Mets Minors: Organizational pitching depth looks weak

The Mets have the best pitcher in baseball, Jacob deGrom supported by Marcus Stroman and Taijuan Walker who are both looking like All Star caliber arms and the pitchers I’d rank as 2nd and 3rd best on the team, Carlose Carrasco and Noah Syndergaard haven’t pitched a single frame in the 2021 season. Outside of the majors the pitching depth charts look rather bleak.

 

Mets Top Active Prospect Starting Pitchers

 

1. Thomas Szapucki – He is still starting but the Mets seem to have determined that his role will be in the bullpen. With injuries plaguing the Mets they still haven’t managed to give him a chance.
2. J.T. Ginn – While the future for Ginn may still be bright, that future is unlikely to arrive in the next three years. He’s pitching for St. Lucie.
3. Franklyn Kilome – If Szapucki has only a 25% chance of remaining a starter I’d rank Kilome’s chances under 5%.
4. Tylor Megill – While Megill has shown great stuff this season, he would not rank in the Top 5 starting pitching prospects of most teams.
5. Tony Dibrell – In some farm systems, Tony Dibrell would likely not even reside in their Top 20 prospects.
6. Jose Butto – The next best active pitcher in the Met system doesn’t even project as a back of the rotation starter.

 

With Matt Alan and Harol Gonzalez injured and Robert Dominguez waiting for his chance to start, the Mets can’t even put together a reasonable depth chart of 10 starting pitchers. Now, many teams don’t have a three headed beast like Francisco Alvarez, Ronny Mauricio and Brett Baty at the top of the farm system but the pitching core looks very weak.

 

Because of this, you can expect to see the Mets draft very heavily from the College pitcher market in the draft as they need new blood that won’t be five years away from a major league impact.

 

Updated June Top 20 Prospects

 

1. Francisco Alvarez, C: (Up 1)

He hasn’t blown through Advanced A but gets boosted up the rankings because of defense. Alvarez looks like he has the talent to make the cut as a major league catcher and even be a net asset to the team defensively. His compatriot at shortstop is biding time before a position change.

1. Ronny Mauricio, SS: (Down 1)

Mauricio falls from the Top spot and almost dropped to 3rd. The Mets need to start evaluating a new home for Mauricio, who doesn’t seem like he’s long for short. A move to third doesn’t seem to make much sense thanks to Baty which makes the outfield his best option. Mauricio’s bat translates to him hitting at almost any position but it would be good to see if he was open to and capable of a shift into center or right field.

1. Brett Baty, 3B: (Even)

You can make a very cogent argument that Baty should be the Top prospect on the team but instead he holds at 3rd. The corner infielder has begun to display his power and the results have been great. If he continues to produce in July the way he has in June, he’ll be the #1 prospect the next time around.

1. Mark Vientos, 3B: (Up 1)

Since Hayden Senger joined Binghamton the team’s hitting has been better. Vientos hasn’t been on fire the way that Cortes has but he’s got loads more power and seems to be finding his groove. It would take a small act of God or an injury for him to crack the Top 3.

1. Thomas Szapucki, LHP: (Down 1)

His velocity is down significantly from his minor league breakout numbers and he’s walking far too many batters but he still manages to put together strong outings. It would be good to at least give him a chance to start a game in the majors, given the injuries the Mets have suffered.

1. Matt Allan, RHP: (Even)

Injured. Ranking unlikely to change

1. J.T. Ginn, RHP: (Up 1)

The WHIP is a very good sign of things to come but you expect a better K/9 from a pitcher with as much expectation as Ginn has. Coming back from injury, one should give Ginn plenty of leeway in building up to better power numbers.

1. Franklyn Kilome, RHP: (Down 1)

He has not pitched since June 4th. Notably, he had a great start on 5/29 before his injury shortened out on the 4th.  Don’t give up on Kilome making an impact in the majors.

1. Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF: (Even)

Injured. Ranking unlikely to change

1. Alexander Ramirez, OF: (Even)

The Mets are featuring Ramirez heavily at the front-end of the St. Lucie lineup but his results haven’t jumped off the page.  His OPS is creeping closer and closer to .700 and his future still has plenty of promise to it.

1. Tylor Megill, RHP: (Up 3)

One of the fastest risers in the Mets system, Megill is pitching and pitching well for AAA Syracuse. Because the Mets do not seem to view Szapucki as a starter, it is possible that we might see Megill make a start for the injury rich Mets.

1. Robert Dominguez, RHP (Even)

Once rookie league begins you will start to see what the Mets have of their most recent international signee splash.

1. Harol Gonzalez, RHP (Even)

If he doesn’t return to the mound soon, expect this ranking to take a big dive downwards. Gonzalez has always been a workhorse and it hurts to see him miss his golden opportunity at the majors.

1. Khalil Lee, CF: (Up 3)

Back in the minors and looking much more like a player worth trading for. The question of if Lee can ever make the leap from hitting minor league pitching to the major league equivalent is not looking good.

1. Carlos Cortes, 2B/OF (Up 5)

When Carlos Cortes was moved from second base to the outfield his chances of making the majors seemed to diminish. Fast-forward two months and Cortes is making a run at being a top 10 prospect. The utility player is just good at getting hits.

1. Jaylen Palmer, Util: (Down 1)

One might actually be concerned that Palmer’s exposure to Shervyen Newton has hurt him. He’s striking out much in the same way Newton was always famous for. Prospects don’t last on the Top 20 if they average over 1 strikeout per game and a slugging percentage under .300.

1. Adrian Hernandez, OF: (Down 1)

Shifted to the Development List.  Let us all hope this improves his offensive output as his 2021 season was off to a terrible start.

1. Wagner Lagrange, OF: (Up 4)

The Mets long tradition of spending money on fourth and fifth outfielders via free agency could be brought to an end thanks to the competent performance of Lagrange.

1. Tony Dibrell, RHP: (Even)

Dibrell looks like a player with a ceiling of being a fifth starter. That doesn’t sound like much but it still makes him have an impact potential.  Dibrell has been less effective since Megill’s departure.

1. Jake Mangum, CF: (Up 3)

It is an up year for Mangum, whose newfound power has been a revelation. Since his promotion to AA that power has held but he’s been surging in strikeouts and watching his OPS dip. Adjustments need to be made if he’s going to stick in the Top 20.

 

 

Notable Movement:

 

Hayden Senger, C: For a second month Senger’s surge continues with him rising another 10 spots in the Month of June. For a player to start at 48 to rise to 28 is clearly not impossible but the going gets much tougher from here on out.