger was off to a strong start with a healthy .966 OPS over 11 games. Since his promotion to AA he’s managed and .831 OPS with a slightly higher batting average.

Senger rose 10 full ranking positions in the Mets360 Top 50 prospect list, landing at 38 and could continue a rocket-like climb with another month of solid play. It is early to start thinking about him making a major league impact but that sort of trajectory is back on the table and that is very exciting.

Other News:
● Mark Vientos, 3B: Vientos was out with an injury for a little bit but has been back in the lineup. The power has been showing itself this year but his batting average has suffered.
● Wagner Lagrange, RF: Needs to show something more than the ability to get on base. He is getting hits but he’s not showing much power or speed. He still looks like a 4th or 5th outfielder.
● Carlos Cortes, 2B/LF: The month of June has been good to Cortes who began the Month as one of the top performing minor league outfielders. One questions how sustainable this is. As a player without a ton of power or speed he is going to need to continue absurdly good play to make himself a possible major league starter.
● Luis Carpio, 2B/SS: The second baseman is looking more and more like a career minor leaguer. Recently, the infielder is certainly getting his base hits more regularly. He still has a future potential to gain a role as a backup middle infielder.
● Jake Mangum, OF: Most people did not expect Mangum’s powerful start to continue into the second month of the season but he’s getting a fair amount of extra base hits, even since his promotion.
● Hayden Senger, C: Seeing Senger swing you’d think his batting average would be lower. He looks like he’s trying to rip the ball out of the park each time he swings the bat. Somehow he’s making consistent contact and reaping the rewards.
● Jeremy Vasquez, 1B: It’s been a down year for Vasquez who is fading from prospect relevance.
● Yoel Romero, SS: Romero has had a strong season as Binghamton’s bats are starting to come alive. Where many Rumble Ponies have gotten a boost in June, Romero seems to be fading.
● Tony Dibrell, RHP: Dibrell had a real stinker on June 12th as he is left behind by Megill.

A+: Brooklyn Cyclones
The Big Story: Brett’s Bat Showing That Power
A month ago the complaint on Baty’s season was that he had not been hitting with much power. In the month of May he managed only 5 doubles and 0 home runs with a slugging percentage of .397 with otherwise stellar numbers. In the month of June those numbers have made a complete about face. In the first two months of June he has hit 3 2B and 5 HR.

All of this is coming with a continuance of striking out, the ability to take walks and a .333 batting average for the month. Mauricio has been playing well and Alvarez is flourishing after his promotion but Baty is making a strong case that perhaps he could also take the title of “Top Prospect”

Other News:
● Ronny Mauricio, SS: The season continues to go well for Mauricio but there is one element of his game that might cause him to slip from the Top Prospect slot. At this point in the season his strikeouts are a bit too high and he’s not showing much of an ability to take a walk. When compared to Alvarez and Baty, this may cause him to slip.
● Francisco Alvarez, C: Alvarez has looked pretty darned good defensively. This is a very good sign for the Mets who are hoping he’ll be ready to replace James McCann as early as 2023.
● Matt Allan, RHP: Out for Season after Tommy John surgery.
● Brett Baty, 3B: Could one make a case for Baty being the “Top Prospect”? With the three biggest names on the same roster it is very possible to see #3 surge to #1 in a short span of time.
● Scott Ota, RF: Injured since May
● Adrian Hernandez, OF: The season has not looked good for Hernandez who probably should have played in Port St. Lucie this season. He hasn’t seen game action since June 6th and might be headed for a lower level of play.
● Antoine Duplantis, OF: Yes, Duplantis can hit (at least a little). Can he steal bases? The Mets are not running much in general but this needs to become part of Duplantis’ game if he’s going to be relevant.
● Luke Ritter, 2B: As the season wears on his peripheral numbers begin to look less good.
● Joe Genord, 1B: Quietly, Genord is becoming mildly relevant as a second tier prospect. He has a fairly long way to go to be anything more than a name in the late part of the Top 50.
● Jose Butto, RHP: Probably the best prospect starter currently pitching for Brooklyn, Butto put together a great game on 6/13.

A: St. Lucie Mets
The Big Story: Where’s the Beef?
There are a number of prospects who just appear to be missing from this team. The Mets held a great number of bigger names for the GCL Mets of Rookie League and allowed the Mets of St. Lucie to flounder.

With limited locations for newly drafted players to play, it will be interesting to see how the Mets shuffle things around after the amateur draft.

Other News:
● Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF: Out for remainder of the season with torn labrum.
● Alex Ramirez, OF: With Crow-Armstrong out Ramirez is the lone offensive star of the Port St. Lucie squad. The highly touted international prospect has yet to show us much in the way of production.
● Shervyen Newton, SS: Add to his terrible batting average and insanely high strikeout rate that he is injured.
● Jaylen Palmer, SS/CF/DH: The batting stats are beginning to make the hopeful scouts lose faith in a once promising prospect.
● Warren Saunders, 1B: The most consistent hitter left in St. Lucie Saunders need to hit for more power.
● J.T. Ginn, RHP: Back on the mound for the first time in a long time, it would be absurd for fans not to expect a few minor bumps in the early going. He’s got two outings under his belt as he builds his endurance. One questions if the power numbers will ever improve.
● Willy Tavares, RHP: Not a great sign for Tavares to be switched into relief. He has been one of the better pitchers on the roster.
● Garrison Bryant, RHP: Injured since May.