On February 23, 2021, Taijuan Walker was introduced as the newest Mets player. Signed for a guaranteed two-year deal valued at $17 million, the deal included a player option for another year for $6 million or a $3 million buyout that can increase to $8.5 million depending on performance. Walker was signed to be the fifth starter and give the team some innings but at 28 years old still be young enough to offer some upside.
In reviewing some published pieces this past offseason, a Tigers blogger wrote that it would be a “bad idea” to go after Walker and would be better off with Rick Porcello. Conversely, a Milwaukee blogger felt that signing Walker would be genius and he could be a co-ace with their other two 27-year-old aces, Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff. In fact, the writer, John Egan, called Walker a pitcher with potential lights-out stuff and wrote, “Walker is the perfect starting pitcher to fall through the cracks of free agency. Over his MLB career, he has a 35-34 record, 3.84 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. Those numbers don’t scream elite, but if you watch film or saw him in 2020, the guy has impressive stuff. A lot of teams will stay away with his history of injuries, but Milwaukee has nothing to lose by signing a solid pitcher. Before his injuries, Walker was always a solid pitcher. 2020 showed that he is still a reliable starter. And with team salaries around baseball expected to drop, a pitcher like Walker is definitely in the wheelhouse for Milwaukee. There is always a chance a big market team could grab him on a two-year, $20MM deal.” Good call John.
It seems the only people that believed in Walker besides Egan, were in the Mets Front Office. Even Steamer and ZIPS projections offered a 1.4 WHIP and an ERA north of 4.50. In May, Walker told the press that the Mets were the only team to make him an offer. It sounded impossible then, but it appears even his previous team – the Blue Jays – were only willing to offer a one-year deal but were rebuffed by Walker’s agent, so they didn’t offer anything. But Toronto should have known the Walker was a changed pitcher better than any other team.
Coming out of his missing almost all of 2018 and 2019 due to Tommy John surgery, Walker changed his arsenal. First, in 2020 he toned down the use of his four seamer from 60% to 40%. In fact, FanGraphs has Walker at only 30% for the four seamer this year and 26% for the two seamer. Also in 2020, he featured his cutter to combat righties from a previously paltry 6.7% of the time to 21.6% and this year it’s at 22.3%. And in 2020, Walker introduced a new pitch, a splitter for the portsiders. He threw it 17.9% in its initial year of use and this year at 11.8%.
These changes allowed Walker to excel against righties last year, but not so much against lefties. His OPS against lefties was .869 while against righties it was .515. This year, Walker has mastered his splitter much better the OPS against lefties is .495 with a still a well above average .610 against righties.
Looking over Walker’s performance history, he has never been bad in any of his tenures with any organization. It was very possibly a young pitcher learning, as we see from the changes following his TJ surgery, and that studying and learning are now paying off. His fWAR is 2.2 while his bWAR is 1.8. With either measure, Walker has already outperformed his contract this year as WAR is usually around $6 million per year in negotiations.
Ok, so while the Mets obviously did their homework, what kept the other teams from not putting some faith in Walker? After all, there is an old saying that if you think you’re sane and the rest of the world is nuts, it’s probably the other way around. So, why weren’t the Mets affected by the pitcher that only pitched 160 innings in a season one time in eight years and had an ERA of 4.10 over his last three full seasons? After all, besides the previously mentioned red flags of nagging injuries, a “successful” small pitching sample of only 11 starts in 2020 still had Walker at a 4.56 FIP, a 1.4 HR/9 and a 3.2 BB/9. So, were the Mets just lucky so far or did they see what Egan saw?
Taijuan Walker was a great signing. But, we still need pitching. Who knows what Syndergaard will do and who knows what he will do in free agency. Plus Stroman will be asking for a big deal.
I read an article suggesting that the Mets trade for German Marquez in a Rockies fire sale. I think it is a good idea. He is controllable through next year at an affordable rate.
Mr. Walker certainly has been a quality signing through half a season…hopefully the balance of the deal will work out as well. It would be hard to determine whether they “knew something” as they were linked with many names that wound up signing elsewhere. My recollection is that the Mets were hot for Paxton before the Mariners did them a huge favor and overpaid. And for the price tag and baggage, the Dodgers did the Mets a huge favor by luring Bauer. But, then Cohen went and overpaid Mr. Lindor to offset those blessings…as the Met world turns.
With pitching, it may be better to be lucky than good…after all, that’s how we got “The Franchise”.
There are surprises and disappointments every year on every team. 1 year does not make a trend so to fully answer your question we will have to wait until next year.
IE. Dylan Bundy. Magical 2020, finished 9th in the cy young balloting – did the Angels get lucky? 2021 answered that as a resounding Yes because now this year he’s reverted back and been even worse than his career norms.
Third option could be credit to the pitching coach/staff. Maybe Walker met someone on the staff that figured something out in him and something clicked and so now he’s at this new level.
But, Walker completely redid his repertoire and added two new pitches. So, this isn’t the same pitcher while I don’t know if Bundy made any adjustments year over year.
FWIW – both Scott Ferguson and I had the Mets signing Walker in our “offseason in a day” articles back in September. I had the Mets giving him a 4/$72 deal while Scott was much closer to what Walker actually signed for.
In the Paxton/Kluber/Walker etc conversations…Walker always seemed to be the best bet for me as well.
Obviously the Mets were lucky with Walker because they explored other options before him. He wasn’t their first choice and was probably their last choice. Alderson/ Scott shouldn’t get credit with their insight on this signing. They probably saw a average, middle of the rotation starter that had upside because he was 28 years old and the rotation still needed to be filled. I don’t know why other teams didn’t consider Walker. Going into the last off season, my expectations for the Mets was to obtain three starting pitchers better than Peterson. They did that in Stroman, Carrasco, and Walker. I liked the signing and Walker has exceeded expectations.
The safe bet is that the Mets got lucky. If they knew something, they should have jumped sooner. I liked Walker because of the relative youth of his arm. Tommy John has morphed from the stain it once was, and soon it could be considered a plus if most pitchers with it stay healthy and are able to throw just as hard.
I expect Syndergaard to bounce all the way back, but we still have to see if he’s more than just a good arm. Does he have the mentality to consistently pitch well, eat up innings, win close games… these are not Tommy John related.
Taijuan is a gamer… I love the guy on our team… way way more than I do Stroman, who still has to put a second half together …
I agree that the Mets were very fortunate, but as I responded to Name above, Walker retooled his repertoire and added two new pitches. That must be considered…
Nothing indicates the Mets had some special knowledge about him before he signed. He was cheap due to his injury history. But he always pitched well when healthy. As long as he stays healthy, it will look to be a smart signing. If he gets hurt in August, I’m sure some will say I Told You So. Let’s enjoy it and hope he stays off the IL the next 18 months.